New Orleans forecast discussion

[bfez1]

000
FXUS64 KLIX 211032
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
430 AM CST TUE DEC 21 2004

.UPDATE...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A 1027MB HIGH OVER SOUTH
CAROLINA/GEORGIA AND SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER EAST
TEXAS...ARKANSAS...NORTH LOUISIANA AND PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI.
DEWPOINT READINGS WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB WITH 50S OFF THE COAST.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...SHORT WAVE OVER
MINNESOTA AND ANOTHER SHORT THE GREAT BASIN AND A STRONGER SHORT
WAVE OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS.

WE HAVE SEVERAL FORECAST PROBLEMS WITH THIS PACKAGE. WILL SURFACE
BASE INSTABILITY BE IN PLACE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND
HOW FAR SOUTH WILL THE LOW FRIDAY. SHORT WAVE(S) OUT WEST WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL INCREASE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP TO 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES BY
12Z WED OVER FORECAST AREA. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED GOOD
COVERAGE STRCU FIELD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. ERGO...LOW LEVEL WILL
LIKELY RETURN TODAY. GFS AND ETA CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A LOW ALONG THE
ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY OR OVER NORTHWEST GULF BY WEDNESDAY AND TRACK
THE LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA 00Z THU. GFS AND ETA ISOTACH
ANALYSIS FOR 00Z THU SHOWED A JET MAX OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
ANOTHER WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND CENTRAL TEXAS
COAST...PLACING AREAS FROM SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA TO NORTH MISSISSIPPI
UNDERNEATH THE JET COUPLET. MODEL SOUNDING OFF OF ETA SHOWED THE
CAPE VALUES NEAR 1200 J/KG NEAR THE COAST AND NEAR 700 J/KG ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT. ERGO...WILL CONTINUE CONVECTIVE WORDING
AND INSERT POSSIBLE SEVERE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHORT
WAVE WILL LIFT EAST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE PUSHING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MEANWHILE...A FULL LATITUDE POSITIVELY TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM HUDSON
BAY TO SOUTHWEST CONUS BY THURSDAY AND PUSH EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THICKNESS VALUES WILL START TO DECREASE THURSDAY 12Z.
LOOKING AT 1000 TO 850MB AT 12Z FRI...THE MAGIC THICKNESS VALUE OF
1300M LINE MOVES AS FAR SOUTH AS BOOTHVILLE OFF GFS...ETA 1300M LINE
OVER BELLE CHASE. THESE LINE MOVE SOUTH DURING THE DAY. ACCORDING TO
GFS AND ETA...ANY PRECIP NORTH OF THESE LINES WILL BE SNOW. LOOKING
AT 1000 TO 700MB AT 18Z FRI...THE MAGIC THICKNESS VALUE OF 2800M OFF
OF GFS AND ETA IS DISPLAYED ACROSS BTR TO PIB. BOTH ETA AND GFS
DEVELOPS PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST HALF ZONES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 850MB WIND FLOW WILL BE NORTHERLY AND BELOW
0C ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN RAIN-SNOW MIX...BUT IT
START AS SNOW AND REMAIN SNOW ON THE NORTHERN PARTS OF PRECIP FIELD.
TOO EARLY TO TALK ABOUT ACCUMULATION FOR NOW. COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

ONCE AGAIN...FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BE THE COLDEST NIGHT THUS FAR THIS
SEASON WITH TEENS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-10/LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND
ALONG THE MS COAST WITH A HARD FREEZE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. DRY AND COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.UPDATED POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 69 56 66 37 / 10 60 80 70
BTR 72 58 69 39 / 10 60 80 50
MSY 72 59 72 43 / 10 60 70 70
GPT 67 57 68 43 / 10 60 70 70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

$$

09/22

[Lindaloo]

I still see the word snow. lol.

[BreinLa]

Yep see Bonnie hehehehe Let it Snow Let it Snow Let it Snow

[chadtm80]

I dont notice that extra "bounce" in bonnies step today.. lol

[CaneCurious]

a local met on anohter forum is saying that the new runs of the Euro and GFS are showing the cold not getting here. No white Christmas for us.

[Stormcenter]

a local met on anohter forum is saying that the new runs of the Euro and GFS are showing the cold not getting here. No white Christmas for us.

Just think positive.
I have a feeling that mother nature will give the
coast residents an early Christmas gift no matter
what the GFS (yeah I remember how well it did during
Hurricane season,lol) it predicting.

[bfez1]

I dont notice that extra "bounce" in bonnies step today.. lol

That's because I am down, then up then down!!!
This weather is driving me crazy!!! Pass the Prozac, please!

I want snow so bad I can't stand it!!!

[PTrackerLA]

FYI, that was the discussion from early this morning. They still haven't updated the discussion for some reason but I'm eager to see what they have to say about the 18z GFS run which shows alot more precip.

[Janie34]

NWS Mobile has updated the AFD. This is from the 3:30 pm update:

STRONG ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL MOVE
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
IN RESPONSE OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD...SENDING GULF MOISTURE OVER THE TOP OF THE
COLD DOME CONTINUING TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS STILL
SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS BOTH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH NOT
QUITE SO MUCH SO AS YESTERDAY. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT
TODAY ON THE 1000-850 MB AND 1000-700 THICKNESSES...WITH THE ETA AND
CANADIAN GEM KEEPING THE AREA CERTAINLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN
CHANGING TO SLEET THEN SLEET AND SNOW...BUT THE 06Z AND 12Z GFS RUNS
HAVE COME IN A BIT WARMER TODAY. AS VACILLATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THE MODELS IN SUCH A MARGINAL EVENT AND A MAJORITY OF MODEL
GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS THE SPECIAL EVENT...WILL STAY WITH THE
CURRENT PRECIPITATION TYPE WORDING OF RAIN CHANGING TO SLEET THEN
SNOW DURING THE PERIOD...GENERALLY SOUTH OF A HIGHLAND HOME TO
WIGGINS LINE. EVAPORATIONAL COOLING MAY ALSO AID THE PRECIPITATION
ALONG TO A WINTRY MIX FOR BOTH PERIODS AS WELL

.

[CajunMama]

Here's part of our latest discussion out of Lake Charles...I love it when they have a sense of humor!

COLD AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE AND FOR THOSE LOOKING FOR SANTA OR SOMETHING WHITE FALLING FROM THE SKY ON THURSDAY MORNING OR FRIDAY EVENING... MAYBE... AND THATS A BIG MAYBE.

TEMPS TO REMAIN COLD THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY...WELL AT-LEAST FORSOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA FOLKS...BUT IF YOU ARE FROM THE BLUE STATES YOU MIGHT GET THE FEELING SPRING IS IN THE AIR.


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lch/cgi-bin/pro ... =LCHAFDLCH

[PTrackerLA]

Here's part of our latest discussion out of Lake Charles...I love it when they have a sense of humor!

COLD AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE AND FOR THOSE LOOKING FOR SANTA OR SOMETHING WHITE FALLING FROM THE SKY ON THURSDAY MORNING OR FRIDAY EVENING... MAYBE... AND THATS A BIG MAYBE.

TEMPS TO REMAIN COLD THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY...WELL AT-LEAST FORSOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA FOLKS...BUT IF YOU ARE FROM THE BLUE STATES YOU MIGHT GET THE FEELING SPRING IS IN THE AIR.


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lch/cgi-bin/pro ... =LCHAFDLCH

Humor yes, enlightening discussion? NO! I think they really didn't know what to do with the forecast so they just started making jokes. No mention of precip Friday when all of the surrounding offices have at least a slight chance. NWS Lake Charles =