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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
258 PM EST TUE DEC 21 2004
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING IN THE RETURN FLOW. THIS WILL BE MOST NOTICABLE BY AN
INCREASE IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THE ONSET OF A
STRATOCU DECK FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY. MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL
LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT WHEN BETTER UPPER
SUPPORT ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY
WITH DRY AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT.
BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST
OF I-95. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE A LITTLE SLIMMER ALONG THE COAST
SINCE THE BEST DYNAMICS SHEAR OFF THE TO NE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS SHAPING UP IN THE EXTENDED. MODELS
BEAR LITTLE RESEMBLANCE TO THEIR COUNTERPARTS 24 HOURS AGO AND SHOW
ONLY LIMITED RUN-TO-RUN AGREEMENT AND WITH EACH OTHER. NEW EXTENDED
FORECAST IS A BLEND TOWARD THE 12Z HPC GRAPHICS...00Z ECMWF...AND
00Z GFS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES.
THE GREAT 2004 CHRISTMAS SNOWSTORM LOOKS TO BE IN JEOPARDY AS DEEP
MOISTURE MAY NOT DEVELOP AND COLD AIR ONLY MAKES IT PART OF THE
WAY INTO THE AREA. HAVE HELD ONTO 20 POPS INLAND (MAINLY SNOW) AND
30 POPS ALONG THE COAST (MIXED PRECIP) FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THE TREND IS DEFINITELY TOWARD DOWNPLAYING THIS
EVENT AND LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE POPS ENTIRELY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES CHRISTMAS DAY LOOK SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN
PROJECTIONS 24 HOURS AGO GIVEN LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION.
MODELS BECOME MORE CONFUSED/CONFUSING HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. EXTENDED RUNS THIS MORNING INDICATED LOW PRES
MOVING WELL OFFSHORE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE NEW 12Z GFS NOW
INDICATES A DEEP CUTOFF LOW MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS DURING THIS
PERIOD. GIVEN THE POOR TRACK RECORD THE GFS HAS HAD WITH CUT OFF
LOWS IN THE EXTENDED AND ITS KNOWN BIAS WITH DEEP TROUGHS...HAVE
OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE EARLIER THINKING OF A WEAKER SYSTEM MOVING TO
OUR SE. ONLY TIME WILL TELL WHERE LATER MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND
OBSERVED REALITY...END UP.
&&
