South LA snow chances looking better?

PTrackerLA · #1 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Tue Dec 21, 2004 11:28 pm

The 00z GFS runs shows the freezing line just offshore south of Lafayette but then bisecting the New Orleans metro area. Precip doesn't look like it will get north of Alexandria but it's looking pretty good for my area right now 8-)

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Midnight Christmas day

CajunMama · #2 Postby **CajunMama** » Tue Dec 21, 2004 11:29 pm

PT..Rob Perillo forecasted 40% chance of precip on Friday. Guess we'll wait and see

PTrackerLA · #3 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Tue Dec 21, 2004 11:40 pm

Saw that too CM, he seems VERY confident we'll at least see flakes...not calling for accumulation yet because that would really risky. Anyway I tried to post all of the latest GFS runs fron 60-84 hours out but when I posted it was all messed up. Someone else can try but if the 0z run were to be true we'd be seeing a 12+ hour event of all FROZEN precip! QPF could be as high as .50" too.

air360 · #4 Postby **air360** » Tue Dec 21, 2004 11:42 pm

what source(website) are you using for viewing GFS ?

AL Chili Pepper · #5 Postby **AL Chili Pepper** » Tue Dec 21, 2004 11:44 pm

air360 wrote:what source(website) are you using for viewing GFS ?

Try this one:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

Jagno · #6 Postby **Jagno** » Tue Dec 21, 2004 11:48 pm

I'm in Lake Charles and still praying for some of that white stuff.

Lindaloo · #7 Postby **Lindaloo** » Tue Dec 21, 2004 11:53 pm

CajunMama wrote:PT..Rob Perillo forecasted 40% chance of precip on Friday. Guess we'll wait and see

It increased? woo hoo. Freeze me some of it.

#8 Postby **wxguy25** » Tue Dec 21, 2004 11:55 pm

Actually the ETA is colder than the GFS through 84hrs. SE LA, S MS, NW FL into GA would be under the gun if taken at face value.

air360 · #9 Postby **air360** » Tue Dec 21, 2004 11:56 pm

wxguy...you have any maps for us on this event:) what are your thoughts?

#10 Postby **wxguy25** » Tue Dec 21, 2004 11:56 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_078l.gif

air360 · #11 Postby **air360** » Wed Dec 22, 2004 12:00 am

well i was referring to your maps;) but...im glad you didnt take that how i ment it becuase i just read the other post in another topic just now and you were saying you may not get any maps up tonight...was afraid you might have taken my comment as my bugging you about maps...lol...i simply just like your maps..thats all...

air360 · #12 Postby **air360** » Wed Dec 22, 2004 12:01 am

and by the way...nothing on NCEP is working for me otnight...not even the main site...is it working for everyone else?

#13 Postby **wxguy25** » Wed Dec 22, 2004 12:21 am

air360 wrote:well i was referring to your maps;) but...im glad you didnt take that how i ment it becuase i just read the other post in another topic just now and you were saying you may not get any maps up tonight...was afraid you might have taken my comment as my bugging you about maps...lol...i simply just like your maps..thats all...

Thanks I appreciate it, but to be quite frank, those maps are a pain in the a$$ to make. They really are.

air360 · #14 Postby **air360** » Wed Dec 22, 2004 12:23 am

yea some of them are pretty detailed..and you dont want to mess up and highlite something that shouldn't be...you know...cuz that may be someones backyard your saying will get 12in of snow;)...but yea...thanks a bunch...they are great!

#15 Postby **Steve** » Wed Dec 22, 2004 12:45 am

From around the web before I crash for the night. My early prediction is the 06 and 12z US models will change again to something no one wanted or saw coming before reversing themselves again tomorrow night.

From Mr. Spann @ 33/40abc's blog site:

How about the new 00Z ETA suggesting a CHANCE of snow on the ground Christmas morning for Gulf Shores, Pensacola, Destin and Panama City!...I like the look of this run...(said he'd put it in the 7am video for you emerald coasters)

From NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge:

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 33. North wind around 15 mph.

Friday: A slight chance of rain and sleet. Cloudy and breezy, with a high around 39. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Friday Night: A slight chance of rain and sleet before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low near 28. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

From theneworleanschannel.com/channel 6:

Steve

Jagno · #16 Postby **Jagno** » Wed Dec 22, 2004 12:53 am

Okay people, I'm seeing posts from my west in Houston and my east in New Orleans all talking about snow chances but no one is mentioning a thing about S.W. Louisiana (Lake Charles) getting in on this. Anybody? Our local met is very young and not from around here so he's not saying much to us either way. :oops:

#17 Postby **Steve** » Wed Dec 22, 2004 1:03 am

If the base of the trof digs into S Texas like some of the latest hints have indicated, Calcasieu/Cameron should be in on some of the action...

The Lake Charles NWS is pretty non-committal (appears to be an input problem for Fri/Sat/Sun):

Thursday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 30. North wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Friday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy. Northwest wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Friday Night: Calm wind.
---------------------------------------------------
Accuweather has you at:

Friday Night 12/24
Mostly cloudy and very cold
Low 21° F (slightly overdone?)

Saturday 12/25
A bit of ice in the morning
High 44° F
----------------------------------------------------
KATC Lafayette has a 40% shot at mix for Lafayette on Friday.

mobilebay · #18 Postby **mobilebay** » Wed Dec 22, 2004 1:32 am

I have a good feeling that alot of us along the Gulf Coast will see some Snow out of this. I just have a gut feeling the models are under forecasting this event. 8-)

PTrackerLA · #19 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Wed Dec 22, 2004 1:47 am

mobilebay wrote:I have a good feeling that alot of us along the Gulf Coast will see some Snow out of this. I just have a gut feeling the models are under forecasting this event.

It's amazing, the timing of this couldn't get any better if it pans out for us. It's time for us to break some records. :lol:

#20 Postby **wxguy25** » Wed Dec 22, 2004 1:48 am

I will have a map tomorrow morning on this event (8-9AM so check in then), outlining the basic idea of what I expect to happen.

furthermore, now that the event is within the range of the ETA and SREF I can do this w/ alot more confidence and detail.

MANY of you will be surprised with my first call.

South LA snow chances looking better?

South LA snow chances looking better?

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