Another Arctic Attack looming?

#1 Postby **Portastorm** » Mon Dec 27, 2004 9:21 am

Both Larry Cosgrove (WxAmerica) and Joe Bastardi (Accuwx) suggest in their discussions this morning that another arctic outbreak could be looming for the lower 48 states. This would begin to impact the U.S. on New Years weekend and it is even alluded to in several discussions from Texas weather offices ... and my kudos to those NWS forecasters!

Apparently the Canadian model right now shows the most extreme pattern with the Euro and GFS lagging behind some.

So I guess we all should enjoy the moderation this week before Round Two of winter begins.

I'm curious as to what our S2K forecasters have to say about this ...

aggiecutter · #2 Postby **aggiecutter** » Mon Dec 27, 2004 9:47 am

Bastardi said there was a possible Arctic outbreak looming in a couple weeks. Of course, there's probably, more often than not, an arctic outbreak looming every mid January somewhere in the US.

Miss Mary · #3 Postby **Miss Mary** » Mon Dec 27, 2004 10:03 am

All I know is once it warms up here in Cincy, I want to clear the driveway and sidewalk. Find my xmas lights again (half are working, connections buried beneath snow that has frozen!).

If this is coming, that's what I want to accomplish before the next arctic blast.

Mary

aggiecutter · #4 Postby **aggiecutter** » Mon Dec 27, 2004 10:20 am

I just watched Bastardi's videos. He said the cold shot coming the 5-15 would probably be stronger than the one that we just had in Texas. He went onto to say that he was already warning his private clients in Texas of the impending cold. He seemed to be basing his forcast on the runs of the GFS Ensemble and the forcasted flip of the SOI.

BTW, I'm just passing along what he said, not agreeing or disagreeing with it. I'll leave that to the professional mets. on this site.

WhiteShirt · #5 Postby **WhiteShirt** » Mon Dec 27, 2004 11:48 am

aggiecutter wrote:I just watched Bastardi's videos. He said the cold shot coming the 5-15 would probably be stronger than the one that we just had in Texas. He went onto to say that he was already warning his private clients in Texas of the impending cold. He seemed to be basing his forcast on the runs of the GFS Ensemble and the forcasted flip of the SOI.

BTW, I'm just passing along what he said, not agreeing or disagreeing with it. I'll leave that to the professional mets. on this site.

What does 5-15 mean? And what should we maybe expect down in the Houston area? Will it be as cold as this last one or colder? When is the general timeframe to expect this cold shot? Thanks.

#6 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon Dec 27, 2004 12:37 pm

I haven't seen Bastardi's video's. but the 5-15 is referring to the dates of Jan. 5 through the 15th.

Yankeegirl · #7 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Mon Dec 27, 2004 1:00 pm

Hey! I could go for some more snow! I hope we get some more, keep me updated for possible snow here!

sunny · #8 Postby **sunny** » Mon Dec 27, 2004 1:10 pm

Haven't heard anything here. I just looked at our 7-day forcast, and we are looking at 70's into Sunday.

aggiecutter · #9 Postby **aggiecutter** » Mon Dec 27, 2004 1:29 pm

Just looked at today's Ensembles. "IF" the 5th-11th day maps verify, then we would be looking at a pattern that resembled that of January 78 with the Arctic jet coming down into the central plains and an active southern jet. That would mean the possibility for phasing and major winter storms for the central and southern plains. The operational runs of the GFS are showing a similiar solution day 10 and beyond. Also, the day 10 means of the EURO seem to be trending toward a similiar solution.

GFS Ensemble--checkout 216hrs and beyond

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ ... times.html

I wouldn't pop the champagne cork just, yet. This is still some 10 days away, but atleast it's something to keep an eye on.

cajungal · #10 Postby **cajungal** » Mon Dec 27, 2004 1:31 pm

I have not heard anything either. The forecast calls for a very warm New Years Eve and Day. All the New Years Eves I can remember, it was freezing. The last few years I just been attending parties at my friends homes. Because it was so cold nobody wanted to go out. This New Years Eve my friends and I are going out! To a club in Houma. Bad news is that I got to be at work New Years Day at 9 a.m. So, I know I am going to need to buy Chaser, so I don't feel like crap that morning.

