Hmmm GOM satellite looks interesting

[Stormcenter]

The moisture off the Texas coast building northward looks
very interesting. I wouldn't write off a POSSIBLE snow
event for somewhere along the northern GOM just yet
despite what the models are saying.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[TexasSam]

If you look at the first few frames of that loop you can see the cold air working south (the lighter shades) also in that look with it being a IR pic. you can see the warm lake waters around Texas. the darker spots that don't seem to move.

[HouTXmetro]

So is the moisture building back in or what?

[Wpwxguy]

there's definitely a northward migration of the moisture, heres to hoping the low forms farther north than projected. by looking at the satelite that just might happen. Would be great news for us in the deep south.

[Wpwxguy]

IN ADDITION...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO RETREAT
SLIGHTLY NORTH AS THE LOW MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST FRIDAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE WITH 1 INCH OFF THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 18Z FRIDAY AND 0.5 TO 0.8 INCH TO THE LAKE

perhaps the boundary will move far enough north to bring in precip? Hope so.

that was from NWS Slidell

[Jagno]

Okay Mets, for us non-meteorologists, what is going on? I'm in Lake Charles, Louisiana(extreme SW Louisiana) and we've bounced from no snow chances for Friday & Saturday to 50% yesterday morning then 30% at midnight and now 40% this morning. I'm also seeing threads that indicate the chances are dwindling and others that seem to be reconsidering this event along the Gulf Coast. Most of the threads discuss Texas and SE Louisiana when talking about this event. Can someone please tell me what to expect for my area today through Christmas Day? Your help is greatly appreciated.

Our local NWS is more concerned with posting the following:
THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THIS COLD WEATHER IS
FIRES DUE TO HEAT SOURCES SUCH AS FIRE PLACES AND SPACE HEATERS
BEING TOO CLOSE TO THE CHRISTMAS PRESENTS. EACH WINTER SEASON...WE
SEE SEVERAL FATALITIES DUE TO PEOPLE LEAVING HEATERS TOO CLOSE TO
SOMETHING THAT CAN CATCH ON FIRE TOO EASILY.

They briefly mentioned a possible snow then went on to discussing fire hazards and finished it off with the next possible rain chance next Wed.
Doesn't tell me much about NOW.

[vbhoutex]

The moisture you are seeing migrate North is just the beginning. What we need to be looking at is what you see coming in from the W and WSW in that IR loop. The further North this low forms the more of a chance areas off the coast have of a winter precip event, which we all pretty much know. As it forms the low will really begin to pump the moisture N and it will become obvious with among other things RH's coming up. This is a very strong cold push and it is doing its' level best to suppress everything South(bad for winter precip event) but with the IR already showing some migration of moisture N it is encouraging, despite the models. Winter events are very difficult to predict in the South, so I would say the NWS offices are doing their best and probably are not too far off, based on what the models are showing. Based on climatology they are probably not too far off either. My only question is are they looking past the models enough at what the sats and obs are showing to our W? Bottom line from this rank amatuer is that there will be coastal(up to about 100 miles inland winter precip event in TX with the heavier amounts along the Coastal bend near Corpus and of course moving ENE up the coast with SW LA still in the mix for some winter precip. I am not about to predict p-type, but everyone in SE TX is saying snow. Obviousl there will be some mix at least at the start and end(at least there normally is in the deep South).

[HollynLA]

Local mets here are really backing off the snow chances as of last night. Hopefully, things may change today but it's alot colder this morning than originally anticipated. Wind chills tomorrow night will be in the single digits which is unheard of for us. Usually on an average winter, we will only get below freezing once or twice. Here it is in December and we've already went below freezing a dozen times. I think this winter will be anything but ordinary so I don't write off snow/sleet yet.

[Jagno]

Holly, what part of South Louisiana are you from? We certainly haven't seen a dozen below freezing temps here in Lake Charles. This is our 3rd time which, like you stated, is already abnormal for us.

[Wpwxguy]

Moisture is surging north/norheast rapidly. I think we could see a pretty good overrunning event in the deep south. Unless this cold air reenforces and pushes it out again. Still could go either way. My thought s are that we will see some frozen precip in Southeast La/Sw La. I had snow flurries this morning in northern southeast la.

[vbhoutex]

I must agree that the chances are good for an overrunning event. There is another surge of cold air coming in this evening and that could be a supressor, but with the moisture already streaming Northward I still say we have at least a 50% chance at seeing the white stuff or some variatin thereof.

[HollynLA]

Right now, I'm staying in Livingston Parish but also live in Terrebone parish, haven't been there in over a month though so not sure. I wonder which place has a better chance of snow so I'll know which house to stay at for Christmas! LOLOL

[Janie34]

The time for model prognostication is just about over and we will see what we shall see.

[Dean4Storms]

The NWS is giving us a 30-40% chance of rain mixing and possibly changing over to sleet and snow here in the western FL. Panhandle tomorrow and tomorrow nite. This is a tricky forecast because as of yet the low has not taken shape to give us an indication of the rain/snow line or how far north the moisture makes it. If the low was to track to far north then we would likely see more rain, too far south and maybe nothing. If there is a snow line it will be in a very narrow band with the evaporational cooling helping to lower temps and support some snow. I can't see anything more than a dusting at best for us and that will quickly melt as the ground temps are running mid 50's last check. Could be some problems on bridges and overpasses come late Fri. nite Sat. early morning and a lite dusting on cars, roofs and patches in the grass.

All this could change either way, more snow or none at all, all depending on the moistures advance northward and temps.


All in all, what a weird year, major hurricane three months ago and now SNOW?

[southerngale]

Right now, I'm staying in Livingston Parish but also live in Terrebone parish, haven't been there in over a month though so not sure. I wonder which place has a better chance of snow so I'll know which house to stay at for Christmas! LOLOL

I hear ya!

[Kennethb]

What we need to see is some NE winds showing up at reporting stations. So far most are due N.

[cajungal]

They say Central Lafourche Parish has the best chance for winter mix. I live in northern Terrebonne Parish, so don't know what that means for me. The weather channel is only giving rain showers and the low will only get down the 34 degrees. That is still above freezing. Accuweather gives an inch of snow for our area. But, I usally go by the weather channel. Accuweather does poor a lot of the time. I don't remember us going below freezing a dozen times here. Hardly at all. We had a very mild winter here so far. Just a few cold snaps and that was it. Just last week we were in T-shirts and shorts here.

[cardiacnp]

I am not convinced that will will not see any snow. I like the IR sat with moister that appears to be coming off the NW gulf.
Any thougths or comments??