TX weather next 4 days

[jeff]

Strong arctic front barreling toward TX this morning.

Polar front located along the Red River will move into N TX this afternoon. Arctic air over Nebraska will surge south entering TX tonight. Temps. are currently running below zero over N and S Dakota with widespread single digits behind the arctic front.

Moisture is returning over SE TX with showers and even a few thunderstorms breaking out. Ingredients appears to be coming to together for a shot at severe weather tonight as the front moves through, but the best chances are more toward LA.

Wednesday:
Strong arctic front moves through the state with temps. rapidly falling. Highs will be in the morning with temps falling into the upper 30's and low 40's during the afternoon. Rain will continue behind the front through early afternoon, but should end before the profiles get cold enough for any winter precip. Short wave in the polar jet will produce lift over W TX with snow from Amarillo south to Lubbock and then east into the Hill Country. Accumulations of 2-6 inches will be possible with hazardous driving conditions. Will also see flurries over north TX late in the day, but no accumulation is expected.

Thursday:
Additional short wave energy rotates through the trough to our west and southwest. One such wave appears to be strong enough to force the formation of a coastal trough along the lower TX coast by Thursday evening. 850mb temps are below 0 and the 540m thickness (rough rain/snow line) is just off the coast or roughly along a line from Alice to Victoria and then east to 20 miles E of Galveston. Isentropic lifting in the 295K layer should increase cloud cover but moisture will be limited.

Thursday Night into Christmas Eve:
Critical forecast period as temps will be below freezing with some increase in moisture. Models appear to be converging on a solution of coastal troughing developing near Brownsville and moving ENE into the Gulf. Based on the latest guidance and this solution, most of the moisture will remain south of the area. Will insert a 20% chance of sleet and snow for areas south of a Pasadena to Sugarland to Edna line. Any accumulations will be extremely light if at all. We could also see some flurries over the rest of the area as the 500mb short wave pulls across, however the uncertainty is to great at this time to include in the forecast.

Note: NWS Austin/San Antonio have inserted freezing rain into the forecast for Thursday night. Given the profiles anything that falls will be frozen and I would go with a P-type of snow instead of ZR.

Christmas Eve Night into Christmas Day:
Skies clear late Friday allowing excellent radiational conditions. Highs Friday will only be in the mid to upper 30's, and once the sun sets the temps will drop like a rock. Will go with upper teens northern counties to low 20's central counties and upper 20's coast. Most locations will see a hard freeze with below freezing temps for 7-10 hours.

This remains a low confidence forecast with respect to pecrip. chances and P-type Thursday and Friday.

Forecast:

Today: mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the low to mid 70's.

Tonight: cloudy with a 60% chance of thunderstorms. Some could be severe with damaging winds and tornadoes. Lows in the low to mid 60's. S wind 5-10 mph

Wednesday: cloudy and turning much colder. Temps falling from the 60's early to the upper 30's by late afternoon. A 60% chance of rain. North winds 20-30mph and gusty. Wind chills falling into the low 20's.

Wednesday night: cloudy with a 20% chance of evening rain. Lows in the lower 30's. N winds 20-25mph and gusty. Winds chills in the teens.

Thursday: Cloudy and cold. Highs around 40. North winds 20-25mph and gusty. Wind chills in the teens.

Thursday night: cloudy and cold with a less than 20% chance of mixed precipitation. No accumulation is expected. Lows in the upper 20's. North winds 10-15mph and gusty.

Christmas Eve: cloudy and very cold with highs in the mid to upper 30's. A 20% chance of mixed precipitation early. No accumulation is expected.

Christmas Eve night: mostly clear and very cold. Lows in the upper teens north to low 20's central to upper 20's coast.

Christmas Day: mostly sunny with highs in the low 50's. Wind light.

Jeff L

[southerngale]

Thanks Jeff...excellent discussion.

Let's all do the snow dance and hope Santa is paying attention!!