For the Eastern US Winter Weather Lovers....

[Wnghs2007]

HM's New Discussion....

Probably have read a lot of different things from different people. Well you can ride that crazy train (sorry ozzy, you sell out aaah hes old) all you want to and get a headache or you can stay w/ a man thats consistent. And not bad consistent like the GFS! lol

The ensembles already show the elements lined up to alter the pattern into one that we havent seen yet and will set the winter mode baby. Do you folks see it?

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 22112.html

The one thing thats going to run winter for the eastern 1/2 of the country the next week will actually be the VERY same thing (well NOT quite the same thing in that form) that changes it again. Look at whats happening across the globe.

BIG TIME PV amplification (b/c of ridge anomaly to the northwest) will occur into eastern Asia. This is FURTHER WEST than it has been, if correct will be the most west this year. I guess when your in retrogression, this is what happens. This will be the first time all damn fall/winter that this has happened. The implications are significant -->

1) THIS will be a nice pattern at h5 to force the warm ssta NE into the NE PAC and also force a building ridge over same waters, into Alaska and ultimately western N america, but will take time.

2) THIS will set the stage for pushing the BIG E PAC/west coast trough inland and become quite the wx maker, several wx makers. Once the key northern branch s/w drops in (whenever this happens, may come earlier than my outlook possibly)-- it will most likely phase w/ the old pacific trough and form a mega midwest storm. Prolific winter storm.

3) ONCE PAC trough/RNA pattern is relieved, likely w/ PV development, further south of the mean PV in bafflin, of substantial proportions. Ultimately the global patterns will change and pacific signal will be in place to support and continue to sustain this pattern. Eastern asian trough, ridge in alaska building east finally into West coast, split flow down the road and ultimately a negative NAO.

THE NAO is another story ... but w/ all the global changes, im sure that some sorta mid latitude cyclone (the midwest blizz? ) will be responsible for breaking that down too. Azores ridge anomalies /ssta will be relieved in JAN, watch the trends there. SSTA are not as warm and are being broken up as FIERCE /intact JET comes tearing across Atlantic.

all is quiet, all is calm, all is boring, all have given up ... then as quickly as you gave up as quickly as it bites you in the a**. THis will be "THE pattern change" ...