Conservative Lake Charles NWS Finally on Board with the SNOW

[southerngale]

Last night, NWS Lake Charles had a high of about 50° for Friday and no mention of snow. They mentioned it once or twice several days ago but not lately that I've seen until now. I think they're really afraid of jinxing it! lol


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
123 PM CST WED DEC 22 2004

.DISCUSSION...ARCTIC AIRMASS SPILLING IN BEHIND
COLD FRONT WHICH WAS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM
BEAUMONT TEXAS TO FORT POLK. TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
ACROSS THE FRONT WAS 30 DEGREES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL JUST
ABOUT GIVE 100 PERCENT COVERED FOR TODAY AS THE FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD
TO LAFAYETTE BY 5 PM AND THROUGH THE NORTHWEST GULF OVERNIGHT. SEVERE
WEATHER HAS BEEN LIMITED IN NATURE WITH JUST A FEW
REPORTS OF PEA SIZE HAIL. THE BIG STORY IS THE VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL BUILD IN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
I DO NOT WANT TO JINX THE POSSIBILITY OF A WHITE CHRISTMAS
BUT CONDITIONS JUST LOOK TO REASONABLE NOT TO MENTION SNOW
BEGINNING FRIDAY AND ENDING ON SATURDAY AS SEVERAL KEY INGREDIENTS
COME TOGETHER. FIRST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY
WITH SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVERRIDING THE COOLER AIR
AT THE SURFACE. THEN...AS PRECIPITATION FALLS INTO THE DRIER AIR
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
A VERY STRONG JET IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE INFLOW
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE INTO THE REGION AND WILL BE THE CATALYST
FOR SNOWFALL THAT IS GENERALLY UNHEARD OF IN THESE PARTS...NORMALLY
FEBRUARY IS THE KEY MONTH FOR SNOWFALL OF MEASURABLE DEPTH.
SNOWFALL IS A RARE THING SO RIGHT NOW WILL JUST MENTION WORDING
OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST AND LET THE NEXT SHIFT DETERMINE AMOUNTS IF
ANY.


Let it snow! Let it snow! Let it snow!


http://www.srh.weather.gov/lch/cgi-bin/ ... &version=0

[LSU2001]

[PTrackerLA]

LOL I was just about to post the same thing! I nearly choked on a piece of ice when I read their discussion. They're making it seem like this will be MEASURABLE snowfall too.

[Opal storm]

All of our local mets here have a wintery mix in the forecast for Friday & Saturday. Can't wait to see what happens!

[PTrackerLA]

Hmm, now I might wait to get that last gift on Christmas eve, my Christmas spirit will be in high gear w/ the snow falling .

[Brent]

I want to throw up... It's not supposed to snow on the coast and not snow 300 miles to the north. THIS SUCKS!!!!

[SunnyThoughts]

Im with you Opal...can't wait to see what comes of the snow/sleet/muck...whatever we receive. I see too where the local mets are calling for snow/rain mix...but the NWS on my weather bug says all snow on Friday night

[BreinLa]

From NWS Lake Charles for Lafayette Yipeee 50% chance of SNOW


Hazardous weather condition(s):


Hazardous Weather Outlook
Short Term Forecast
Special Weather Statement


Rest of today. Showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 60s. West winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight. Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of rain then partly cloudy after midnight. Cooler. Lows in the upper 30s. Northwest winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to around 35 mph.

Thursday. Partly cloudy. Cooler. Highs in the mid 40s. North winds 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts.

Thursday night. Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s. North winds 10 to 20 mph. Wind chill readings 11 to 21.

Friday. Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Breezy. Highs in the lower 30s. North winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to around 40 mph. Wind chill readings 11 to 21.

Friday night and christmas day. Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers then partly cloudy in the afternoon. Highs around 40. Lows in the mid 20s. Wind chill readings 10 to 20.

Saturday night through Sunday night. Partly cloudy. Highs in the lower 50s. Lows near 30.

Monday through Tuesday. Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain showers. Highs in the mid 60s. Lows in the lower 40s.




Lafayette Regional Airport
Last Update on Dec 22, 1:53 pm CST


Mostly Cloudy

74°F
(23°C) Humidity: 67 %
Wind Speed: S 17 MPH
Barometer: 29.64" (1003.5 mb)
Dewpoint: 62°F (17°C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
More Local Wx: 2 Day History:











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[PTrackerLA]

Ok our forecast is out straight from NWS Lake Charles:

Thursday night. Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s. North winds 10 to 20 mph. Wind chill readings 11 to 21.

