Please explain something - GFS, ETA

southerngale · #1 Postby **southerngale** » Tue Dec 21, 2004 2:22 pm

Everyone is saying the models have now abandoned the chance of snow. Apparently, I still have no clue as to how to read these models because when I saw this, the 12z GFS, I thought I was VERY close to the freezing and snow area. We all know it won't turn out to be EXACTLY what any model says 3 days out so to be this close to any snow seemed a bit exciting. Now, can someone explain to me what the model really says?

And I thought the 12z ETA looked even better for my area. Geesh, what do I know?

Website · #2 Postby **Brent** » Tue Dec 21, 2004 2:37 pm

It's too warm on the first and last map. It'd be rain or maybe a little mix of sleet.

2nd map is just the upper air pattern.

Forgot to mention... it may be too dry even if the precip shows up on radar. It's called virga and it wouldn't reach the ground.

#3 Postby **Stormcenter** » Tue Dec 21, 2004 2:40 pm

[quote="Brent"]It's too warm on the first and last map. It'd be rain or maybe a little mix of sleet.

2nd map is just the upper air pattern.

Forgot to mention... it may be too dry even if the precip shows up on radar. It's called virga and it wouldn't reach the ground.[/quote/]

I thought it was called viagra? :lol:

#4 Postby **Aslkahuna** » Tue Dec 21, 2004 2:42 pm

Based upon the thickness values, you don't get cold enough for the changeover to snow until the after the precipitation ends. Interesting to see what they have for AZ, haven't seen that pattern for Christmas Eve since 1987.

Steve

chadtm80 · #5 Postby **chadtm80** » Tue Dec 21, 2004 2:47 pm

Stormcenter wrote:
Brent wrote:It's too warm on the first and last map. It'd be rain or maybe a little mix of sleet.

2nd map is just the upper air pattern.

Forgot to mention... it may be too dry even if the precip shows up on radar. It's called virga and it wouldn't reach the ground.[/quote/]

I thought it was called viagra?

DANG... You beat me to it.. lol

CYCLONE MIKE · #6 Postby **CYCLONE MIKE** » Tue Dec 21, 2004 3:51 pm

How about the predicted conditions for SE LA. I am not that good at reading the model maps either. Can someone help us out?

southerngale · #7 Postby **southerngale** » Tue Dec 21, 2004 3:57 pm

Too warm? What about the 18z ETA? The 540 line goes into the GOM and it shows precipitation over my area. Does that mean snow or no? I'm really trying to understand how to read these things.

Please explain something - GFS, ETA

Please explain something - GFS, ETA

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