Well, as another update, the 18Z eta is more favorable for winter weather in my area, and maybe just a little slower keeping some wraparound precip through Thursday Morning. Not sure yet whether it will trend more ice or snow yet, will have to do some analysis. Will see what the NWS says in upcoming update.
I am definitely liking the trend!
UPDATE AND QUESTION: Winter Weather in the Mid-South?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
Well, I am disappointed, because the prelimary grids from the weather service indicates all rain until wednesday night, then a chance of snow. It indicates Freezing rain in the Jackson TN area.
Am a little confused, because the NWS in both Jackson MS and Huntsville are talking about light ice accumulations in their areas bounding the Memphis region but the Memphis office is keeping it all rain. I don't get that.
It is preliminary though, so it could change.
Am a little confused, because the NWS in both Jackson MS and Huntsville are talking about light ice accumulations in their areas bounding the Memphis region but the Memphis office is keeping it all rain. I don't get that.
It is preliminary though, so it could change.
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Just read the AFD from Memphis, and we are under a Winter Storm Watch now!
We (of course as always) are on the very southern fringe of it, though they say that even MS may need to be added later.
Looks like Rain mixing with and changing to Freezing rain and sleet Wednesday Afternoon with maybe a fourth inch of accumulation. Then a second round comes Wednesday Night with mostly snow, and up to 2 inches.
We (of course as always) are on the very southern fringe of it, though they say that even MS may need to be added later.
Looks like Rain mixing with and changing to Freezing rain and sleet Wednesday Afternoon with maybe a fourth inch of accumulation. Then a second round comes Wednesday Night with mostly snow, and up to 2 inches.
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Here it is....just in...
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
339 PM CST TUE DEC 21 2004
.AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SUBSTANTIAL GULF
MOISTURE IN CONCERT WITH THE COLD ARCTIC AIR...WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER STORM ACROSS THE REGION. ANY CHANGE IN
THE STORM'S PATH COULD HAVE A MAJOR INFLUENCE ON THE HEAVY SNOW
TRACK...PRECIPITATION TYPE...AND AMOUNTS.
ARZ008-009-017-018-026-MOZ113-115-221000-
CLAY AR-CRAIGHEAD AR-DUNKLIN MO-GREENE AR-LAWRENCE AR-PEMISCOT MO-
RANDOLPH AR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BAY...BLACK ROCK...BONO...BROOKLAND...
CAMPBELL...CARAWAY...CARUTHERSVILLE...CORNING...HAYTI...HOXIE...
JONESBORO...KENNETT...LAKE CITY...MALDEN...MARMADUKE...MONETTE...
PARAGOULD...PIGGOTT...POCAHONTAS...PORTAGEVILLE...RECTOR...SENATH...
STEELE AND WALNUT RIDGE
339 PM CST TUE DEC 21 2004
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST
THURSDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS TN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING.
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD MOST SECTIONS OF THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. FREEZING RAIN IS ANTICIPATED AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A QUARTER INCH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE
OVER TO ALL SNOW BY NOON. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES.
A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR. HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE ARE FORECAST TO ACCUMULATE
IN THE AFFECTED AREAS CAUSING HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. THOSE
WITH TRAVEL PLANS IN THE WARNING AREA ARE ADVISED TO CHOOSE AN
ALTERNATE ROUTE, OR SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS
UNAVOIDABLE.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.
ANY TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. IF YOU LEAVE THE SAFETY OF BEING
INDOORS, YOU ARE PUTTING YOUR LIFE AT RISK.
$$
ARZ027-028-035-036-048-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>052-088-221000-
CARROLL TN-CRITTENDEN AR-CROCKETT TN-CROSS AR-DYER TN-GIBSON TN-
HAYWOOD TN-HENRY TN-LAKE TN-LAUDERDALE TN-MADISON TN-MISSISSIPPI AR-
OBION TN-POINSETT AR-SHELBY TN-ST. FRANCIS AR-TIPTON TN-WEAKLEY TN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BARTLETT...BLYTHEVILLE...BROWNSVILLE...
COLLIERVILLE...COVINGTON...DYERSBURG...EARLE...FORREST CITY...
GERMANTOWN...GOSNELL...HARRISBURG...HUGHES...HUMBOLDT...HUNTINGDON...
JACKSON...KEISER...LEACHVILLE...LEPANTO...LUXORA...MADISON...
MANILA...MARION...MARKED TREE...MARTIN...MCKENZIE...MILAN...
MILLINGTON...OSCEOLA...PALESTINE...PARIS...PARKIN...RIPLEY...
TRENTON...TRUMANN...TURRELL...TYRONZA...UNION CITY...WEST MEMPHIS...
WILSON AND WYNNE
339 PM CST TUE DEC 21 2004
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING TO THURSDAY
MORNING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS TN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH.
A MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS EARLY AS
9 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE UP TO A QUARTER
INCH. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SLEET THEN SNOW BEHIND THE ARCTIC
COLD FRONT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES INTO THE EVENING HOURS. 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW IS FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE WATCH AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS CAN DETERIORATE RAPIDLY IN WINTER WEATHER SITUATIONS, SLOW
DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME WHEN TRAVELING. PRACTICE YOUR WINTER
SAFETY RULES, KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT, FOOD, AND WATER IN YOUR CAR
IN CASE OF EMERGENCY.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.
ANY TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. IF YOU LEAVE THE SAFETY OF BEING
INDOORS, YOU ARE PUTTING YOUR LIFE AT RISK.
$$
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SunnyThoughts
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Here in the DEEP south (Pensacola, Fla) We even have a 30% chance of snow on Friday and again 30% friday evening..and 19 degree temps. Looks like a COLD xmas at the very least, for people along the gulf coast. Keeping fingers crossed for a few flakes..would be a nice touch to a joyous christmas here, where everyone is thankful for having a roof over our heads after Ivan.
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18z ETA on BUFKIT is quite concerning. It shows precip changing to Freezing rain by 8AM Wedndesday, then Sleet in the afternoon, then snow in the evening through Thursday Morning.
Scary enough, it shows .73 inches of ice, .5 inches of that as freezing rain. That could be serious if it comes true, but I personally don't see it changing that early unless the front has a real fast movement.
It does show almost 2" of snow as well.
The trend is for the better at least for me. Even the TV guys are getting concerned now, and that can take a lot.
Scary enough, it shows .73 inches of ice, .5 inches of that as freezing rain. That could be serious if it comes true, but I personally don't see it changing that early unless the front has a real fast movement.
It does show almost 2" of snow as well.
The trend is for the better at least for me. Even the TV guys are getting concerned now, and that can take a lot.
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That certainly is intresting, and maybe the trend will continue. Was just looking at some MO obs and already nearing Freezing in KC and STL.
So will closely be watching those temperature maps and wind shifts for any implications down here.
Let us know when the snow starts there, I know you have an advisory, keep us updated!
So will closely be watching those temperature maps and wind shifts for any implications down here.
Let us know when the snow starts there, I know you have an advisory, keep us updated!
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