"Next stop on the Artic Express....Arizona!"

[azsnowman]

Doesn't sound like too much, if ANY snow for Christmas day, it WILL however, be a "BLUE Christmas!" It is gonna be a White Christmas *sorta*...we still have snow in the shaded areas so..........

Here's a snippet of the NAFD from NWS/NOAA FLAG:

FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE INTENSIFIED THE FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH. SO LOCATIONS THAT ARE NORMALLY WINDY IN NORTHEAST FLOW REGIMES CAN EXPECT VERY WINDY CONDITIONS STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND LASTING INTO THURSDAY. RECENT MODEL RUNS ARE SUGGESTING THAT A CLOSED-LOW COULD DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN CHANGE THAT WOULD OCCUR TO THE FORECAST WOULD BE THE INTRODUCTION OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. IT WOULD LIKELY RAPIDLY DRY OUT BEHIND THE COLD CORE OF THE LOW WITH GENERALLY DRY BUT COLD WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAILING INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY

Dennis

[rainstorm]

[azsnowman]

Throw in a *little* snow and you have something that, well, makes it FEEL like Christmas!

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN OF A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY TUESDAY...WITH THE TROUGH TRANSITIONING TO THE HIGH PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES HAS BEEN FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH ARIZONA ON TUESDAY. THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD INTRODUCING PRECIP TO NORTHERN ARIZONA ON TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SHORTWAVE. THIS LOOKS PLAUSIBLE SINCE THE ATMOS BECOMES VERY DRY AND COLD BY WEDNESDAY TO REALLY SUPPORT ANY PRECIP WITH PASSAGE OF THE SECOND AND MUCH STRONGER VORT MAX. LATEST 12Z GFS IS SHOWING MUCH WEAKER LIFT WITH THE STRONGER VORT MAX. WE HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LOW PRECIP CHC`S ON TUESDAY MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...WHERE THE PRIMARY THREAT OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED. STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MAY WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY THIS WEEK...ESPECIALLY DOWN WIND OF HIGH TERRAIN AREAS (SOUTHWEST OF THE SAN FRANCISCO PEAKS AND OTHER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND KAIBAB PLATEAU). THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE THE STRONG NORTHERNLY COLD ADVECTIVE PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO THE EAST.

[azsnowman]

Could be VERY interesting the next coupla dayz! Take note of the last paragraph.....if this IS indeed going to be the COLDEST of the season, "HOLY COW!" We've ALREADY had RECORD COLD temps and now it's going to be even COLDER

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/flag

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FXUS65 KFGZ 200859 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF 230 AM MST MON DEC 20 2004 .SYNOPSIS...FOR TODAY...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ON TUESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING WINDY AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. COLDER...BUT DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY. MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION...A LONG-WAVE RIDGE WAS LOCATED OFF THE WEST COAST WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THIS MORNING. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS A SERIES OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE LONG-WAVE PATTERN WILL HELP TO RETROGRADE THE EAST COAST TROUGH TO A POSITION OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY THURSDAY. FOR TODAY EXPECT MILD WEATHER CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH JUST A SLIGHT COOL DOWN OVER HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AS THE FIRST IN THE SERIES OF SHORT-WAVES BRUSHES NORTHERN ARIZONA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK EXPECT COLD AND WINDY WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA AS THE LONG-WAVE PATTERN RETROGRADES AND A POLAR AIR MASS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT MODELS SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE COULD SNEAK INTO ARIZONA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT...JUST AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT MODELS ARE DEVELOPING SOME PRECIPITATION. THINK THE MESO ETA HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS WITH JUST A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS INDICATED. THE GFS IS SHOWING MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NUMBERS BUT LOOKING AT VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS OVER NORTHEAST ARIZONA THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT APPEAR VERY WEAK. THE GFS IS LIKELY OVERDOING THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA FROM ABOUT THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTH FOR NOW.


BEYOND TUESDAY...WINDY AND COLD...ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTHWARD. THIS WILL EASILY BE THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE YEAR.



