Houston / Galveston DISCUSSION

[TexasSam]

They seem to be very late. Normaly comes out about 3am. It's near 5am. Aslo seems that the Moisture is a bit more north of where they were expecting it. I guess they could be talking about it, and changing local forecasts. I guess we'll find out before long. as of 5am the temp in my back yard just hit 32.0

[TexasSam]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
456 AM CST FRI DEC 24 2004

.DISCUSSION...
POLAR RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AS PRESSURES
FALLING EAST OF BROWNSVILLE. TROUGH EAST OF BROWNSVILLE FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING AND THIS SHOULD INCREASE WINDS OVER THE
AREA...WILL PROBABLY GET BREEZY ON THE COAST AND COULD SEE GUSTS
AROUND 30 MPH. CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THICKENING UP AND GUIDANCE FROM
BOTH ETA AND GFS INDICATE THE CLOUDS TO BLANKET THE AREA THROUGHOUT
THE DAY THEN THIN OUT FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS CLOUD
COVER SHOULD CURTAIL THE DIURNAL RANGE TO ONLY A FEW DEGREES WITH
TEMPERATURES ALREADY AT OR BELOW FREEZING OVER MOST OF THE INLAND
AREAS. UPPER LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE BIG BEND WILL MOVE EAST AND VERY
STRONG JET (135+ KTS) TO SWING ACROSS THE REGION. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION MAXIMIZING LIFT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF LIFT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...ALBEIT WEAK.
MODEL SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT ARE ALL BELOW
FREEZING...EXCEPT PERHAPS THE LOWER 1000 FT (IF THE ETA IS
CORRECT...GFS SHALLOWER) AND SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SNOW
REACHING THE GROUND. ALICE SHOWING SNOW AT 10Z. WILL CONTINUE THE 40
POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES TAPERING OFF TO 20 POPS FOR THE
CENTRAL ZONES TODAY. NOT EXPECTING MEASURABLE ACCUMULATION OF SNOW
AS THE GROUND IS VERY WARM BUT LIQUID ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME ICING OF BRIDGES AFTER IT RE-FREEZES. UPPER JET
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND TAKES THE SNOW WITH IT BY
MIDNIGHT FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THEN THE AREA SHOULD BOTTOM OUT
WITH THE COLDEST NIGHT...TEENS CHRISTMAS MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA AND LOWER TO MID 20S CENTRAL AND 28 TO 30 FOR THE
COAST. HIGH MOVES EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD
MAKE FOR A SLOW WARMUP AND DRY CONDITIONS. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN
LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES THURSDAY AS TROUGH
OVER THE SW GETS ORGANIZED AND MOISTURE RETURN GETS RICHER. IF THE
GFS IS CORRECT THE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE MUCH BETTER THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY...BUT ECMWF INDICATING A SLOWER TRANSLATION EAST SO WILL
JUST BROAD-BRUSH IT WITH 20S AND 30S FOR POPS.