Snow Chances (SE TX)

[jeff]

Extended period of freezing temps expected

We should fall below freezing tonight and not get back above until midday Saturday.

Cold arctic air firmly entrenched over the region with temps at or below freezing from I-10 northward. Secondary surge over OK with bitter cold temps in the single digits. The secondary surge will arrive this evening with north winds increasing and temps falling well below freezing.

Now to the much talked about snow chances:

Upstream dewpoints this morning are in the single digits as far south as Dallas with teens from College Station to Huntsville, 20's over the Houston area, and near 30 along the coast. Secondary arctic surge will only reduce these numbers more this afternoon and tonight creating a very dry layer from 850mb to the surface. Strong short wave advertised in the models is currently shown in the water vapor over the SW US with strong upper air lifting spreading east into W TX. Sub-tropical plume is spreading mid and high level moisture toward TX from the deep Pacific. Visible images are showing the eroding cloud deck slowing its southward progression with increasing mid and high clouds from the SW. I think we will have a tough time breaking out of the low deck today, which will result in temps only warming into the mid or upper 30's instead of mid 40's.

Tonight:

Forecast models show strong isentropic lifting in the 295K to 300K level from Corpus Christi to Conroe. Forecast PWS are in the .3 to .4 range, but surface dewpoints fall into the teens. The moisture will be based in the mid level from the sub-tropical jet. The profiles are frozen from the surface upward with indications of decent crystal formation near the 700mb level. The amount of dynamical lifting may be enough to overcome the lack of moisture, however the dry layer near the surface may evaporate anything that falls from the mid level deck. Will be closely watching the wet bulb temp for any indication of saturation near the surface.

Friday:

Upper level energy arrives from the west with a vort max moving over the area. Moisture remains limited, but the lifting near the cold core center may be enough for a few bands of precip. Highs will go nowhere under continued strong cold air advection and should top out in the 30-32 degree range.

Christmas Day:

Very hard freeze in the morning with lows in the upper teens and low 20's. Upper level trough pulls east with warming conditions. Highs should finally rise above freezing around midday.

Accumulations:

Given that the ground conditions remain warm and the expected precip will be light. Very light accumulation is expected as whatever falls should melt on contact with the ground. Exceptions will be rooftops, bridges, and open grassy areas where some minor accumulation is possible. Should the moisture be greater, or meso-scale snow bands develop, then accumulations could easily approach 1 inch. 0C 850mb temp and 32 degree wet bulb line cuts the coastal counties in half around 600am Friday morning. Will have to go with a rain/snow mix south of this line then change to all snow by mid morning. If it falls inland it will be all snow.

Forecast:

Today: partly to mostly cloudy this morning with increasing clouds late. Highs in the upper 30's. North winds 5-10mph

Tonight: cloudy and cold with a 30% chance of snow after midnight. Little accumulation is expected. Lows in the mid 20's. N wind increasing 15-25mph and gusty.

Christmas Eve: cloudy and cold with a 40% chance of snow. Some light accumulation is possible. Highs near freezing. N winds 10-20mph and gusty. Wind chills in the 5-15 degree range.

Friday night: cloudy early with flurries, becoming partly cloudy late. Very cold, with lows from the upper teens north to low 20's Houston area to upper 20's coast.

Christmas Day: decreasing clouds with highs near 50.

For other areas:

This forecast holds well for SW LA and even into SE LA, however more of a rain/snow mix can be expecte din SE LA.

For central TX the chances look to be Friday with the main upper low with some very light acc.

South TX aorund CC actually stand the best chances right now, but the wet bulb is just above freezing there so, yall folks may see more of a mixture.

Jeff L

[Yankeegirl]

Sheesh.... I cant wait till tomorrow! I just looked outside and my birdbath is frozen solid! I am going to get a pic of it soon.... The kids find it really cool... Keeping my fingers crossed for the snow!

[Johnny]

Good forecast Jeff. One quick question if you don't mind. Do you think I will see any snow up towards Conroe?

[southerngale]

Thanks for the update, Jeff! I'm keeping my snow-fingers crossed!!

[jeff]

Good forecast Jeff. One quick question if you don't mind. Do you think I will see any snow up towards Conroe?

Your on the 30-40% line. It will be close. Depending on the track of the upper low and the surface low will determine if area to the north see anything.

[Johnny]

I'm glad I just have a %. Are you going to be posting an update later on this afternoon?

[jeff]

I'm glad I just have a %. Are you going to be posting an update later on this afternoon?

probably. I am real busy today, but should get one out by this evening

[Rainband]

Good Luck on the snow guys and gals

[PTrackerLA]

I sure hope it snows. It's only 31.7 as of 11:30am...probably won't make it any higher than around 35 today. I'm also watching the clouds thicken and move in from the gulf on satellite. Keeping my fingers crossed to see some snow...

[vbhoutex]

Well we've managed 39º at 1:40pm here in Houston. Had a brief break in the overcast, but encouragingly we now have a mid-level cloud deck moving back in from the W and/or SW which indicates we have moisture moving back in. Still have my hopes at 40% for snow for us(like I posted a week ago). I wish I had more time to check everything out including just going outside and really taking a look at the clouds etc. besides model perusing. So far I can't disagree with anything I see in Jeff's forecast. Like all the rest here I am hoping for a more Northern track for the low and no supression by the incoming secondary cold surge.

