Snow for Eastern NC Christmas Day????

wolfray · #1 Postby **wolfray** » Wed Dec 22, 2004 9:25 pm

Bastardi keeps hope for coastal snow or ice for eastern NC on Christmas Day. Have any of you seen anything on this. I see Fla panhandle is predicted for some snow. Usuallly when they get it, we get a bunch. Snow on Christmas would be great.....

air360 · #2 Postby **air360** » Wed Dec 22, 2004 9:38 pm

well....I dont have access to JB's materials so i cant say much about what he is saying (but thanks for the little insight into his thinkings) but as far as ENC snow goes...i personally have no clue....im not that good with all this...but some other reputable people on this site also think that there is that chance....for instance...have a look at the topic named "Early ideas on southern snow (MAP!)"...the map link given in that one is one guys ideas on what could happen..and hes had pretty good ideas before...so....the chance is there..and some people are going for it...the NWS is not all up for it....yet....but that might change here soon

storms NC · #3 Postby **storms NC** » Thu Dec 23, 2004 9:28 am

Well I know you are wishing for it. But I am sorry it just is not going to happen. For one the cold air will not be in here in time then the dry air will push in. So no White Christmas. Sorry. :oops:

storms NC · #4 Postby **storms NC** » Thu Dec 23, 2004 11:59 am

You know it does make you upset when it is snowing in La. I am glad they are getting it. Oh well there is always next year for us. Hey maybe we can get a big snow in Jan or Feb. you never know what can happen here in NC

.

MERRY CHRISTMAS TO ALL

JQ Public · #5 Postby **JQ Public** » Thu Dec 23, 2004 12:59 pm

Could this year be like last year when it comes to snow predictions for the south? Last year the models always trended further south than the snows actually fell. Normally core snows that were forecasted for the RDU area were experienced further west or north of model guidance. What signs show this couldn't happen again at least for the NC coast.

JQ Public · #6 Postby **JQ Public** » Fri Dec 24, 2004 1:43 pm

Looks like what i was saying is happening. They trended too far south...it wasn't even supposed to precip in nc atall.

air360 · #7 Postby **air360** » Fri Dec 24, 2004 2:12 pm

yes your right...BUT..sadly...i dont think the precip will be around long enough for it to get cold....right now its 2:12PM on friday and its 41F outside (here at MHX on the coast)...it is not suppose to drop down to cold until tonight...the NWS is saying at most maybe a little sleet mixed in...but nothing more really....so really its to little precip to early...

stormwatcher · #8 Postby **stormwatcher** » Fri Dec 24, 2004 3:52 pm

38 deg at Wilmington, NC airport. Radar looks like a steady stream of rain coming from the gulf. Temp has dropped 4 deg in the past 4 hours.

Bane · #9 Postby **Bane** » Fri Dec 24, 2004 3:54 pm

I'm south-southwest of you. It's 34 here with a little sleet mixed in with the rain.

stormwatcher · #10 Postby **stormwatcher** » Fri Dec 24, 2004 3:58 pm

This looks like the same situation that developed over the eastern carolinas 15 years ago when we got 15 inches of snow in Wilmington at Christmas. I hope that is not the case this time. That shut the town down for days. I remember then the NWS said a little mix but no accumulation. For the next 24 - 36 hours they continued to revise the forcast. We'll See........

Bane · #11 Postby **Bane** » Fri Dec 24, 2004 4:02 pm

True, but the air isn't as cold as it was back then. Maybe it'll cool down more.

stormwatcher · #12 Postby **stormwatcher** » Fri Dec 24, 2004 4:07 pm

ILM now reporting 36 deg. Temps continue to drop. Actually I am 20 miles north of the river along the coast in Pender County.

storms NC · #13 Postby **storms NC** » Fri Dec 24, 2004 4:22 pm

It is 34 here in Wallace. and we have rain and sleet. I am about 45 miles northeast of you all

air360 · #14 Postby **air360** » Fri Dec 24, 2004 4:44 pm

im getting excited reading all of your posts north carolinians;) but...looking at the radar it looks as though the rain is going to end here in a few hours...as it is all moving ENE. so even if the temps do get cold enough..it may be to late....*sigh*.....

stormwatcher · #15 Postby **stormwatcher** » Fri Dec 24, 2004 4:48 pm

ILM and Jacksonville NWS have updated thier forcast for wintery precip Saturday night into Sunday Morning.

air360 · #16 Postby **air360** » Fri Dec 24, 2004 4:54 pm

yea...weve been showing that on our forecast up here at MHX most of the day today
http://www.weatherunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=28570
but...sleet just doesnt do it for me;) i want some of that white fluffy stuff!!! woohoo! ha...maybe the evening forecast update will be different yet again? We can only hope!

Also:

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City North Carolina
345 PM EST Friday Dec 24 2004

Short term (tonight-sun night)
will continue with mixed precipitation chance r-/ip- for southern sections County warning forecast area through
this evening as weak shtwv moves along CST then away from region. Accumulate not
expected. Will keep skies mostly cloudy tonight with mins from the middle 20s
inland to the middle 30s on the CST. Cloud cover dmnshs from the west on
Christmas day with highs only reaching the lower to middle 40s and partly cloudy
skies. Big difference between models on posn and timing on next southern strm
weather system approaching from the SW. GFS surface low posn is slower than ETA model and
further offshore for the Sat night through sun time frame. Both models
show quantitative precipitation forecast moving into coastal sections. Forecast min temperatures and model sndngs
suggest the possiblity of another mixed precipitation event. Due to uncertainty
and limited quantitative precipitation forecast will opt for low probability of precipitation for coastal and adjacent coastal
counties for lt Sat night continuing through middle Morning Sun...then all rain for the
rest of the day. Similar to current system...don't expect a sig winter
event. Weather system and associated precipitation moves off rapidly to the NE with
drier air mass conds to ensue Sun night as high pressure builds into
area.

#17 Postby **wxguy25** » Fri Dec 24, 2004 6:01 pm

Well I have SOME good news for you NC, VA, Jersey, MA and New England folks.

the newer data is suggesting that the PJ s/w may drop far enough south over the lakes to phase w/ the STJ energy as it rounds the base of the trough, allowing the SLP area to get caught and pulled northward closer to the coast than the previous data was suggesting.

How much closer to the coast remains to be seen, but w/ phasing taking place and the STJ s/w trough developing a negative tilt, one could assume that the SLP area would deepen more quickly as it moves northeastward.

The 0z model cycle will be VERY interesting....

Map will be out late tonight IF the situation warrants, and I can kick my in-laws out quickly enough.

air360 · #18 Postby **air360** » Fri Dec 24, 2004 6:06 pm

thanks wxguy25 for all your work! Can always count on you having a good understanding on what these models are saying becuase i know i sure dont understand them as well as i would like to. Thanks for keeping us updated!!

Website · #19 Postby **Brent** » Fri Dec 24, 2004 6:09 pm

wxguy25 wrote:Map will be out late tonight IF the situation warrants, and I can kick my in-laws out quickly enough.

Good luck.

:roflmao:

#20 Postby **wxguy25** » Fri Dec 24, 2004 6:33 pm

Brent wrote:
wxguy25 wrote:Map will be out late tonight IF the situation warrants, and I can kick my in-laws out quickly enough.

Good luck.

Yes, Ill need it.

Snow for Eastern NC Christmas Day????

Snow for Eastern NC Christmas Day????

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