Significant winter storm to unfold for Southern half of

Stormsfury · #1 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sat Dec 25, 2004 4:32 pm

Georgia, a good portion of SC, and Eastern North Carolina ...

As discussed earlier this week, the dynamically driven 500mb low was underprogged (continuously) and with the northern stream and a previously undetected piece of s/w energy, a PARTIAL phasing is likely now, and with the current CAD situation beginning to unfold in the Carolinas, and TD's dropping into the upper teens, more and more onimous that a significant ice/sleet/snow event is about to unfold in the Carolinas (particularly South Carolina) ... winter storm warnings, and advisories are already out.

This event will continue to be underprogged by model guidance WRT to the strength of the system, underplaying cold air, particularly at the SFC, and thickness schemes are relatively useless, with mesoscale features and banding structures ... the aforementioned deformation zone setting up (in another discussion) is more likely, and could play a significant role in some heavy snowfall/FRZ totals, generally in a narrow swath where the DZ takes shape (most likely SC Midlands/CSPL..

The best overall advice/watching the event unfold is using the RUC, and mesoscale modeling (MESOETA, SREF, MM5), satellite, radar trends, and SFC OBS ...

For areas aforementioned in line with ZR/IP, this is a particularly dangerous situation WRT travel, trees, power lines, etc...hopefully the 500mb low and dynamical processes will be able to cool the mid-levels enough for a net result of more IP/SN vs. ZR...

Hope everyone has had a Merry Christmas and looking forward to a Happy New Year...

SF

Stormsfury · #2 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sat Dec 25, 2004 4:59 pm

To further add fire to the situation, TD's in Charleston have dropped 6 degrees in the past 2 hours (dewpoint now down to 23), with a current termp of 39... NNE winds at 15 MPH are PRIME for the Central Coast of South Carolina for cold air damming (which is also being someplay underprogged by current FG), which basically has me going pretty much full gong, sound the alarm that a significant winter weather event is about ready to unfold ...

Latest RUC continues to be very aggressive in the development of SN/IP/ZR just inland from the immediate coast of South Carolina, and current extrapolations lead me to believe that overnight tonight, conditions will rapidly deteoriate across the region. Sorry for the lack of updates on my website.... busy week, and over with family ATT...

SF

air360 · #3 Postby **air360** » Sat Dec 25, 2004 5:04 pm

SF, or anyone else who has any ideas.....what are your thoughts on around the coast of NC? ....to get real exact..say...right at the MHX radar location (its about 3 miles from my house). forecast here is still showing just some rain tonight....but with everyone saying this system is building do you think that is really all we will get or do you think it could be something more?

Stormsfury · #4 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sat Dec 25, 2004 5:06 pm

air360 wrote:SF, or anyone else who has any ideas.....what are your thoughts on around the coast of NC? ....to get real exact..say...right at the MHX radar location (its about 3 miles from my house). forecast here is still showing just some rain tonight....but with everyone saying this system is building do you think that is really all we will get or do you think it could be something more?

cold air damming scenarios are very tricky, and usually CAD situations at MHX don't reach there due to the orientation of the SFC winds, however ... I seriously doubt that you'll remain all rain for a period of time, and in fact, accumulations of ZR/IP/SN are definitely possible ...

SF

air360 · #5 Postby **air360** » Sat Dec 25, 2004 5:09 pm

thanks for your reply SF. this was just released right as i was reading your post...not what im hoping for....and cities are about 15min from me...but non the less...its getting closer to home:)

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
431 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2004

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

NCZ045-080-092-093-098-260913-
BEAUFORT-CRAVEN-JONES-ONSLOW-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...TRENTON...PLYMOUTH...
NEW BERN...JACKSONVILLE AND HAVELOCK
431 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2004

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 4 PM EST SUN
DAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

A MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND A LITTLE SLEET WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 17 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. SOME
LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION...LESS THAN 1/4 INCH...CAN BE EXPECTED ON
EXPOSED SURFACES SUCH AS TREES AND POWER LINES. THE MAIN THREAT OF
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF AREAS FROM
JACKSONVILLE...TRENTON...NEW BERN...WASHINGTON AND PLYMOUTH.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF WINTER
WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW, BLOWING SNOW, SLEET, FREEZING
RAIN AND EXTREME WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT,
THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

Anonymous · #6 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Dec 25, 2004 5:17 pm

How much chance for just across the border for NE Fla... It was supposed to only drop to 40 here by morning and we are already in the upper 30s before the sun even sets... Looks like we gonna be quite a bit colder after midnight and the storm keeps getting stronger than the models predict. With frozen precip falling in SE Ga, wont that in further drop temps in NE Fla? The NWS didnt predict the historic snowstorm in S Tx so maybe they will be wrong for N Fla as well?

