NWS N.O, don't give up snow lovers!!!

[Stormcenter]

Hey this is for the good people in the Big Easy.
I still think you folks have a much better chance than you realize despite what others have posted.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
315 PM CST THU DEC 23 2004

.DISCUSSION...
GAINING MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE LOW PROBABILITY WINTER PRECIPITATION
PROSPECTS FOR FRIDAY. WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A BAROCLINIC
ZONE LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE COAST LINE TO LIMIT THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHERNMOST
COASTAL PLAINS. DEEP COLD AIRMASS SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH PRECIPITATION
GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-12 CORRIDOR BUT A FEW FLURRIES MAY SQUEEZE
OUT. THE MOST LIKELY SWATH SEEMS TO BE SETTING UP ACROSS THE NEW
ORLEANS METRO AREA AND ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST. THE
SOUNDINGS AND VARIOUS FAVORED THICKNESS APPROACHES SUGGEST A GREATER
LIKELIHOOD OF SLEET AS THE PRECIPITATION OF CHOICE. WILL BE LEANING
THAT WAY BUT WET-BULB AFFECT MAY IMPART SOME MIXED FLURRIES...
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE SWATH. UNCERTAINTIES
STILL EXIST IN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN SO WILL MAINTAIN 20
PERCENT FARTHER INLAND AND 30 PERCENT UNDER THE MOST LIKELY
SWATH...TRENDING TO ALL LIQUID RAINFALL NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST AND
OFFSHORE. AN ATYPICAL SITUATION THIS GO-ROUND AS THE COLD AIR IS IN
PLACE AND THE MOISTURE IS IN QUESTION...USUALLY THE REVERSE IS TRUE.
AN SPSLIX HAS BEEN ISSUED TO DISCUSS THE FURTHER.

MEANWHILE...AFTER THE EXCITEMENT OF TOMORROW THE MAIN CONCERN WILL
RESORT TO FREEZE TEMPERATURES. THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS HAS YET TO
EXPERIENCE A FREEZE SINCE JANUARY 8TH 2002 AND THIS LOOKS TO BE IN
JEOPARDY CHRISTMAS MORNING. A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHSHORE AREAS CHRISTMAS MORNING BUT SEVERAL EPISODES HAVE ALREADY
TAKEN PLACE THIS SEASON. HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PACKAGE WITH THE GREATER EMPHASIS ON THE SHORT TERM
EXPECTATIONS.

IN THE MARINE ZONES...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL AT THIS
TIME BUT EXPECTING A RETURN TO CRITERIA WITH DEVELOPMENTS AND
GRADIENT TIGHTENING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

[Steve]

All the tv websites still had a mix in the forecast for tomorrow (4, 6 and 8) on their forecast pictures. I'm not giving up hope. I don't care if it's a stray snowflake or pellet of ice. At least it's something to help me spread the holiday cheer. While that's not the type of precipitation that we can use to freeze margaritas or ice down our beers on the front lawn, 30% chance beats the squat outta no chance at all.

Steve

[vbhoutex]

All the tv websites still had a mix in the forecast for tomorrow (4, 6 and 8) on their forecast pictures. I'm not giving up hope. I don't care if it's a stray snowflake or pellet of ice. At least it's something to help me spread the holiday cheer. While that's not the type of precipitation that we can use to freeze margaritas or ice down our beers on the front lawn, 30% chance beats the squat outta no chance at all.

Steve

EXACTLY!!! And it doesn't matter whether it is NO or Houston!!!

[bfez1]

All the tv websites still had a mix in the forecast for tomorrow (4, 6 and 8) on their forecast pictures. I'm not giving up hope. I don't care if it's a stray snowflake or pellet of ice. At least it's something to help me spread the holiday cheer. While that's not the type of precipitation that we can use to freeze margaritas or ice down our beers on the front lawn, 30% chance beats the squat outta no chance at all.

Steve

I'm not giving up either. Right now at my house it is 32.6º. Now we just need the moisture.
Please let it snow, sleet , flurries, etc..........

[Skywatch_NC]

CHEERING ON FOR MY GULF COAST WXBUDS FROZEN PRECIP!!!!

!!!!

Eric

[WhiteShirt]

the local mets on the Houston stations on the 5pm broadcast have all forecasted a 20-30% chance of snow along the texas coast. one forecaster (cbs affiliate) said there would be flurries in the houston area tomorrow.

[Cookiely]

Good luck to my southern friends on the board. I hope that some of you get some snow since the chances of me getting some are a billion to one.

[Lindaloo]

Local Met here has not given up yet either.

[southerngale]

We're down to 20% chance. I don't think we'll see anything. So close yet so far. *sigh*

Maybe we'll have another shot at some decent snow in 15 years.

Excerpt from local met at KFDM Ch.6

Now for Friday...new data from today shows surface low passing well south of the area. This will keep most of the measurable precip to our south throuh early Christmas. Still think a few snow flurries will be possible from I-10 south Friday into early Christmas morning. The air is so dry though above the surface alot of the activity will evaporate (Virga) before reaching the ground.

[WhiteShirt]

We're down to 20% chance. I don't think we'll see anything. So close yet so far. *sigh*

Maybe we'll have another shot at some decent snow in 15 years.

Excerpt from local met at KFDM Ch.6

Now for Friday...new data from today shows surface low passing well south of the area. This will keep most of the measurable precip to our south throuh early Christmas. Still think a few snow flurries will be possible from I-10 south Friday into early Christmas morning. The air is so dry though above the surface alot of the activity will evaporate (Virga) before reaching the ground.

Don't give up!!! There is at least a 20% chance...and haven't the models flipflopped a couple of times in the last week? Keep believing!!!

[Opal storm]

Local met here said our chance is now down to only 30%,in other words there's a 70% chance that we'll get nothing.I still think I might get some morning flurries or sleet pellets.