Snow for Eastern NC Christmas Day????
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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wxguy25
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 708
- Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 4:44 pm
- Location: East Central Florida
- Contact:
air360 wrote:i fear getting your in-laws out could end up being harder than getting the south east covered in snow for christmas!! Good luck !!
Im mainly referring to my (wonderful) mother in law, my father in law is welcome anytime. LOL
They are separated and we can only have one of them over at a time b/c they can't function in a civilized--adult like manner when in each other’s presence
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Wannabewxman79
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 181
- Joined: Wed Sep 17, 2003 12:53 pm
- Location: Riegelwood, NC (20 miles W of Wilmington)
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
509 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2004
NCZ087-096-099-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-252155-
BLADEN NC-COLUMBUS NC-DARLINGTON SC-DILLON SC-FLORENCE SC-MARION SC-
MARLBORO SC-ROBESON NC-WILLIAMSBURG SC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BENNETTSVILLE...DARLINGTON...DILLON...
ELIZABETHTOWN...FLORENCE...HARTSVILLE...KINGSTREE...LAKE CITY...
LUMBERTON...MARION...MULLINS...TABOR CITY AND WHITEVILLE
509 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2004
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE UP THE EAST COAST TONIGHT.
A MIX OF PRECIPITATION WILL FALL OVER THE REGION AS THE STORM PASSES
BY THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
INLAND LOCALES WILL SEE A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET WITH TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES. CLOSER TO THE COAST
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS A MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND SLEET.
ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH BUT
ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH COULD BE POSSIBLE WELL
INLAND FROM THE COAST.
THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE STORMS TRACK
AND THE IMPACT IT WILL HAVE ON THE REGION. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FORECAST AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATION WEATHER SERVICE FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON THIS DEVELOPING STORM.
A WINTER STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE, BUT NOT IMMINENT. AT THE TIME, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND/OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS. FUTURE DRIVING AND WALKING
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS, SO IT IS IMPORTANT TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS.
$$
CORRECTION TO HEADLINE SENTENCE
TRL/DCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
509 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2004
NCZ087-096-099-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-252155-
BLADEN NC-COLUMBUS NC-DARLINGTON SC-DILLON SC-FLORENCE SC-MARION SC-
MARLBORO SC-ROBESON NC-WILLIAMSBURG SC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BENNETTSVILLE...DARLINGTON...DILLON...
ELIZABETHTOWN...FLORENCE...HARTSVILLE...KINGSTREE...LAKE CITY...
LUMBERTON...MARION...MULLINS...TABOR CITY AND WHITEVILLE
509 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2004
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE UP THE EAST COAST TONIGHT.
A MIX OF PRECIPITATION WILL FALL OVER THE REGION AS THE STORM PASSES
BY THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
INLAND LOCALES WILL SEE A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET WITH TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES. CLOSER TO THE COAST
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS A MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND SLEET.
ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH BUT
ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH COULD BE POSSIBLE WELL
INLAND FROM THE COAST.
THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE STORMS TRACK
AND THE IMPACT IT WILL HAVE ON THE REGION. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FORECAST AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATION WEATHER SERVICE FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON THIS DEVELOPING STORM.
A WINTER STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE, BUT NOT IMMINENT. AT THE TIME, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND/OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS. FUTURE DRIVING AND WALKING
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS, SO IT IS IMPORTANT TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS.
$$
CORRECTION TO HEADLINE SENTENCE
TRL/DCH
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FXUS62 KILM 250915
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
414 AM EST FRI DEC 24 2004
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FRONT REMAINS WELL OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...AS SEEN ON KLTX 88D. EXPECTING MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK TO
HANG AROUND FOR MOST OF THE DAY. DECK MAY BEGIN TO BREAK UP LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
TONIGHT THE FUN STARTS. AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY RESIDING IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON
AND BEGIN TO DEEPEN OFF THE COAST. STORM IS NOW LOOKING LIKE IT MAY
BE A CLASSIC MILLER TYPE A. EACH RUN OF THE ETA/GFS/ECMWF MAKE THE
STORM LOOK MORE AND MORE IMPOSING. LOW LEVEL (1000 TO 850 MB)
THICKNESS VALUES REMAIN AT OR BELOW THE FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP
THRESHOLD FOR MOST OF SUNDAY. LOWEST LEVELS WILL BE DRY...DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS IN THE 8 TO 10 DEGREE RANGE...WITH PRECIP FALLING IN
THIS DRY AIR HELPING TO FURTHER COOL AIR TEMPERATURES.
STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROF SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE MAY BE HELPING PULL THE
STORM FARTHER NORTH INSTEAD OF ALLOWING IT TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
COAST. IF THIS IS THE CASE AND THE WAVE IN QUESTION IS STRONGER THAN
GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY SHOWING...THIS STORM COULD MORE OF A NORTHERLY
TRACK. A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK WILL INCREASE MOISTURE INLAND AND
COULD LEAD TO INCREASED PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS. MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN
TRENDING COLDER AND WETTER WITH EACH RUN. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IT
IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM.
NEXT PROBLEM WILL BE WHAT FORM WILL PRECIP THAT DOES FALL TAKE.