Three Blind Mice · #7 Postby **Three Blind Mice** » Sat Dec 25, 2004 5:24 pm

SF, I know some would say -removed- but this really feels like a significant event. Seems the trend is definitely in favor of this being a frozen event for most areas during the duration. QPF #'s worry me if ice.

Loading a bus with 16-17 year old boys to play soccer in Tampa tonight at 11pm from Wilmington. Worries me that they will be driving right thru this mess. Hopefully they will get past the 0 line before it gets bad.

WHAT STRANGE FORECASTING WEEK THIS HAS BEEN!!!!!!!!

Stormsfury · #8 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sat Dec 25, 2004 6:13 pm

Three Blind Mice wrote:SF, I know some would say -removed- but this really feels like a significant event. Seems the trend is definitely in favor of this being a frozen event for most areas during the duration. QPF #'s worry me if ice.

Loading a bus with 16-17 year old boys to play soccer in Tampa tonight at 11pm from Wilmington. Worries me that they will be driving right thru this mess. Hopefully they will get past the 0 line before it gets bad.

WHAT STRANGE FORECASTING WEEK THIS HAS BEEN!!!!!!!!

In this case, there no -removed-, b/c it's already had a history of being a significant event (historic in South TX). New Orleans blanketed in white is ... significant ... with the 500mb s/w (low), again, dynamic cooling will likely take place, something that simply put, globals don't resolve very well, and/or are too overaggressive to warm (case in point, last night, and today WRT to the snowfalls along the LA coastline...)

Latest HPC QPF progs places well over an inch of liquid across the Eastern 1/3 of the Carolinas, bordering on 1.5"-2.0" of liquid ... about ¼ to ½ of that will be mixed w/or be FRZ ... dependant on the degree of CAD nosing down on NNE winds, and the ability for keeping that source fresh will play a HUGE role on just how much accumulations accrete/accumulate on the SFC.

Winter storms in the Southeast in this fashion are ALWAYS difficult, if not impossible to forecast due to ...

1) lack of RAOB observations where the resultant player originates
2) which causes skewed/flawed datasets, and no one can blame model guidance on that b/c simply of the lack of data.
3) many forecasters overlook the synoptic setup and dismiss threats until almost go time b/c of reasons 1 and 2.
4) complex patterns don't usually yield significant winter weather events such as this one.

SF

colawx · #9 Postby **colawx** » Sat Dec 25, 2004 6:16 pm

Stormsfury,
Thanks for your updates. I am Columbia and will be paying attention this website. Our local met says we will get between 1 and 3 inches (mostly snow) and a half inch of rain. Please keep us posted.

Bane · #10 Postby **Bane** » Sat Dec 25, 2004 6:20 pm

How far inland do you think the snow/sleet line will be? I live 30 miles inland.

Stormsfury · #11 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sat Dec 25, 2004 6:28 pm

Bane wrote:How far inland do you think the snow/sleet line will be? I live 30 miles inland.

I like your chances ...

colawx wrote:Stormsfury,
Thanks for your updates. I am Columbia and will be paying attention this website. Our local met says we will get between 1 and 3 inches (mostly snow) and a half inch of rain. Please keep us posted.

Hey, I think I've spoken with you before on TWC, and WWBB before. Welcome to Storm2k, man. actually, I won't be surprised if you are more in the range of 2"-4" with local 6" amounts ... maybe more, where the deformation zone (DZ) sets up...although, I think that will be closer to the South Carolina CSR (Coastal Region).

SF

#12 Postby **wxguy25** » Sat Dec 25, 2004 6:54 pm

Stormsfury wrote:
Bane wrote:How far inland do you think the snow/sleet line will be? I live 30 miles inland.

I like your chances ...

colawx wrote:Stormsfury,
Thanks for your updates. I am Columbia and will be paying attention this website. Our local met says we will get between 1 and 3 inches (mostly snow) and a half inch of rain. Please keep us posted.

