Back in the THICK of things!

azsnowman · #1 Postby **azsnowman** » Mon Dec 27, 2004 7:45 am

Here we go........"We're back in the Saddle again!" 8-)

After a 2 week break, we're BACK in the thick of things, sounds like this COULD be a WHOPPER of a system 8-)

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

MODELS NOW SHOWING STRONGER DYNAMICS WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES ACROSS AZ ON WED. THIS...COUPLED WITH STRONG OROGRAPHICS AND DEEP MOISTURE...WILL BRING A PERIOD OF 18-24 HOURS OF MODERATE PCPN TO THE AREA. LATEST MODEL SNOW LEVELS APPEAR TO BE A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. SNOW LEVELS ON TUE/WED ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 6500 FEET IN THE WEST...AND NEAR 7000 FEET IN THE EAST. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD BEGIN TO FALL TO 5000-6000 FEET ACROSS NRN AZ WED NIGHT. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS ARE IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND COULD SEE PERIODS OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR UPDATED MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISSUING FLOOD WATCHES. AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS... SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. TOO EARLY TO ISSUE EITHER OF THESE HEADLINE PRODUCTS SINCE THEY WILL OCCUR BEYOND THE 3RD PERIOD BUT DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER THIS. DB && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

weatherlover427 · #2 Postby **weatherlover427** » Mon Dec 27, 2004 8:23 am

Here's to hoping that this storm hits you guys as hard as it's supposed to hit us! We may get up to ONE FOOT (yes, ONE FOOT!!!) of rain in some areas from this storm!!!

azsnowman · #3 Postby **azsnowman** » Mon Dec 27, 2004 9:30 am

THIS STORM WILL DRAW COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AND ACROSS ARIZONA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CURRENT
FORECASTS INDICATE THAT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN MAY FALL OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF YAVAPAI AND GILA COUNTIES. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 6500 TO 7000 FEET FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...FALLING TO AROUND 6000 FEET LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED SNOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR THE MOGOLLON RIM...GRAND CANYON
COUNTRY...KAIBAB PLATEAU...AND COCONINO PLATEAU.

azsnowman · #4 Postby **azsnowman** » Mon Dec 27, 2004 9:40 am

From reading between the lines on the NAFD, this SOUNDS like this COULD be the STORM of STORMS!! Dec. 30th 1967, we had a system blow through here, by 5 Jan. 1968 we had OVER 6 "FEET" of snow on level ground with DRIFTS over 14 FEET in places, needless to say, we were literally SNOWED IN for 8 days until ADOT (Arizona Dept of Trans) brought bulldozers in from Phoenix to clear the roads! As they say, "History DOES repeat itself!"

Dennis :eek:

#5 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Mon Dec 27, 2004 12:08 pm

Good Luck Dennis, I think you may need those bulldozers by late this week.

#6 Postby **Stephanie** » Mon Dec 27, 2004 12:13 pm

I hope you get TONS of snow Dennis! :lol:

azsnowman · #7 Postby **azsnowman** » Mon Dec 27, 2004 12:54 pm

A comforting sight......just saw ADOT with the "BIG PLOWS" at the fuel yard, loading up with fuel, salt and cinders for the road, city plows are also ready, "Could it be, huh, could it BE?!" 8-)

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
800 AM MST MON DEC 27 2004

AZZ004>018-037>040-281400-
BLACK MESA AREA-CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
COCONINO PLATEAU-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-LITTLE COLORADO RVR VLY IN APACHE CO-
LITTLE COLORADO RVR VLY IN COCONINO CO-
LITTLE COLORADO RVR VLY IN NAVAJO CO-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF 264-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS 264 NORTH-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
800 AM MST MON DEC 27 2004

...WIDESPREAD VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS
TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA BY MIDWEEK..

A STRONG AND WET PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ARIZONA ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH EACH
DAY. IN ADDITION...SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN
ADVANCE OF THE STORM AND RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES
AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

BY LATE TUESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA AND SPREADING
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER YAVAPAI..
COCONINO...AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD REACH 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF YAVAPAI AND
GILA COUNTIES AND COULD RESULT IN AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING.

SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 6500-7000 FEET FOOT TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY...LOWERING TO AROUND 6000 FEET
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...HOWEVER
THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AND RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO YOUR FAVORITE WEATHER PROVIDER FOR THE LATEST
FORECAST UPDATES.

azsnowman · #8 Postby **azsnowman** » Mon Dec 27, 2004 3:18 pm

Winds are starting to pick up in a HUGE WAY.....steady @ 19 gusting to 27!!

Dennis 8-)

sertorius · #9 Postby **sertorius** » Tue Dec 28, 2004 12:17 am

Good luck to you sir from Lawrecne, Kansas-I hope you get the moisture as you desp. need it-saty safe!!

JQ Public · #10 Postby **JQ Public** » Tue Dec 28, 2004 12:32 am

Best of luck Dennis! I'm hoping you get the big one. I know y'all are always in need of precip. It'd be nice to see the west on the plus side of the precip margin!

weatherlover427 · #11 Postby **weatherlover427** » Tue Dec 28, 2004 12:33 am

We're getting there.

Unfortunately I am not under any of this coloring. :cry:

azsnowman · #12 Postby **azsnowman** » Tue Dec 28, 2004 5:59 pm

Here's a list of the ALL advisorys that are posted for ME!

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM MST TONIGHT UNTIL 8 PM MST WEDNESDAY NIGHT ABOVE 6500 FEET AZ ZONES 4 AND 6. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM MST TONIGHT UNTIL 8 PM MST WEDNESDAY ABOVE 7000 FEET AZ ZONE 15. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM MST TONIGHT UNTIL 10 PM MST WEDNESDAY ABOVE 7000 FEET AZ ZONE 16. WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MST WEDNESDAY UNTIL 6 PM MST WEDNESDAY AZ ZONES 12...13...14...17...40. FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM MST TONIGHT UNTIL 8 PM MST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AZ ZONES 8...18...37...38.

Dennis :bd:

azsnowman · #13 Postby **azsnowman** » Tue Dec 28, 2004 6:16 pm

The wind is picking up in earnest now, sustained at 24 gusting to OVER 47 MPH, clouds are starting to thicken up.....

Dennis 8-)

azsnowman · #14 Postby **azsnowman** » Wed Dec 29, 2004 8:12 am

"SNOW BUST!" :cry:

Well, what promised to be the STORM of STORMS has been a "Snow BUST" for us.....just COPIOUS amounts of "RAIN", which BTW is OK, however, the rain does almost NOTHING in eliminating the drought long term...we NEED the snowpack but HEY, "Who's complaining?" 8-)

Dennis

Back in the THICK of things!

Back in the THICK of things!

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