Dennis

[azsnowman]

If it's gonna get COLDER than THIS...... sitting at a BALMY 12.2° at the moment with a N/NW wind of 14, talk about frozen CHESTNUTS

Dennis

[rainstorm]

hehe

[azsnowman]

"YIPPEEEEEE!" Wind in EXCESS of 50 MPH...temps in the 10's to 20's "Ahhhhh, PERFECT snowman weather

Dennis

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff
925 am MST Monday Dec 20 2004


Synopsis...for today...expect clear skies and light winds.
Temperatures will be well above normal over most areas. On
Tuesday...a strong cold front will bring much cooler conditions
along with a slight chance of rain and snow showers. Another surge
of even colder air will arrive Wednesday and Thursday with windy
conditions also developing. Moderating temperatures and dry
conditions are expected over the Christmas Holiday weekend.


&&


Discussion...the high amplitude ridge that has given US fair and
warm weather for the past few days is now retrograding into the
Pacific. Today will be the last warm and relatively calm day this
week as disturbances begin to plunge southward on the eastern
periphery of the ridge. The first of these disturbances can be seen
on water vapor satellite just now moving into the Pacific northwest.
Model forecasts agree that this shortwave will move across southwest
Arizona Tuesday. Best dymamics will be to our south...but the
deepest saturation should be over northeast Arizona along the cold front.
The airmass over northern Arizona this morning is very dry...but the GFS
brings moisture in with the system on the northwest flow. Will
probably not be increasing probability of precipitation for Tuesday too much from where they
are now...around 20 percent. The big story for Wednesday and
Thursday will be the much colder temperatures and locally strong
northeast winds. The exact timing of the coldest air and the
strongest winds has been changing each model run. The current runs
indicate that the coldest day will be Thursday as another strong
shortwave drives southward into eastern Arizona...pulling some of the
Arctic airmass with it. It will be windy along and just downstream
from the higher terrain Wednesday. However...the windiest period now
appears to be Thursday into Friday as 7h wind in the GFS is 40-50kt
with a strong surface pressure gradient. If the GFS pans out...we will
need wind advisories for higher terrain and downslope areas for that
time period. Only update to the forecast this morning will be to
decrease cloud cover for today...looks like a mostly sunny
afternoon.

[azsnowman]

Just remember to bring in the "Brass Monkey!"

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/flag

THE EXACT TIMING OF THE COLDEST AIR AND THE STRONGEST WINDS HAS BEEN CHANGING EACH MODEL RUN. THE CURRENT GFS RUN INDICATES THAT THE COLDEST DAY WILL BE THURSDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE DRIVES SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN AZ...PULLING SOME OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH IT. IT WILL BE WINDY ALONG AND JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE WINDIEST PERIOD NOW APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS 7H WIND IN THE GFS IS 40-50KT WITH A STRONG SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. IF THE GFS PANS OUT...WE WILL NEED WIND ADVISORIES FOR HIGHER TERRAIN AND DOWNSLOPE AREAS FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. THE NORTHEAST FLOW THURSDAY SHOULD USHER IN THE COLDEST AIRMASS SO FAR.


Dennis

[Scorpion]

Great news! The Rim Country can sure use all the snow and cold they can get! Been way above average temps the past few winters.

[azsnowman]

Great news! The Rim Country can sure use all the snow and cold they can get! Been way above average temps the past few winters.

Yup....9 years and counting! I've lived here almost ALL my life (39 years now) and this has been a pretty decent start to somewhat of a *normal* winter....I've received over 38" thus far starting mid November, SO....x's his fingers, toes and what EVER else I can cross

Dennis

[W13]

Looking pretty good for you at the moment.

[Aslkahuna]

This will be a dry front for the most part since the trajectory is totally over land.

Steve

[Sean in New Orleans]

Hey Dennis...how far are you from Utah? I do some skiing at Brianhead.

[azsnowman]

Hey Dennis...how far are you from Utah? I do some skiing at Brianhead.

Honestly, I really don't know If I had to make an educated guess, I'd say, as the crow flies, somewhere around 160-170 miles. I'm VERY close to the New Mexico border...

Steve, yep....this IS a very dry system, in fact, all the snow has been taken out of the forecast just COLD and VERY, VERY WINDY (my FAVORITE kind of weather)

Dennis

[Aslkahuna]

Pinetop is around 34N while most of the ski resorts in UT are at 40N so 6 degrees of latitude equals 414 statute miles. That's as the Aardvark flies. By road it's much longer since you have to angle around the Grand Canyon. To the state line it's 180 nautical miles or 207 statute miles.

Steve