Strong s/w at 500mb continues to trend stronger on SFC ...

[Stormsfury]

reflections ... resulting in a possibly now of a dynamically enhanced snowfall across the Central/Eastern Carolinas on Saturday/Sunday as the h5 s/w initiates SFC low development offshore of the Carolinas on Saturday ... the h5 low itself, despite thickness schemes being depicted too warm, according to the model progs sets up a deformation zone across the Coastal Regions of the Carolinas, which IMHO, lends credence that the thickness schemes will plummet in the heaviest bands (or on a mesoscale basis which the models will not pick up on), which would support FRZ precip, and possibly snowfall as the DZ taps into the very, cold mid-level air with the heavier precip.

A very hair-trigger situation with a CAD scenario (although, not a classical case), but wedging will play a BIG factor in P-types across the region tomorrow and Sunday as the system exits far enough offshore later in the period.

Have a Merry Christmas, and a Happy New Year to all ...
SF

[wxguy25]

reflections ... resulting in a possibly now of a dynamically enhanced snowfall across the Central/Eastern Carolinas on Saturday/Sunday as the h5 s/w initiates SFC low development offshore of the Carolinas on Saturday ... the h5 low itself, despite thickness schemes being depicted too warm, according to the model progs sets up a deformation zone across the Coastal Regions of the Carolinas, which IMHO, lends credence that the thickness schemes will plummet in the heaviest bands (or on a mesoscale basis which the models will not pick up on), which would support FRZ precip, and possibly snowfall as the DZ taps into the very, cold mid-level air with the heavier precip.

A very hair-trigger situation with a CAD scenario (although, not a classical case), but wedging will play a BIG factor in P-types across the region tomorrow and Sunday as the system exits far enough offshore later in the period.

Have a Merry Christmas, and a Happy New Year to all ...
SF

Thicknesses suck when it comes to ptype forecasting. Especially deep-layer thicknesses since they don't resolve the shallow or weak below freezing layers. Just use BUFKIT soundings.


BTW whats your take on the phasing (18z ETA/GFS)

[Stormsfury]

Thicknesses suck when it comes to ptype forecasting. Especially deep-layer thicknesses since they don't resolve the shallow or weak below freezing layers. Just use BUFKIT soundings.

BTW whats your take on the phasing (18z ETA/GFS)

LOL ... you caught me heading out to Becky's ... I really hate the 18z runs, period, but every single model has trended the same direction, and cannot be ignored ... part of the issue is that the s/w in the southern stream is NOW in an area of decent OBS, as well as a piece of s/w energy in the northern stream ... still NOT completely sold on the phasing idea as of yet, but should BOTH continue to trend stronger and the northern piece digs further .. look out ....

CC possibilities all over again (BUT chances of that happening are about as high as getting married by the end of the New Year) ...

SF

[Brent]

What do you think about possible frozen stuff in Central Alabama/Georgia? A little sleet is all I'm asking for but I'd love snow.

[Bane]

the h5 low itself, despite thickness schemes being depicted too warm, according to the model progs sets up a deformation zone across the Coastal Regions of the Carolinas, which IMHO, lends credence that the thickness schemes will plummet in the heaviest bands (or on a mesoscale basis which the models will not pick up on), which would support FRZ precip, and possibly snowfall as the DZ taps into the very, cold mid-level air with the heavier precip.

I'd be very happy to see that happen.

[Wannabewxman79]

Me too but that will be a cold day in hell but apparently hell is freezing over right now as Brownsville, Freaking, Texas is getting snow and we aren't!