ETA 0z run... what happened to the Gulf snow?

[Brent]

Too warm and the moisture is not there.

[air360]

here we go with the stupid models flip flopping again...gosh...watch it be back to loads of precip on the next model run..lol...that would only make sense....almost like a trend;) this way..then that..this way..then that way....its almost predictable now,....haha

[Brent]

here we go with the stupid models flip flopping again...gosh...watch it be back to loads of precip on the next model run..lol...that would only make sense....almost like a trend;) this way..then that..this way..then that way....its almost predictable now,....haha

The problem is... we're within 48 hours now and this is not the GFS.

[Huckster]

The previous run (18z) was not very favorable for snow either. Neither one (18z or 00z) showed much if any snow for the areas that are getting hyped up about the snow. The main difference with this latest run seems to be the lack of cold air.

[air360]

true...but it has fliped since the last model run...what makes this one so much more valid than that one? both are pretty close to action time....it could just as easily flip back on the next run in a few hours

[wx247]

The ETA has pretty much consistently been against the snowstorm since the beginning. The GFS has been the model of snow. I think a blend of these two is still the best option. Don't weigh your options too heavily on either one.

[jeff]

May be drier, but has slowed down the upper low ejection into TX and LA. You do not need a great deal of moisture to produce snow (PWS still forecast near .25-.5 in) with good dynamical lifting.

May have to hang back the event into Friday evening with some accumulations further inland than first thought this afternoon. Still not a lot of accumulation is expected, but some. This is mainly for TX and not for LA.

[PTPatrick]

I am not trying to say GFS will be right...although i wish it were...but didnt ETA downplay the current ohio valley storm right up until it was occuring?

[Wpwxguy]

Well, just saw the 0z gfs and it looks a little heavier on the moisture for coastal areas of Louisana and Miss, Al. It seems a little more than the last run which also increased it somewhat. I think tomorrow will be a nail biter for everyone hoping for snow. We should know for sure by this time tomorrow, or at least have a little certainty.

[MGC]

Still don't believe the GFS due to its cold bias. Still don't think it will snow here. Still hope I am wrong......MGC

[QCWx]

Why does it seem you are so happy it took away their snow? This attitude is extremley immature and will only cause people to have a negative image of you.

[wxguy25]

Too warm and the moisture is not there.

[img]http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/eta/00/images/eta_slp_048l.gif

Brent, a few critical points here regarding the use of the MSLP/1000-500mb thk and precip prog to determine p-type.

I have explained this before but for some reason people seem to panic when they see the 5400 gpm contour to the north of them w/o realizing that it may be unrepresentative of the ACTUAL precip type and then they wonder why their seeing SN or ZRA or IP on a forecast map “when the 540 line is north of me”

The 1000-500mb layer is very deep and while the thickness value of that layer at a given location may be favorable or unfavorable for snow by definition ( where the </= 5400 geopotential meters would suggest SN is predominant while mixed or RA is favored at values above that).

Since thicknesses of a layer are a function of the virtual temperature of that layer, and the 1000-500mb layer is VERY deep, its less sensitive to shallow or nearly negligible warm or cool layers at various layers. This is known as thickness biasing.

Partial thicknesses (e.g., 1000-850mb or 850-700mb thicknesses) can be more sensitive to these small warm or cool layers and consequently better predictors of P-type. BUT nevertheless are still not the best methods for assessing precip type. Soundings are the best method.

Since were talking about model progs here, I would suggest that if you are going top scrutinize p-type, do so using the T850/MSLP/precip prog.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_006l.gif

Getting back to the system though, the 0z ETA is actually not half bad for SE TX (and actually better than the majority of the previous runs for that region).

