Gulf Coast Snowstorm for Christmas

[KatDaddy]

The setup is there but will the moisture be offshore? Snow and sleet in the forecast for New Orleans and Tallahassee. The GFS show tremendous moisture across the NW and N GOM.

Possible sleet across Middle and Upper TX Coast Thursday.

Once of these times we will get lucky. If this system develops even 50 miles N of the GFS the TX coastal areas and points eastward may winter weather but not holding my breath. Too many disappointments over the last 20 years except for 1989

[LAwxrgal]

That's the big question KD, where the moisture develops and how cold will the temps be.

Please no ice or freezing rain...WE WANT SNOW

[KatDaddy]

Brownsville, TX AFD.......Snow Flurries in Deep S TX possible!


DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR
THE WEEKEND SINCE 06Z GFS SLOWED VORT MAX UNTIL LATE SATURDAY WITH
FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATING COLD RAIN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE
PELLETS CHANGING OVER TO SNOW FLURRIES BETWEEN FRI AND LATE SAT.

[WXBUFFJIM]

That's the big question KD, where the moisture develops and how cold will the temps be.

Please no ice or freezing rain...WE WANT SNOW

Hopefully it's all snow for you!!!!! I'm keeping my fingers crossed for you there

[KatDaddy]

Here is the latest from today's HPC Discussion:

REGIONAL HIGHLIGHTS...

GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST...
WAVY POLAR BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN COLD RAINS SPREADING ACROSS
THE AREA STARTING DAY 5. A LITTLE FREEZING OR FROZEN PCPN COULD
FALL OVER INTERIOR E TX AT THE ONSET OF THE EVENT BEFORE THE COLD
AIR ERODES.

[vbhoutex]

For us to get much of anything the trough and /or ULL coming in from the West is going to have to be a good deal further North than it is currently progged to be. We always hold out hope, but we never hold our breath!!!!

[PTrackerLA]

Think of all the busts over the past 10 or so years. I remember having winter storm warnings expecting to see 2"-4" and it turns out we only saw a few flakes. Maybe a few flakes will turn into 2"-4"!

[Stormcenter]

Think of all the busts over the past 10 or so years. I remember having winter storm warnings expecting to see 2"-4" and it turns out we only saw a few flakes. Maybe a few flakes will turn into 2"-4"!

That's exactly what I was thinking. As I stated in another post history has proven that all of the major southern snow events were not predicted by the NWS. I think the chances are better now just because the thinking is that we won't have a snow event based on the NWS and their models.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I don't think anyone predicted the 13 inch snow storm in San Antonio in Jan 1985 as well as the Ice storm we had at the same time in the Rio Grande Valley.

[KatDaddy]

Well here we go with the TX AFDs.......excerpts below:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. WITH THE COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE...READINGS AT OR BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS CWFA...WE MAY GET A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS...COASTAL ZONES AND ADJACENT ZONES...WITH THE
HIGHER POPS SOUTHWARD. FOR NOW...WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION BUT
THIS MAY CHANGE WITH LATER MODEL RUNS. GFS PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE
DEEP MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN ZONES WITH TEMPERATURE VERTICAL PROFILE

CORPUS CHRISTI AFD

.LONG-TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...VERY INTERESTING SCENARIO
COMING UP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE
GFS IS MORE IN LINE WITH WHAT HAPPENS RATHER THAN THE ETA MODEL.
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BLAST INTO SOUTH TEXAS AS A POTENTIAL FOR
AN ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN DEVELOPS...WITH UPPER LOW REMAINING OUT
TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...GFS DEVELOPS ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN WITH
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT STARTING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BELOW 32F ON FRIDAY EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
ETA SEEMS TO BE THE ODD MODEL OUT AND WILL BUMP UP POPS FOR FRIDAY
TO CHANCE EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHWEST. WILL INCLUDE AT LEAST A
WINTERY MIX IN THE GRIDS...WITH SNOW OVER THE NORTH AND WEST AND
POSSIBLE SLEET EARLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO
CONVERGE WITH SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME TOMORROW AND PRECIP CHANCES
SEEM MORE LIKELY...MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AT
LEAST PART OF THE AREA.

[Yankeegirl]

Dr. Frank said we have a good chance of getting some wintery precip on Friday morning and Friday night... I know he is good with the hurricanes, but how is he with snow?? lol..

[KatDaddy]

Now its Houston official..............Dr Neil Frank puts it into the forecast.

I will hold off until its actually snowing. As PT stated been there, done that, and was disappointed.

Its tough to get snowfall along the Upper TX Coast and SW LA and thats just the facts but darn would it be nice!

[PTPatrick]

Just another example of bad they are at predicting winter storm events on the gulf coast...In December 1996 close to 5 inches of snow fell on Mobile, AL and up into that very morning we were forecasted for light sleet and/or rain...and the closest that real snow was forecasted was around Hattiesburg, which recieved none.

[CajunMama]

PTPatrick, alot of weather is hard to predict. There are so many uncertainties that can occur. It's been fun watching the models..yes snow and then no snow. No one can tell exactly what's going to happen. That's why they are predicting the weather. I know I sure couldn't do it but I'm thankful that someone has more knowledge than I do and can at times forewarn me. I kind of relate it to football reffing....I sure can call a better game sitting on my sofa!

[AL Chili Pepper]

I'm no pro, but from what I see there's a fine line here. The GFS shows plenty of moisture just off the coast on Friday... JUST off the coast. A little to the left and we get dumped on. A little to the right and we get nothing. This is going to be fun to watch, snow or shine.

[air360]

hopefully in the end it will be snow for you down there!!! Im in Eastern NC and we got a little bit sunday night...it was wonderful..rare to up this way...so...i wont be to upset if we dont see any this weekend...but i sure hope yall do!

[vbhoutex]

Amazingly every Houston OCM I have listened to this evening is on board with wintry precip of some type for us on Friday. No one is predicting any accumulation or a definite type, but all are prediciting something.

All the elements will be present for wintry precip. The questions still to be answered are What type, how much and where. As currently progged it will be basically a coastal event in SE TX, meaning KD will get more than I do if I get anything. Of course, it goes without saying if the low tracks further North than expected then it becomes more than a coastal event and could get very interesting.

[Johnny]

Every since last week models have been keeping this low offshore and I have yet to hear or see anybody mention it coming onshore. The models I have seen since last week have yet to bring it more to the North. Maybe I'm wrong?

[SunnyThoughts]

NWS has upped our chances to 50% chance of snow on Friday night...from 30% chance predicted yesterday. Big topic of coversation today everywhere you go in Pensacola, Fla.

[vbhoutex]

Every since last week models have been keeping this low offshore and I have yet to hear or see anybody mention it coming onshore. The models I have seen since last week have yet to bring it more to the North. Maybe I'm wrong?

No you are seeing it right, at least as of last night, but they do show a precip shield coming up onto the coast Friday from the low. It will definitely be iffy as to what if anything we get.

My post was surprise at the ocm's being on board with it and just my thoughts on the possibilities.