Ultra Powerful Winter Storm to Impact Southern California

[Tornado_Chaser2005]

Unbelievable model runs are showing a system like no other. It looks cold and warm. Warmer in front of the storm, and much colder in the center of the storm. A strong signal Cold Front. Models are bashing the Southern California with rain after rain after rain, with lots of thunderstorms possible mon-wed, more likely tuesday. Ill keep this thread updateded, all you So Californians, what are your takes?

[Wnghs2007]

Welcome to what a NEGATIVE PNA can do for the west coast.

[Tornado_Chaser2005]

I just did a Major Model run of everything, and put together a forecast for Southern California, including the LA Basin, Orange County, Riverside, and SB Counties.

PRE-STORM FACTS: THIS NEW SECTION IS TO SHOW YOU THAT THE OWS METEOROLOGISTS KNOW WHAT THEY ARE TALKING ABOUT. WE WILL EXPLAIN WITH SKY FORTHCOMING THE EVENT. HERE WE GO. YOU CAN CHECK UP ON THE SKY AT THE TIMES WE SAY TO SEE IF OUR ANALYSIS SHOWS RIGHT. IF IT DOES, COUNT ON THE BELOW FORECASTS TO BE CORRECT. BEFORE THE STORM, WE WILL HAVE HIGH CLOUDS, MAINLY HAZY CIRRUS CLOUDS. WHEN YOU WAKE UP TOMORROW MORNING, EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES, WITH LOTS OF HIGH ALTITUDE CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. THIS ANAYLSIS IS BASED ON THE 500MB RH MODEL BEING AT 100% RH. THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY AS WELL, BUT NOTICEABLE

THE RAIN CHANCES WINTER STORM WILL BRING LOTS OF RAIN, AND FLASH FLOODING WILL OCCUR. ALL THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD KEEP ON ALERT FOR RISING WATER, AND DRIVE CAREFULLY IN THIS STORM. THE RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE LOS ANGELES AREA LATE MONDAY EVENING, AND SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT EXPECT THE MAIN RAIN BAND TO BE COVERING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. RAIN WILL BE COMING DOWN VERY HARD, AND FLOODING WILL BE OCCURING. THIS IS BASED ON THE MODELS 850MB RH BEING AT 100%, WITH AN INCREDIBLE 40-45KNT 850MB WIND SPEED. THIS WILL MAKE AREAS SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS HAVE THE MOST RAIN. THE RAIN WILL BE RELENTLESS ON TUESDAY MORNING FOR YOUR RUSH HOUR COMMUTE. ANALYSIS SHOWS A SMALL BREAK IN THE ACTION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, HOWEVER IT CRANKS BACK UP AFTER SUNSET. AFTER MIDNIGHT, INTO EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY THE RAIN SHOULD BE COMING DOWN WITH FULL FORCE ONCE AGAIN AS THE SECOND FRONT COMES THROUGH. IT WILL BE RAINING ALL DAY ON WEDNESDAY, WITH NO BREAKS. ALMOST ALL DAY ON THURSDAY WILL HAVE RAIN POURING DOWN AS WELL, SO DO NOT LET YOUR GUARD DOWN. A BREAK IN THE RAIN WILL HAPPEN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 4PM. NOT A BIG BREAK WHERE SKIES CLEAR, JUST SOLID RAIN TURNING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. AFTER SUNSET ON THURSDAY, AND INTO MIDNIGHT NEW YEARS EVE EARLY MORNING, THE RAIN SHOULD START TO FALL ONCE AGAIN. BE VERY CAREFUL ON THE ROADS SINCE IT'S NEW YEARS EVE, RAINING, AND ALOT OF PEOPLE WILL BE OUT AND ABOUT. THE RAIN SHOULD LET UP NEW YEARS EVEN NIGHT JUST A BIT, AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN STORM STAGE WHEN 2005 HITS. YOUR NEW YEARS SHOULD BE A BIT COOL, SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS, A FEW SHOWERS, AND WET GROUNDS. AFTER NEW YEARS, THE FIRST DAY OF WORK, OR SCHOOL FOR YOU YOUNG PEOPLE WILL BE PLEASANT, WITH CLEARING SKIES, AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. AN ALERT LEVEL 5 WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED TOMORROW NIGHT, SO CHECK YOUR EMAILS THE NEXT DAY FOR A COMPLETE ANALYSIS, ALONG WITH THE ALERT LEVEL.

THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WINTER STORM WILL YIELD MANY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE FIRST ROUND OF DYNAMICS SEEM TO COME IN ALONG THE FIRST COLD FRONT THAT IMPACTS THE FORECAST AREA MIDNIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANALYSIS WITH THIS SHOWS A NEVER BEFORE SEEN VALUE ON THE 700MBVV CHART OF NEARING 40 -UB/S. THIS ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS AT 40-45KNTS WILL GIVE AWAY TO THE VERY GOOD CHANCE OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FRONT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, AND POSSIBLY BOW ECHO THUNDERSTORMS, WITH DAMAGING WINDS. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS COLD FRONT, AND MUST BE MONITORED CAREFULLY.
TORNADOES COULD VERY WELL BE A POSSIBLITY WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. THE CHANCES WITH THIS FIRST THUNDERSTORM WAVE ENDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM IN THE COLD AIR ALOFT ANYTIME AFTER THAT, BUT NOT SEVERE LIKE WHAT WE WILL LIKELY SEE MONDAY NIGHT, INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THE SECOND WAVE OF THUNDERSTORM DYNAMICS WILL COME IN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT WILL NOT BE AS BAD, AS THE MOST WILL HEAD FURHER NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, HOWEVER STILL HAVE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THIS SECOND WAVE FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE A SMALL CHANCE AT BOWING OUT TO DAMAGING WINDS, AND AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL. TORNADOES COULD VERY WELL BE A POSSIBLITY WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM.

WIND CHANCES WINTER STORM WINDS WILL BE VERY STRONG ALONG THE FRONTS IT PRODUCES. AFTER A FRONT, THE WINDS DIE DOWN ALOT, SO EXPECT THIS. ON MONDAY NIGHT, EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL BE IN THE 35-40MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IF THE BOW ECHO DEVELOPS, THE WINDS WILL BE MUCH MUCH STRONG, EXCESS OF 70MPH, SO A HURRICANE LIKE CONDITION, WITH RAIN AND WIND! AFTER THE FRONT PASSES, THE WINDS SHOULD CALM DOWN SOME. STILL A BIT BREEZY, BUT NOWHERE NEAR THE EFFECT YOU WILL FEEL MONDAY NIGHT, INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE WINDS SHOULD RAMP UP AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT, INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE VERY IDENTICAL TO THE FRONT THAT WILL PASS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. THE WIND STRENGTH WITHOUT A BOW ECHO WILL BE AROUND 35-40MPH WITH HIGH GUSTS. IF A BOW DEVELOPS, IT WILL REACH 65MPH OR MORE WIND. SHOULD CALM DOWN AFTER THAT. AN ALERT LEVEL 5 WIND WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SOON, AND A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED.

MEDIUM RANGE DISCUSSION...WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO POUND THE FORECAST AREA ALL WEEK LONG, WHERE LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL FOR THE WEEKEND.

[weatherlover427]

No matter which way you slice it, these maps do not look good for anywhere in the southern California area...