Hey, I think I've spoken with you before on TWC, and WWBB before. Welcome to Storm2k, man. actually, I won't be surprised if you are more in the range of 2"-4" with local 6" amounts ... maybe more, where the deformation zone (DZ) sets up...although, I think that will be closer to the South Carolina CSR (Coastal Region).

SF

The 700mb low track is important here b/c the DZ and UVV maximum will follow its track. I expect the 0z data and the 21z SREF members to trend somewhat further west; as the 12z ECMWF 12z/18z GFS/ETA did and the 12z UKMET and RGEM are close to the both of the 12z US model solutions.. THIS should mean that coastal areas could get a reaming.

Stormsfury · #13 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sat Dec 25, 2004 7:04 pm

wxguy25 wrote:The 700mb low track is important here b/c the DZ and UVV maximum will follow its track. I expect the 0z data and the 21z SREF members to trend somewhat further west; as the 12z ECMWF 12z/18z GFS/ETA did and the 12z UKMET and RGEM are close to the both of the 12z US model solutions.. THIS should mean that coastal areas could get a reaming.

Explain reaming ... :lol:

Skywatch_NC · #14 Postby **Skywatch_NC** » Sat Dec 25, 2004 7:11 pm

Stormsfury wrote:
wxguy25 wrote:The 700mb low track is important here b/c the DZ and UVV maximum will follow its track. I expect the 0z data and the 21z SREF members to trend somewhat further west; as the 12z ECMWF 12z/18z GFS/ETA did and the 12z UKMET and RGEM are close to the both of the 12z US model solutions.. THIS should mean that coastal areas could get a reaming.

Explain reaming ...

Does that mean paper snowflakes? :wink:

air360 · #15 Postby **air360** » Sat Dec 25, 2004 7:13 pm

well....if he means it as in a foot-2 ft of snow...i think i would be the happiest person here....shoot if he means 1in of snow i would be the happiest person here...lol

#16 Postby **wxguy25** » Sat Dec 25, 2004 7:15 pm

Stormsfury wrote:
wxguy25 wrote:The 700mb low track is important here b/c the DZ and UVV maximum will follow its track. I expect the 0z data and the 21z SREF members to trend somewhat further west; as the 12z ECMWF 12z/18z GFS/ETA did and the 12z UKMET and RGEM are close to the both of the 12z US model solutions.. THIS should mean that coastal areas could get a reaming.

Explain reaming ...

We'll call it blasted, w/ mixed precip then snow.

http://weather.unisys.com/eta/30h/eta_700_30h.gif

Look at those UVV values at 30hrs off the NC coast of > 15 microbars/second. There you are likely getting a combination of WAA, DPVA and jet dynamics which are leading to the strong upward motion. BOTTOM LINE -- its going to get ugly along the NC/VA coast (in a good way though!)

#17 Postby **wxguy25** » Sat Dec 25, 2004 7:16 pm

air360 wrote:well....if he means it as in a foot-2 ft of snow...i think i would be the happiest person here....shoot if he means 1in of snow i would be the happiest person here...lol

Oh, I THINK i can get you that 1"

Stormsfury · #18 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sat Dec 25, 2004 7:20 pm

wxguy25 wrote:We'll call it blasted, w/ mixed precip then snow.

http://weather.unisys.com/eta/30h/eta_700_30h.gif

Look at those UVV values at 30hrs off the NC coast of > 15 microbars/second. There you are likely getting a combination of WAA, DPVA and jet dynamics which are leading to the strong upward motion. BOTTOM LINE -- its going to get ugly along the NC/VA coast (in a good way though!)

hmmm...about the only thing that may save us down here from a major icestorm ...

SF

air360 · #19 Postby **air360** » Sat Dec 25, 2004 7:20 pm

if you can get me a inch+ of snow at the MHX radar site on the coast (im 3 miles from there)...which would defy the NWS forecast for tonight which is
"A slight chance of rain this evening. Rain after midnight. Breezy with lows in the middle 30s...except lows in the lower 40s near the beaches. North winds 15 to 20 mph. "
then i would have to say you are one of the best forecasters ive ever read

Becka · #20 Postby **Becka** » Sat Dec 25, 2004 7:23 pm

Okay, what about NE MD?

Significant winter storm to unfold for Southern half of

Significant winter storm to unfold for Southern half of

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