Getting Interesting in NC

[Suncat]

FXUS62 KRAH 251909
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
210 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. A WINTER STORM WARNING WILL BE ISSUED ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM SCOTLAND COUNTY TO HALIFAX COUNTY...AND A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM STANLY TO
GRANVILLE COUNTIES. WITH THE CYCLOGENESIS NOW OCCURRING WELL OVER
THE DATA-VOID GULF OF MEXICO...THE MODELS ARE LIKELY UNDERESTIMATING
THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PATTERN OF
STRONG CYCLOGENESIS WITH A PRONOUNCED COMMA HEAD WITH COOLING CLOUD
TOPS OVER LA/MS.

ONSET OF PRECIPITATION MAY BE INITIALLY DELAYED DUE TO DRY AIR IN
THE LOW LEVELS...BUT EXPECT DEEP SATURATION BY SUNRISE. PARTIAL
THICKNESS SCHEME INDICATES THE PRECIP BEGINNING AS SNOW IN ALL
LOCATIONS...USING BOTH ETA AND GFS THICKNESSES...AND SPREADING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTHEAST. THEN THE MODELS PART WAYS WITH THE GFS COOLING
THROUGH THE EVENT WHILE THE ETA SHOWS A WARM NOSE DEVELOPING AT 12Z
DUE TO A SOUTHEASTERLY 850 FLOW. THIS LEADS TO A CHANGEOVER TO
FREEZING RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST IN THE MORNING. AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...COLD ADVECTION OVERCOMES THE
WARM NOSE AND THE EVENT ENDS AS ALL SNOW BY 21Z.

ETA SHOWS MUCH HIGHER QPF THAN THE GFS...AND SINCE THE MODELS ARE
LIKELY UNDERESTIMATING THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...WILL GO WITH
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF THE ETA. THIS GIVES 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS. THE LOWER END OF THOSE AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE A CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING
RAIN WILL LIKELY OCCUR. THE FREEZING RAIN MAY ACCUMULATE TO A
QUARTER INCH BUT THIS DEPENDS HEAVILY ON THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM
NOSE. IN THE ADVISORY AREA 1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. THE TRIAD AREA
MAY SEE A DUSTING. OF COURSE...IF THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS FARTHER
WEST (OR EAST)...THESE AMOUNTS COULD BE HIGHER (OR LOWER).

[Bane]

If the GFS verifies with colder air through the event, we could be looking at a major problem all the way to the coast.

[Weather4Life23]

The 18z ETA looks a little less total QPF for RDU area, but Im not sure its a good idea to take these models as exact because of how they are not picking up on alot of the precip in LA/AL

[Skywatch_NC]

1-3" forecast for here in Raleigh...I'm in the northern edge of that area!

My sister, brother-in-law and their kids live in Roanoke Rapids where 4-6" is forecast!!

Eric

[Skywatch_NC]

Looks as though here in north Raleigh we received a mixture of light snow and sleet...don't know yet how much!

System has now exited Wake County...and highs progged to be in the lower 30s today so some melting as the afternoon comes with some partial sunshine.

Nice though for our first taste of frozen precip in this Winter of 2004-'05!!

Eric

[Wannabewxman79]

Nothing here in Wilmington..... Imagine that, Brownsville gets snow but we can't get anything. What a crock!

[NCSUWX23]

Looks as though here in north Raleigh we received a mixture of light snow and sleet...don't know yet how much!

System has now exited Wake County...and highs progged to be in the lower 30s today so some melting as the afternoon comes with some partial sunshine.

Nice though for our first taste of frozen precip in this Winter of 2004-'05!!

Eric

I cant believe that sharp cut off of the precipitation. I was very happy to see what we got, but im still impressed at how in Cary I saw about an inch and in morrisville RDU area saw maybe a flurry.

[wlfpack81]

I saw from Raleigh NWS that some spots in se-ern NC saw .25 to .5in of ice!!!! Not good.

[JQ Public]

Yup i only saw an inch in north raleigh. Luckily i woke up to catch the last few flakes fly across the sky at 9am Thats all i wanted to see. Anything on top of that would be a bonus. I've learned not to get so hyped up until the flakes start to fly