18Z ETA Colder and Stronger

[nin9inch9nails]

The 18Z ETA shows the SW swinging through the southwest on day three more consolidated ( less shear ) and correspondingly colder as a result of the first short moving through the Ohio valley really winding up on day three in eastern Canada. Over running snow breaks out on the Texas gulf coast on the morning of the 24th while west Texas gets lightly blanketed as a result of PVA from the upper engery rotating through the area.

By noon on the 24th the northern extent of the snowshield has moved down to Corpus Christi as a 1012mb low tries to get organized in the western gulf.

Snow approaches the Atchafalaya Bay on the LA coast from the southwest by nightfall Christmas Eve and continues to scoot east through the early morning hours on the 25th.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

The 18Z ETA shows the SW swinging through the southwest on day three more consolidated ( less shear ) and crrespondingly colder as a result of the first short moving through the Ohio valley really winding up on day three in eastern Canada. Over running snow breaks out on the Texas gulf coast on the morning of the 24th while while Texas gets blanketed as a result of PVA from the upper engery rotating through the area.

By noon on the 24th the northern extent of the snowshield has moved down to Corpus Christi as a 1012mb low tries to get organized in the western gulf.

[southerngale]

The 18Z ETA shows the SW swinging through the southwest on day three more consolidated ( less shear ) and crrespondingly colder as a result of the first short moving through the Ohio valley really winding up on day three in eastern Canada. Over running snow breaks out on the Texas gulf coast on the morning of the 24th while while Texas gets blanketed as a result of PVA from the upper engery rotating through the area.

By noon on the 24th the northern extent of the snowshield has moved down to Corpus Christi as a 1012mb low tries to get organized in the western gulf.

Snow approaches the Atchafalaya Bay on the LA cost from the southwest by nightfall Christmas Eve and continues to scoot east through the early morning hours on the 25th.

Wow, maybe I did understand the 18z ETA a little after all. I posted about it in the Please explain something thread.

[aggiecutter]

If the 18z were to verify, I could get clocked pretty good uphere in Texarkana tomorrow afternoon. The ETA has heavy precip and I'm sitting just north of the rain-snow line. The trend of the last 2 runs has been encouraging, especially since it's only 24hrs away.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _030.shtml

The 18z GFS is singing the same tune. Things are starting to look-up, atleast the trend is my friend.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _030.shtml

[misty]

I am not really good at reading models, (trying to learn) local mets are saying all of the accumulation will be north arkansas. Any hope for southwest arkansas to see a little. I know it is warm here right now and I am sure it is pretty much the same in Texarkana .

[Yankeegirl]

So what is the call for the Houston area?

[aggiecutter]

The latest trends for southwest arkansas look good as the thickness profile of the atmosphere looks very favorable for snow at the time of max moisture. I'm guessing 1-3 inches, maybe more because this area is on or just north of the rain-snow line, north of I-30, which includes Texarkana, Hope, DeQueen and Nashville.

The problem with the northern part of the state may be moisture. It wouldn't surpise me if parts of central and southern Arkansas got more snow than the north. I think Little Rock will be the big winner here with 6 or more inches.

[misty]

I hope that comes to pass, I am around Hope and would love to see it!!

[Janie34]

I am not really good at reading models, (trying to learn) local mets are saying all of the accumulation will be north arkansas. Any hope for southwest arkansas to see a little. I know it is warm here right now and I am sure it is pretty much the same in Texarkana .

Well, take the GFS for example. If you look at the 1000-500mb/mean sea level pressure chart, your best first guess for the rain/snow line is the 540 mb line, or a thickness value of 5400 meters. This would indicate that the air temperature of the atmosphere is 0*C (or 32*F) from the surface to 500 mb, which would suggest that any precipitation in the area would fall as the wintry type. Keep in mind that it's only a rough estimate, there are many other factors to consider besides just the 540 decameter line. I think the 1000-700mb chart is much better during the winter. GFS is generous and colours this line (the 540 Dm line) blue on the maps.

Basically, look for that blue line on the GFS 1000-500mb/MSLP chart (the 540 line), then look out for vortices, precipitation, etcetera, that sort of thing. You can really start digging into the data from there.

[Brent]

That's it... I've had it with the flip-flopety model.

Call me Friday Morning.