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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
318 PM CST SAT DEC 25 2004
.SYNOPSIS...A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF AND BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION TONIGHT TO SOUTH ALABAMA.
DRY WEATHER WILL THEN PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FROM BELOW
NORMAL VALUES THIS WEEKEND TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT ACROSS AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85 IS THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE.
FOR THE SHORT TERM...PREFER THE ETA MODEL SINCE IT SEEMS TO BE
HANDLING MOISTURE AND POSITION OF THE LOW IN THE GULF BEST...
THOUGH IT IS UNDERESTIMATING ITS STRENGTH.
AT 3 PM CST...ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION STRETCHED ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST FROM SNOW/SLEET/AND FREEZING RAIN REPORTED OVER LOUISIANA
TO JUST RAIN REPORTED ACROSS FLORIDA AND WAS MOVING NORTHEAST.
SKIES WERE CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF ALABAMA...AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. MUCH DRIER AIR WAS OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTH ALABAMA WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S.
A LARGE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO.
TONIGHT...WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85 WHICH INCLUDES THE MONTGOMERY...AUBURN...
TROY...AND EUFAULA AREAS. PIKE AND BARBOUR COUNTIES WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER PRECIPITATION.
THIS EVENING...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...THOUGH IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO
SATURATE THE DRIER LOW LEVELS. IT WILL BEGIN AS RAIN. AS THE
AIR SATURATES...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND FREEZING AROUND
MIDNIGHT...SO THEN THE RAIN WILL LIKELY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BEFORE
ENDING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS WELL IN THE ADVISED AREA.
SINCE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WARMED INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...THE SNOW THAT FALLS LATE
TONIGHT IN THE ADVISED AREA WILL TAKE A WHILE TO STICK TO THE GROUND.
THEREFORE...THINK WE WILL NOT REACH WARNING CRITERIA OF GREATER THAN
2 INCHES OF SNOW. BELIEVE ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING
ALONG INTERSTATE 85 TO POSSIBLY AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS PIKE AND
BARBOUR COUNTIES. STILL...SLICK CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
ADVISED AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S. SEE THE UPCOMING WSWBMX FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND STATEMENTS REGARDING THIS
SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT AS THE EXACT STRENGTH AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE/AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN.
OTHERWISE...AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 85 WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND DRY TONIGHT WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE TONIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 20S.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ALTHOUGH LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE 20S...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARMUP CONSIDERABLY...INTO
THE 40S AND 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY FORECASTED 10 TO 12 DEGREES HIGHER THAN CLIMO DURING THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
WILL EVENTUALLY KICK OUT ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA.
MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS WEAK DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS FLOW ALOFT IS
ZONAL...SO DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON POPS AS MODELS TEND TO HAVE A
HARD TIME HANDLING CUT OFF LOWS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 19 46 21 50 25 / 00 00 00 00
ANNISTON 24 47 24 51 28 / 00 00 00 00
BIRMINGHAM 23 47 25 53 30 / 00 00 00 00
TUSCALOOSA 22 50 24 54 27 / 00 00 00 00
CALERA 23 48 24 53 29 / 00 00 00 00
AUBURN 27 47 27 53 29 / 50 05 00 00
MONTGOMERY 27 51 27 56 30 / 40 00 00 00
TROY 27 48 24 54 30 /100 10 00 00
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT
FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH A MONTGOMERY TO AUBURN LINE.
.