MA Snow Is A Bust
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MA Snow Is A Bust
Mid-Atlantic snow is a bust...plus no snow on the horizon as temps shoot above average next week into January and cold air goes WEST!
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- Yankeegirl
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Yes it is not a very ideal pattern for major snow storms right now.But really was it to begin with? Strong postive NAO with no 50-50 low and a strong Paf jet is simpley is not a faverble pattern you want to see for major and historect east coast snowstorms in.While the paf ssts are geting really close I agree with some others that it not there quite yet.But it very very close those.Some are saying this is repeat of 2001-2002 and that is riducless because the patterns this year are not any where close of that winter.Really the over all long range calls are over all looking really good this far.And the trend is still very much like what HM and Dt and Don has been stateing since November and HM since the summer.Is that the seacond hafe of winter 2004-2005 is going to be much more active and severe cold and snow fall wise then the first hafe.And so far that looks exacltey on track so far.So that means we are likey going to have to get through after this periold of one more wraiting warm periold in January.But doing that time the Mid west sould be geting into the action again but colder as the pattern rebuilds or reloads for mid to late Januarey for what will be what we have been wraiting for and forecasting the big change finnlly to are winter lock in winter pattern as the ssts sould be in place by that time.So let just be pancent.Some of the best winters on record have been those that have accually accoured the seacond hafe Febuarey into March.We are just seeing a slow progressing of are winter pattern.But it will diffentey lock in eventurey.And we will in my opinion and hopefully see a faverble pattern set up also for a more predoment negative NAO set up Mid to Late januarey and febuarey.
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Re: MA Snow Is A Bust
BigEyedFish wrote:Mid-Atlantic snow is a bust...plus no snow on the horizon as temps shoot above average next week into January and cold air goes WEST!
We received about 1 1/2 inches of snow in Fredericksburg. I drove up into D.C. and it was just a trace. Not the big storm we were hoping for.
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Back to the NAO the Alantic set up accually favers a negative NAO.But there are other factors at the moment working against it which is why the NAO has been so postive right now.Once these other factors change likey sometime in January the NAO will likey start sifting more negative in the means.with this past event I agree 100 percent but we also have to remember in this pattern the modles are having serious trouble and any body paying attation on the gfs is only going to be dissapointed.While the GFS was consistent in forecasting a big storm.It was consistenty wrong.Which is normally the case with the GFS.beleave me I a'm a big time snow fan.But when the pattern is working againt it.You have to be realisk about it.In this pattern the ECMWF is the modle to pay more attation to and rely on.Because the GFS is going to say it lighty be crap time and time again.It simpley amazes me more forecastes even relys on this model as much as some do.Giving its history.
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As predicted 2004 will indeed be a bust for MA snows, in fact, I-95 from Richmond to BWI, what a YAWN!
I see no real action or threat in the near future in these areas.
The big snows did not even materialize for NYC to Boston, as some predicted would happen in December 2004.
On the bright side for you snow lovers... The MA will have snow before winter is over with the best chance in late January 2005, mid February 2005, and early March 2005.
If you need any further info just ask BEF
I see no real action or threat in the near future in these areas.
The big snows did not even materialize for NYC to Boston, as some predicted would happen in December 2004.
On the bright side for you snow lovers... The MA will have snow before winter is over with the best chance in late January 2005, mid February 2005, and early March 2005.
If you need any further info just ask BEF

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The problem I think is some think this year is like winter of 2002-2003 yes we do have weak El nino BUT what different this year then 2002-2003 is that everything was all ready in place by november in what was telling us to get ready.This year those factors are in a slower progressing wise then in 2002-2003.And that is the cold and warm pools off the west coast .We are geting very very close those of where we need those ssts.And very likey by Januarey it will be there.Many just have to be pancent this winter.in fact most of the anlogs were showing that this year the frist hafe of winter 2004-2005 would likey suck for the east but be rocking for the mid west.But the Seacond hafe would be much more active and severe for the East.Bottom line I think we are very much seeing a winter where the cold starts west and progresss east word in the means in time.Which would be mid to Late January.So it is still coming.It just coming a bit later this year.
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