Will snow make it to Tallahassee?

[tallywx]

Interesting 12z GFS sounding forecasted for 6z early tomorrow morning:



Interesting to see the saturated layer below 8k that has reached wet bulb very close to freezing all the way up.

Here's the corresponding precipitation map from that time:



Shows a bullseye of precip. associated with the 500 mb vort max on the back side of the low.

None of the models forecasted the flurries currently occurring over parts of LA, so all of this could translate eastward. Additionally, the low in the Gulf seems to be strengthening more than expected, which could pull down additional cold air. From NWS Tallahassee morning discussion:

PRECIPITATION...NEXT CONCERN IS FROZEN PRECIP. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING MOST OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AND LOW WET BULBS COMBINED WITH THE POTENTIALLY STRONGER GOMEX SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS FLORIDA OVERNIGHT COULD DRAW IN COLDER AIR AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME FROZEN PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA.

Could this extend down to FL for a surprise snow? Let me know what you all think.

[Scorpion]

That would cap off an unprecedented Southern Christmas snowstorm!! Maybe it gets down into the Peninisula .

[Terry]

I've been telling the Storm2K "Chatters" all week that it would snow in Tally. Not that I really have a clue. Weirder things have happened this fall and this month.

Here is hoping you get some flurries.

Merry Christmas!

[Stormsfury]

Shows a bullseye of precip. associated with the 500 mb vort max on the back side of the low.

None of the models forecasted the flurries currently occurring over parts of LA, so all of this could translate eastward. Additionally, the low in the Gulf seems to be strengthening more than expected, which could pull down additional cold air. From NWS Tallahassee morning discussion:

PRECIPITATION...NEXT CONCERN IS FROZEN PRECIP. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING MOST OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AND LOW WET BULBS COMBINED WITH THE POTENTIALLY STRONGER GOMEX SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS FLORIDA OVERNIGHT COULD DRAW IN COLDER AIR AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME FROZEN PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA.

Could this extend down to FL for a surprise snow? Let me know what you all think.

Posted something regarding this last night before heading out spending Christmas elsewhere. But the 500mb low could easily be capable to produce dynamic cooling INOV the deformation zone that sets up on the NW side of it ... and the Latest RUC has a swath of snow breaking out from the coast of AL to portions of the Panhandle of Florida northward into Southern GA, and Southern SC ...

SF

[SunnyThoughts]

Stormsfury, would that part of the panhandle include Pensacola...Now Im beginning to feel like Brent felt yesterday. Snow to the west of me...probably to the north and possibly to the east also...thats gonna be sad if it plays out that way. Im still happy for everyone else who has already received it and will do so in the late afternoon and evening tonight.

[Brent]

Stormsfury, would that part of the panhandle include Pensacola...Now Im beginning to feel like Brent felt yesterday. Snow to the west of me...probably to the north and possibly to the east also...thats gonna be sad if it plays out that way. Im still happy for everyone else who has already received it and will do so in the late afternoon and evening tonight.

[hurricanemike]

Currently in NE FL (close to BarometerBob) out in Baker County (parents house), its 40.0/38.4 with the temp slowly dropping. Watching and waiting to see if there is any changeover overnight.

[Anonymous]

Temps in Ne Fla is already colder than forecasted overnight lows---we may have a chance of ice here too ... Went to the store earlier and heard something hitting the windshield hard but didnt see any ice--maybe just melting right now-I dunno. Maybe with S Ga under winter storm warinings and all, it will make it colder here so we get some too.