Early ideas on southern snow (MAP!)

#1 Postby **wxguy25** » Wed Dec 22, 2004 4:55 pm

http://img134.exs.cx/img134/9223/southernsnow8kc.jpg

southerngale · #2 Postby **southerngale** » Wed Dec 22, 2004 4:59 pm

Thank you for doing the map & I like it!

CajunMama · #3 Postby **CajunMama** » Wed Dec 22, 2004 4:59 pm

I LIKE that map! Yes sirree I do!!!!

Lindaloo · #4 Postby **Lindaloo** » Wed Dec 22, 2004 5:02 pm

I LOVE that map!! woo hoo!!

air360 · #5 Postby **air360** » Wed Dec 22, 2004 5:03 pm

yall may like the map..but shoot...i love the map....im in the far southwestern corner of area D...woohoo!

#6 Postby **wxguy25** » Wed Dec 22, 2004 5:04 pm

The map was made based on the 12z model cycle, but the 18z ETA is VERY CLOSE to a major snowstorm for some places in area B (coastal LA, MS, AL, NW FL panhandle). and a BIG snowstorm for the NC Outerbanks.

Johnny · #7 Postby **Johnny** » Wed Dec 22, 2004 5:05 pm

Heck, I'm up in Conroe...push 'area B' up just a tad. Thanks.

CYCLONE MIKE · #8 Postby **CYCLONE MIKE** » Wed Dec 22, 2004 5:09 pm

So wxguy 25, how confident are you that this storm will come true. I live just south of Baton Rouge, LA. Do you expect to see any accumulations at all. What are the chances of this low coming a little further north than current thinking? Any help would be appreciated, Thanks.

#9 Postby **bfez1** » Wed Dec 22, 2004 5:13 pm

Can you all see me jumping up and down right now??? :lol:

Website · #10 Postby **Brent** » Wed Dec 22, 2004 5:13 pm

Website · #11 Postby **Brent** » Wed Dec 22, 2004 5:14 pm

bfez1 wrote:Can you all see me jumping up and down right now???

I can hear you. :wink:

#12 Postby **vbhoutex** » Wed Dec 22, 2004 5:15 pm

It is amazing how suppressed that storm track is. Shows how strong the cold is!!! If this was january or February with snowpack on the ground to the North I SHUDDER to think what could be!!

Wait, I am shuddering already with excitement and due to the fact it is down to 41º already and it is 4:10 pm here.

#13 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Wed Dec 22, 2004 5:15 pm

Aw Brent don't be such a spoilsport.... :lol:

We'll throw ya a few snoballs :grrr:

Website · #14 Postby **Brent** » Wed Dec 22, 2004 5:18 pm

The ETA would leave all of ya'll crying in your stockings... OH SO CLOSE!

and then...

That would make you want to commit suicide. Had a setup like that here in 2002 where it snowed 8 inches 50 miles south of where I was living but we barely got anything.

#15 Postby **wxguy25** » Wed Dec 22, 2004 5:22 pm

vbhoutex wrote:It is amazing how suppressed that storm track is. Shows how strong the cold is!!! If this was january or February with snowpack on the ground to the North I SHUDDER to think what could be!!

Wait, I am shuddering already with excitement and due to the fact it is down to 41º already and it is 4:10 pm here.

there will be to the North, and that could play a BIG role.

PTrackerLA · #16 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Wed Dec 22, 2004 5:23 pm

wxguy, when you say possibility of a major snowstorm for us, what do you mean? I would consider anything over 2" major around here!

Website · #17 Postby **Brent** » Wed Dec 22, 2004 5:25 pm

GFS... ice storm.

Just maybe a flake or two in Extreme SE LA or Coastal Alabama or NW Florida.

CYCLONE MIKE · #18 Postby **CYCLONE MIKE** » Wed Dec 22, 2004 5:27 pm

WXguy25, In your opinion can this track change a little further north as we get closer in time and give south LA more than the current thinking. I know your busy but I don't know much about this kind of weahter down here. Thanks.

#19 Postby **vbhoutex** » Wed Dec 22, 2004 5:31 pm

wxguy25 wrote:
vbhoutex wrote:It is amazing how suppressed that storm track is. Shows how strong the cold is!!! If this was january or February with snowpack on the ground to the North I SHUDDER to think what could be!!

Wait, I am shuddering already with excitement and due to the fact it is down to 41º already and it is 4:10 pm here.

there will be to the North, and that could play a BIG role.

That snow in N TX today is why we are already about 5º below where we were expected to be at this time. What I was referring to was if we had a good snowpack all the way up to the Canadien border, then there wouldn't be much modification of the cold as it comes in. I do not have nearly enough knowledge to make any statemt like you can Wxguy, but my guess would be our temps would probably be another 5º lower than they are now and are progged to be over the period of coldest weather. Please correct me if I am wrong. I still have a ton to learen.

#20 Postby **wxguy25** » Wed Dec 22, 2004 5:33 pm

CYCLONE MIKE wrote:WXguy25, In your opinion can this track change a little further north as we get closer in time and give south LA more than the current thinking. I know your busy but I don't know much about this kind of weahter down here. Thanks.

No problem. Yes the track can shift further north, and as I said the 18z ETA is very close to a major snowstorm for SE LA. If it does...Dare I say...several inches could fall since moisture would be abundant.

I'm just playing it safe for right now. I busted badly on the MAR 2001 hype snowstorm for the major cities when i was still up there and i want to avoid the same thing here, since this is a pretty high risk/low confidence forecast from LA into northern Florida. BUT if later data suggests that this is going to be a major event, then you better believe I'll hold nothing back.

Early ideas on southern snow (MAP!)

Early ideas on southern snow (MAP!)

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