[swimaster20]

Jeff, what do you expect for SWLA around the Lafayette area in terms of accumultaions, temps, and precip.

[jeff]

Jeff, what do you expect for SWLA around the Lafayette area in terms of accumultaionk, temps, and precip.

Very little. Based on newest guidance I will cut snow chances in half with my new update and may remove them all together. Very dry near the surface with dewpoints heading toward the teens. Moisture is too far south. Even with good lifting and moisture in the middle level, most of what falls will probably evaporate before reaching the ground.

Sorry, folks the chances are looking very slim at this time.

[Brent]

Jeff, what do you expect for SWLA around the Lafayette area in terms of accumultaionk, temps, and precip.

Very little. Based on newest guidance I will cut snow chances in half with my new update and may remove them all together. Very dry near the surface with dewpoints heading toward the teens. Moisture is too far south. Even with good lifting and moisture in the middle level, most of what falls will probably evaporate before reaching the ground.

Sorry, folks the chances are looking very slim at this time.

Is that for Southeast Texas as well?

*gets the tissues ready*

[PTrackerLA]

I agree with Jeff, this is looking like a non-event now. Too bad alot of us got our hopes up .

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
113 PM CST THU DEC 23 2004

GMZ450-455-470-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-
240400-
ACADIA-ALLEN-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-CALCASIEU-CAMERON-
CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-EVANGELINE-HARDIN-IBERIA-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-LAFAYETTE-
LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO CAMERON, LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-LOWER ST MARTIN-
NEWTON-ORANGE-RAPIDES-ST LANDRY-ST MARY-TYLER-UPPER ST MARTIN-
VERMILION-VERNON-
113 PM CST THU DEC 23 2004

...A POLAR EXPRESS CHRISTMAS...

THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SQUALL LINE THAT PASSED THROUGH THE
AREA YESTERDAY RUDELY ANNOUNCED THE REAL START OF OUR WINTER. FROM
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL YESTERDAY, LAST NIGHT'S AND TODAY'S
TEMPERATURE IS OVER 30 DEGREES COLDER....AND THE COLD HAS ONLY
JUST BEGUN.

A SECOND BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR IS PRESENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTH TEXAS
HEADING OUR WAY.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID 20'S TONIGHT
CONTINUING DOWN INTO THE LOW 20'S CHRISTMAS EVE FRIDAY NIGHT.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR FREEZING ALL DAY CHRISTMAS EVE
INCREASING INTO THE MID 40'S CHRISTMAS DAY.

AND TO ADD TO THESE COLD TEMPERATURES...THE STRONG NORTH WIND WILL
INCREASE THE CHILLING EFFECT.

THE STRONG COLD NORTH WIND WE ARE EXPERIENCING HAS PUSHED FAR
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS HAS CUT OFF OUR SOURCE
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE SOURCE OF POSSIBLE CHRISTMAS SNOW
ACROSS OUR AREA.

NOT TO RULE OUT THE CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...SNOW HAS
BEEN REMOVED FROM OUR CHRISTMAS EVE FORECAST. THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS ON CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE COLD RAIN.

SINCE THIS COLD EVENT WILL BE EXTREME AND EXTEND OVER A THIRTY SIX
HOUR PERIOD...SPECIAL PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE MADE TO PROTECT
OUTDOOR PLANTS AND ANIMALS.

AND INDOORS...SPECIAL CARE SHOULD BE TAKEN WITH SPACE HEATERS BY
KEEPING THEM AWAY FROM COMBUSTIBLE CHRISTMAS TREES...DRAPES AND
PRESENTS.

THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION INCLUDING SATELLITE...RADAR AND
FORECASTS CAN BE FOUND ON OUR WEB PAGE AT http://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV.

[Brent]

I agree with Jeff, this is looking like a non-event now. Too bad alot of us got our hopes up .

I'm so sorry. I know earlier I got really upset over it because I haven't seen any, but deep down I wanted ya'll to have some. I've learned after numerous letdowns here in the past few years to not get my hopes up... it's VERY hard sometimes though.

[Brent]

New Orleans NWS:

LATEST INDICATIONS WOULD SUGGEST ANY WINTER TYPE PRECIPITATION WOULD
MOST LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF SLEET WITH PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES
MAINLY IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY. NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AND THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD WOULD BE
GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE I-12 CORRIDOR AND THE METRO NEW ORLEANS AREA.
THE OVERALL PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE IS 30 PERCENT FRIDAY.

[Brent]

Mobile NWS:

ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MEANWHILE
MOVE ACROSS THE GULF AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE
AREA. WITH THE COLD AIR IN PLACE...THE AREA CAN EXPECT A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET OR SNOW DURING FRIDAY MORNING...AND A
CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. AS THE TEMPERATURES
COOL FURTHER LATE IN THE DAY...A CHANCE FOR A MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND
SNOW WILL RETURN BY SUNSET...WITH A CHANCE OF A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA THAT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF SLEET OR
SNOW IS EXPECTED.