Back to weather, let the warmup begin. The only time I love the cold is when there is a possibility of snow in the forecast here. Otherwise, I hate it! I love the summer way better and being able to go to the beach!

Yankeegirl · #11 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Mon Dec 27, 2004 1:47 pm

Ok.. So how do you read those maps? I know we went from dk brown to tan to orange... what does sthat mean temp wise?

#12 Postby **wx247** » Mon Dec 27, 2004 2:20 pm

Our local NWS mentioned potential artic air coming down somewhere around next Sunday-Monday, including... keeping an eye out for a potential ice storm. For them to mention that possibility this far out is significant, but I think more consistency needs to take shape before I jump on the bandwagon.

yoda · #13 Postby **yoda** » Mon Dec 27, 2004 2:30 pm

Well I would not be looking at the GFS. The ECMWF clearly shows a transient high moving off the East Coast and the Central and Eastern US being nice and warm as a SE ridge reforms (or at least what looks like one) This looks to be for about the next 7-10 days...

#14 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Mon Dec 27, 2004 2:48 pm

EARLY THOUGHTS ON COLD INTRUSION NEXT WEEKEND: IMPRESSIVE UPPER
RIDGE INTO ALASKA - AND RESULTING BUILDUP OF ARCTIC AIR OVER CANADA
IS NOT LIKELY TO BE DENIED IN MIGRATING S INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
DESPITE SW FLOW ALOFT. LEANING TOWARD GOING AT OR BELOW AVAILABLE
TEMP GUIDANCE BY NEXT MON...AS GENERAL TREND OF THE MED-RANGE MODELS
HAS BEEN TO STRENGTHEN THE ARCTIC HIGH IN EACH RUN. 00Z GFS HAS IT
UP TO 1055MB BY MON MORNING. UPPER RIDGE IS A BIT TOO FAR W TO
SUPPORT A FULL-SCALE ARCTIC OUTBREAK INTO THE S PLAINS...SO DO NOT
CURRENTLY ENVISION TEMPS SIMILAR TO LAST WEEK. BUT SHALLOW COLD AIR
BENEATH A LARGE ACTIVE WESTERN TROF COULD SET STAGE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FOR THE CENTRAL/N ROCKIES...AND POSSIBLE ICE
STORM FARTHER E OVER CENTRAL PLAINS AREA.

yoda · #15 Postby **yoda** » Mon Dec 27, 2004 3:05 pm

Hmm.. that was an AFD right? From where?

#16 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Mon Dec 27, 2004 3:13 pm

yoda wrote:Hmm.. that was an AFD right? From where?

NWS NORMAN OK.
DEC 27 11:45am

aggiecutter · #17 Postby **aggiecutter** » Mon Dec 27, 2004 3:32 pm

Yoda, none of this weather is being predicted in the short term, the next 7 days. If this were to occur, it would probably be sometime beyond the 5th of January. It's all just speculation and conjecture at this point, but several of the models are trending that way, including the EURO 10 day means.

EURO 10 day means

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... &cu=latest

#18 Postby **wx247** » Mon Dec 27, 2004 3:39 pm

I am waiting on the AFDs this afternoon to see what others are saying!

#19 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Mon Dec 27, 2004 5:16 pm

wx247 wrote:I am waiting on the AFDs this afternoon to see what others are saying!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
2550 PM CST MON DEC 27 2004

.DISCUSSION...
ARCTIC HIGH STILL PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS...AND LATEST MRF
RUN HAS FROPA ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NO FULL LATITUDE
TROF WITH THIS SYSTEM SO WOULD NOT EXPECT COLD AIR TO HANG AROUND
TOO LONG. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THE MOISTURE SET UP
PLAYS OUT BECAUSE WITH SPLIT FLOW THIS COULD BE A PRECIP PRODUCER.
WE MAY HAVE SOME SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT TO LIFT SOME MOISTURE OVER
THIS COLD DOME.

aggiecutter · #20 Postby **aggiecutter** » Mon Dec 27, 2004 5:27 pm

The CPC has jumped on the return to colder than normal for Texas in its 6-10 and 8-14 day guidance with above normal precip to boot. The last 2/3's of January could be very interesting in North Texas.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/

Another Arctic Attack looming?

Another Arctic Attack looming?

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