For the rest of the gulf coast, however, it’s not that great which Brent correctly identified.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_054l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_060l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_066l.gif

at 54hrs ( 06z SAT) the 0C isotherm at h85 is running from northern MEXICO through the extreme WRN gulf and into LA, the SLP area is developing in a weak inverted trough just offshore and precip is breaking out across SE TX. IF we assume that the 0C 850h isotherm is at least a rough predictor of where the RN/SN line is setting up – it’s snowing in Brownsville.

By 54hrs stronger lift (negative omega) at 700h is making its way onshore over SE TX into the cold air. IF soundings are isothermal, this stronger lift could initiate enough adiabatic cooling to turn p-type to all snow. If soundings are solidly below freezing or would end up below freezing after evaporational cooling takes place then it won’t matter. I see the -3C isotherm is stuck right along the SE TX coast so even w/o looking at BUFKIT soundings over the region im pretty sure this would be snow.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_054l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_054l.gif

The ETA actually manages to crank out a quarter to a half inch of liquid over extreme SE TX as all or mainly all snow.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_072l.gif

In summary the ETA is not half bad for SE TX, but in plain English sucks for the remainder of the Gulf coast east of the mouth of the Mississippi

[southerngale]

extreme SE TX? That's me!

Is what you're saying still low confidence? *crosses fingers* lol

And if it's right, I hope it spreads out to include all of my Gulf coast friends who want snow too! Come on Santa, bring us all a little snow!


Now I'm gonna read your post a few dozen more times so I can understand it all.

[CajunMama]

phew...i'm glad i'm west of the Mississippi River!

[SouthernWx]

Why does it seem you are so happy it took away their snow? This attitude is extremley immature and will only cause people to have a negative image of you.

Whoa friend...chill out.
Brent is a good friend of mine, and all he did was point out what the 00z ETA proggs.

I'll honestly be surprised if any measurable snow falls anywhere along the Gulf coast. I'm not happy about it, but thats just the way it is...snow is very rare any time along the Gulf coast. The odds of one of those rare instances occurring on Christmas Day has to be a million to one shot; IMO a once in 1000+ yr event.

Look at it this way: I'm in Atlanta, and there's NEVER been a measurable white Christmas here...not in 130 yrs, and it's much more likely to occur in a city that averages 2" snow a winter than in areas such as Mobile, New Orleans, or Galveston that average less than 2" a decade.

PW

[wxguy25]

extreme SE TX? That's me!

Is what you're saying still low confidence? *crosses fingers* lol

And if it's right, I hope it spreads out to include all of my Gulf coast friends who want snow too! Come on Santa, bring us all a little snow!


Now I'm gonna read your post a few dozen more times so I can understand it all.

Yep still low confidence. I will have a new map tomorrow.

The ETA though doesn't give your area any QPF, though has a tendency to develop super tight precip gradients in the face of arctic (or in this case modified arctic air).

[wxguy25]

phew...i'm glad i'm west of the Mississippi River!

The ETA gives you nothing also, but is questionable for the same reasons as I posted in my response to SG.

[Wnghs2007]

As Posted in another thread.

I think Im going to cry.


Wake me up when this nightmare is over....Snow to the south and I get screwed and then a 3 week pattern in the 60's and 70's.

I can see it now come next year total for Snow Totals

NO. 2"

Dacula Georgia : 0---Icestorms 0

This winter is giving me the finger royally.

[Brent]

Why does it seem you are so happy it took away their snow? This attitude is extremley immature and will only cause people to have a negative image of you.

You would probably feel the same way if you were in my situation. No snow for THREE years now and that was one where the biggest snow was SOUTH of me. Only an inch fell then while areas to my south(not the way it's supposed to be here) got buried. It's not fair.

[Brent]

As Posted in another thread.

I think Im going to cry.


Wake me up when this nightmare is over....Snow to the south and I get screwed and then a 3 week pattern in the 60's and 70's.

I can see it now come next year total for Snow Totals

NO. 2"

Dacula Georgia : 0---Icestorms 0

This winter is giving me the finger royally.

When is the last time you had any accumulation of snow?