Friday. Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Breezy. Highs in the lower 30s. North winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to around 40 mph. Wind chill readings 11 to 21.

Friday night and christmas day. Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers then partly cloudy in the afternoon. Highs around 40. Lows in the mid 20s. Wind chill readings 10 to 20.

SNOW FROM CHRISTMAS EVE-CHRISTMAS DAY!!!!!!!!!

[PTrackerLA]

Well Brein, we sure think alike .

[southerngale]

WOO-HOO!! My NWS forecast:

Friday. Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow showers. Highs around 30. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Wind chill readings 10 to 20.





Friday night. Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow showers. Lows around 19. Wind chill readings 8 to 18.





Christmas day. Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow showers then partly cloudy in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 30s. Wind chill readings 9 to 19 in the morning.




Just snow down here is VERY rare...snow on Christmas is just unheard of!!! Oh please Santa, please!!

[Brent]

New Orleans doesn't seem impressed...

THE FINAL CHALLENGE INVOLVES THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GFS REMAINS SOMEWHAT PERSISTENT WITH
DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF AND THEN TRACKING THE
SYSTEM DUE EASTWARD WITH MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY AROUND THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE LOWER HALF OF THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION. THIS MODEL THOUGH MAY BE TRENDING MORE AS AN OUTLIER
COMPARED TO THE ETA...THE UKMET AND THE ECMWF WHICH HAS DRIER AIR
FUNNELING DEEPER INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WITH LESS DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE WAVE. WILL LIKELY GO WITH A BLEND OF THE ETA AND THE GFS
WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST RIGHT NOW...EXCEPT MAYBE TO
BUMP UP PRECIP CHANCES TO THE LOW SCT CAT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE GFS THICKNESS VALUES ARE NOT
OVERLY CONDUCIVE TO ALL WINTER PRECIP...MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST
THE POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN...SLEET AND/OR SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES INCLUDING METRO NEW ORLEANS AND THE MISSISSIPPI GULF
COAST. MAY ALSO SEE A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES
ALTHOUGH PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CAT AT BEST.
&&

[CYCLONE MIKE]

So why such a change in tune from the Houston/Beaumont and Lake Charles/Lafayette guys to the Baton Rouge/New Orleans guys. It is almost like they don't think much of this not happeneing. Do they, BTR/MSY guys, know more or less than our neighbors? Can anyone help out with this?

[CajunMama]

Frack...I'm sorry I didn't see your thread about the 50% chance of snow. Please forgive me

[southerngale]

No problem. Just give me 20% of your snow and I'll forget about it.

[PTrackerLA]

Another thing we might be overlooking is the fact that some places will be below freezing for 36+ hours. I don't think our 7 year old grapefruit tree has experienced freezing temps for that long yet. If it's too big to cover, would letting water spray on it to form ice protect the tree better?

[Kennethb]

Looks like Lake Charles and Houston collaborated and are hinging their POP on the strong jet streak and not as much on the models. New Orleans takes less note of the jet but more on the models.

My motto to my friends and coworkers is if they predict it, it wont happen. At least having a forecast of snow for Christmas is a first. For out sake may Lake Charles and Houston be correct.

[CajunMama]

Kenneth...Lake Charles is very very conservative in their forecasts. In fact, they haven't had ANY forecasts for the past day to day and a half for Christmas Eve and Christmas. So for them to put up this up, they must believe it will happen.

[Jagno]

The preferred method would be to cover with a blanket/tarp/plastic and burn a light bulb inside the "tent", or place large containers of water all around the tree. To prevent frost from forming, keep the air moving over the blossoms with a fan, or cover with a blanket. You could also make a frame of PVC pipe or 2x4 lumber around your grapefruit tree and cover the frame.

[PTrackerLA]

Well our local met Rob Perillo just downplayed the situation quite a bit. Sounded like all we'll see is a few flurries maybe a snow shower on Friday. Yesterday he was much more gung ho about the event when the NWS barely mentioned it. He could just be playing it safe...you don't wanna forecast a true white Christmas around here only to get a flurry or two.