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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
300 PM CST TUE DEC 21 2004
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...A POTENT MID/UPR LVL
S/WV CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WL SWING INTO THE
STATE LATER TNT. THIS WL INTERACT WITH SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LYR
MOISTURE AND AN APPROACHING COLD FNT TO PRODUCE CONVECTION TWDS
MORNING ACROSS THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. THE BEST COVERAGE OF
PCPN WL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES WITH LESSER COVERAGE FURTHER
SOUTH AND WEST. AS THE COLD FNT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA AND AS THE
S/WV EXITS THE CWFA ON WED...PCPN WL END FROM WEST TO EAST. THE
INITIAL SURGE BEHIND THE COLD FNT (WHICH IS EXPECTED IN THE MORNING)
WL BE NOT THAT STRONG. IT IS NOT UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTN/EVE AND
INTO WED NIGHT THAT THE CAA AND NORTHERLY FLOW REALLY BEGINS TO
STRENGTHEN. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WED NIGHT. WITH WINDS
EXPECTED TO SETTLE DOWN SOMEWHAT ACROSS NRN AREAS...FREEZING TEMPS
APPEAR TO BE LKLY WED NIGHT. TEMPS TNT WL BE RELATIVELY MILD GIVEN
LATE DECEMEBER NORMS. HIGHS ON WED WL BE ACHIEVED IN THE MORNING
AND THEN GRADUALLY FALL THROUGHOUT THE AFTN. THE LIGHT WINDS AND
BOUNDARY LYR MOISTURE WL BE ENOUGH TO GIN UP SOME FOG TNT ALONG WITH
SOME STRATUS OVER THE EAST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS TNT GIVEN THE LINGERING HIGH SEAS AND
MARGINAL ONSHORE FLOW ALTHOUGH BOTH WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD LESSEN
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE SCA WL THEN EXPAND TO INCLUDE ALL THE WATERS
BY LATE WED AND INTO WED NIGHT AS THE CAA AND GRADIENT INCREASES.
&&
.LONG-TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...VERY INTERESTING SCENARIO
COMING UP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE
GFS IS MORE IN LINE WITH WHAT HAPPENS RATHER THAN THE ETA MODEL.
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BLAST INTO SOUTH TEXAS AS A POTENTIAL FOR
AN ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN DEVELOPS...WITH UPPER LOW REMAINING OUT
TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...GFS DEVELOPS ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN WITH
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT STARTING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BELOW 32F ON FRIDAY EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
ETA SEEMS TO BE THE ODD MODEL OUT AND WILL BUMP UP POPS FOR FRIDAY
TO CHANCE EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHWEST. WILL INCLUDE AT LEAST A
WINTERY MIX IN THE GRIDS...WITH SNOW OVER THE NORTH AND WEST AND
POSSIBLE SLEET EARLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO
CONVERGE WITH SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME TOMORROW AND PRECIP CHANCES
SEEM MORE LIKELY...MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AT
LEAST PART OF THE AREA. ISENTROPIC PATTERN DIES OFF FRIDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS TIME...MOST OF THE LONG-RANGE MODELS KEEP THE BEST ENERGY
FROM THE UPPER LOW WEST ENOUGH FROM THE AREA SO THAT THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP FROM THIS FORCING DOES NOT COME INTO EFFECT UNTIL SATURDAY...
WITH THE ETA SOLUTION AGAIN BEING THE ODD MODEL OUT. STILL...SOME
WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT COULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIP
OVER THE AREA...POSSIBLY INCLUDING LIGHT SNOW...SLEET...OR EVEN
FREEZING RAIN. EVEN IF THE GFS IS CORRECT FOR SATURDAY...ITS
SOLUTION FOR UPPER FORCING ALOFT WILL HAVE TO COMPETE WITH DRIER AIR
COMING IN. AS A RESULT...WILL JUST INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ON SATURDAY MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES...SOME OF WHICH
COULD RESULT IN LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT LEAST IN THE MORNING. COULD
SEE SOME LINGERING PRECIP OVER THE GULFMEX SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY. GFS IS SLOWING DOWN THE MOVEMENT OF
THE SURFACE HIGH ON MONDAY AND IT APPEARS SUSTAINED NORTHERLY FLOW
MAY CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN ON TUESDAY WITH MAYBE SOME
LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE GULFMEX ON TUESDAY WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED
INLAND SECTIONS. WILL START TO SEE A GRADUAL WARM UP SUNDAY AS THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MODIFIED. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
FOR HIGHS AHEAD OF PERHAPS ANOTHER FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE MAY
RETURN ENOUGH BY WEDNESDAY TO WARRANT PRECIP IN THE FORECAST. THIS
FRONT...HOWEVER DOES NOT LOOK AS COLD (AT LEAST AT THIS TIME).
GENERALLY STAYED BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR THIS COLD WEATHER EPISODE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 59 70 36 45 31 / 10 20 00 10 30
VICTORIA 52 61 30 43 26 / 20 40 00 05 20
LAREDO 54 67 35 44 29 / 00 05 00 05 10
ALICE 53 67 32 44 28 / 00 10 00 10 30
ROCKPORT 62 63 38 47 32 / 20 30 00 05 20
COTULLA 49 62 29 42 24 / 00 05 00 05 10
Don't get me wrong I hope you'all get your wish but they cry wolf far too much for my taste 