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES YIELD A SNOW/SLEET
MIX INLAND CHANGING TO A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX ALONG THE
COAST. AFTER CONVERSATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND HPC HAVE
DECIDED A WSW IS MOST LIKELY NEEDED FOR ALL NON COASTAL COUNTIES. A
MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN/RAIN IS EXPECTED DEPENDANT ON
DISTANCE FROM THE COAST.
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
414 AM EST FRI DEC 24 2004
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FRONT REMAINS WELL OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...AS SEEN ON KLTX 88D. EXPECTING MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK TO
HANG AROUND FOR MOST OF THE DAY. DECK MAY BEGIN TO BREAK UP LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
TONIGHT THE FUN STARTS. AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY RESIDING IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON
AND BEGIN TO DEEPEN OFF THE COAST. STORM IS NOW LOOKING LIKE IT MAY
BE A CLASSIC MILLER TYPE A. EACH RUN OF THE ETA/GFS/ECMWF MAKE THE
STORM LOOK MORE AND MORE IMPOSING. LOW LEVEL (1000 TO 850 MB)
THICKNESS VALUES REMAIN AT OR BELOW THE FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP
THRESHOLD FOR MOST OF SUNDAY. LOWEST LEVELS WILL BE DRY...DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS IN THE 8 TO 10 DEGREE RANGE...WITH PRECIP FALLING IN
THIS DRY AIR HELPING TO FURTHER COOL AIR TEMPERATURES.
STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROF SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE MAY BE HELPING PULL THE
STORM FARTHER NORTH INSTEAD OF ALLOWING IT TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
COAST. IF THIS IS THE CASE AND THE WAVE IN QUESTION IS STRONGER THAN
GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY SHOWING...THIS STORM COULD MORE OF A NORTHERLY
TRACK. A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK WILL INCREASE MOISTURE INLAND AND
COULD LEAD TO INCREASED PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS. MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN
TRENDING COLDER AND WETTER WITH EACH RUN. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IT
IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM.
NEXT PROBLEM WILL BE WHAT FORM WILL PRECIP THAT DOES FALL TAKE.
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES YIELD A SNOW/SLEET
MIX INLAND CHANGING TO A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX ALONG THE
COAST. AFTER CONVERSATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND HPC HAVE
DECIDED A WSW IS MOST LIKELY NEEDED FOR ALL NON COASTAL COUNTIES. A
MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN/RAIN IS EXPECTED DEPENDANT ON
DISTANCE FROM THE COAST.
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well...according to the NWS...right now...not to likely....but we can still hope...seeing as how things keep changing and all
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City North Carolina
303 am EST Sat Dec 25 2004
Short term (today-sunday)...significant changes from previous forecast as
models now track southern stream system closer to CST with much better precipitation
chances. ETA model/GFS fairly close showing moisture overspreading region
late tonight and continue through middle part of Sunday. Critical
thickness/forecast soundings indicate all rain along imd CST. As head
inland low levels cold enough for winter mix. Moisture/quantitative precipitation forecast expected to
decrease as head west so still some uncertainty on coverage/amount of
precipitation inland. For now plan on issuing a Special Weather Statement
to cover the threat of frozen precipitation and let dayshift update to
advry/warning as certainty increases. Will range probability of precipitation from likely
CST to high chance inland by Sunday morning. Do not expect much snow
acumm as sounding show better potential for sleet and freezing rain.
Precipitation will then end from SW to NE Sun afternoon as system moves NE.
Highs today mainly 40 to 45. Lows tonight around 30 deep inland to
lower 40s other bnks. Highs Sunday upper 30s inland and north to upper 40s
Outer Banks. &&
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City North Carolina
303 am EST Sat Dec 25 2004
Short term (today-sunday)...significant changes from previous forecast as
models now track southern stream system closer to CST with much better precipitation
chances. ETA model/GFS fairly close showing moisture overspreading region
late tonight and continue through middle part of Sunday. Critical
thickness/forecast soundings indicate all rain along imd CST. As head
inland low levels cold enough for winter mix. Moisture/quantitative precipitation forecast expected to
decrease as head west so still some uncertainty on coverage/amount of
precipitation inland. For now plan on issuing a Special Weather Statement
to cover the threat of frozen precipitation and let dayshift update to
advry/warning as certainty increases. Will range probability of precipitation from likely
CST to high chance inland by Sunday morning. Do not expect much snow
acumm as sounding show better potential for sleet and freezing rain.
Precipitation will then end from SW to NE Sun afternoon as system moves NE.
Highs today mainly 40 to 45. Lows tonight around 30 deep inland to
lower 40s other bnks. Highs Sunday upper 30s inland and north to upper 40s
Outer Banks. &&
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storms NC
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 247
- Age: 69
- Joined: Tue Sep 14, 2004 2:41 pm
- Location: Coast of NC & southwest coast of Fla
Hey I am just 15 min south of you in Wallace
wolfray wrote:When I started this thread; this was not the event I had in mind, but I'll take it. Looks as though thinks could get interesting tonight into Sunday morning. All you guys that really know weather; keep us posted. Southeastern NC is depending on you for info. Merry Christmas to all......
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