Excited about this storm system coming in, and looked at all the models. Put together a forecast, and ill update it tomorrow as well for you all in Southern California. If you would like one of these in your email, and live in Southern California, by all means, put it down, or PM it to me on here. Ill add you to the list!
DISCUSSION ... FOR ALL OF SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ALL OF ORANGE COUNTY ... SOUTHERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY ... WESTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTY ... AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY ...
SYNOPSIS....WINTER STORM WILL BE THE STRONGEST STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS YEAR, AND WILL END 2004 WITH A RECORD STORM.
...SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION...
PRE-STORM FACTS: HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WERE CAUSING 100% OVERCAST SKIES AS PREDICTED. THESE HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN. THEY ARE ONLY SHOWING WHAT IS RIGHT BEHIND IT.
THE RAIN CHANCES WINTER STORM ANALYSIS IS FURTHER SHOWING THE TIMING OF THE RAIN MORE AND MORE PRECISE AS CALCULATION RUN THROUGH. THE RAIN SHOULD START TO FALL ON MONDAY AFTERNOON IN LOS ANGELES, HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS AT FIRST. THE SHOWERS WILL TURN INTO SOLID RAIN, AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ANALYSIS NOW SHOWING THE FRONT CLEARING BY SUNRISE, SO BETWEEN 10PM, AND 2AM, WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE MOST RAINFALL OUT OF THIS FRONT. BY SUNRISE, THE LOWER LEVELS DRY OUT JUST A BIT FROM THE NIGHT BEFORE, SO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR YOUR DRIVE TO WORK IN THE MORNING. THE RAIN WILL STILL BE AROUND, BUT WIDESPREAD, NOT LIKE YOU WILL SEE MONDAY NIGHT, INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE YOUR DRIVE. LOOKS LIKE THE BREAK WILL END, WHEN ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA, TIMING AROUND 2PM ON TUESDAY, AND LASTING INTO THE EVENING. BY AFTER SUNSET, THE RAIN BAND WILL BE TO THE EAST, AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND. THE LOWER LEVELS AFTER 10PM TUESDAY NIGHT DRY A BIT MORE THAN TUESDAY MORNING, SO THE SHOWERS WILL NOT BE AS NUMEROUS. AFTER MIDNIGHT, INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, EXPECT THE RAIN TO FALL ONCE AGAIN AS ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LOWER LEVELS COMPLETELY SATURATED. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE RAIN WILL TURN TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN. SO BY READING THIS, YOU CAN TELL IT WILL BE A DELUGE OF RAIN, THEN A BREAK, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DELUGE, THEN BREAK, AND SO ON. THE BIGGEST BREAK, WHERE WE MIGHT ACTUALLY GET SOME CLEARING SKIES WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AROUND 10PM. FROM 10PM, TO NEAR 2AM THURSDAY MORNING, THE SKIES SHOULD BE DRIER AS A VERY SMALL POCKET OF DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE STORM. AFTER SUNRISE ON THURSDAY, THE LOWER LEVELS BECOME SATURATED ONCE AGAIN FOR MORE RAIN DELUGES. THE ANALYSIS IS SHOWING THAT ALL DAY THURSDAY WILL HAVE RAIN ALL DAY. NOW WITH PREVIOUS RUNS, WE'VE SEEN THIS, AND IT LATER BECOMES CLEAR, IT WILL NOT HAPPEN AS MUCH AS THESE RUNS, SO WE WILL GIVE IT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY, AND GO FROM THERE. ON NEW year's EVE, THE ANALYSIS IS STILL SHOWING SATURATED LOWER LEVELS, UP UNTIL MIDNIGHT, WHEN THE RAIN TURNS INTO SCATTERED SHOWERS, AND THE LOWER LEVELS DRY. STILL INTACT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR NEW year's DAY BEING A DRY OUT DAY AS A POCKET OF DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. DO NOT LET YOUR GUARD DOWN! ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD SLAM INTO US THE NEXT DAY.
THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WINTER STORM WILL YIELD MANY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANALYSIS IS STILL SHOWING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM DYNAMICS EMBEDDED IN THE CIRCULATION. THESE DYNAMICS ARE VERY STRONG, AND EACH ONE WILL HAVE A CHANCE AT PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS. OKAY, HERE WE GO, BY MONDAY EVENING, THE MID LEVELS WILL COOL TO -18C, ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE BY MONDAY NIGHT, INTO TUESDAY MORNING, AND THIS IS WHEN THE DYNAMICS COME TOGETHER. WE HAVE A LOW LEVEL JET OF NEARLY 50KNTS, 700MBVV VALUES ARE NOW UP TO 50 UB/S, 500MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO -20C, ALONG WITH 100% RH AT THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS ALL COMES TOGETHER PERFECT AFTER 10PM ON MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS INGREDIENT SETUP, AND SHOULD BE WATCHED VERY CAREFULLY. ANALYSIS SHOWS THE 700VVMB VALUES DROP AS THE MAIN VALUES SHIFT TO THE EAST BY 4AM, SO ANYWHERE BETWEEN 10PM MONDAY NIGHT, AND 2AM TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FIRST WAVE DYNAMICS. ANALYSIS IS SHOWING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND ALSO THE VERY GOOD CHANCE OF A BOW ECHO. THE BOW ECHO THUNDERSTORM PRODUCES DAMAGING WINDS EXCESS OF 70MPH, AND WE MIGHT ACTUALLY SEE ONE GO BY WITH THIS FRONT. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SLOW DOWN AFTER 2AM TUESDAY MORNING, HOWEVER SOME COLD AIR DEVELOPING WEAK THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL DEVELOP ANYTIME, BUT NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS WHAT WE WILL LIKELY SEE MONDAY NIGHT
THE SECOND WAVE OF TSTORM CHANCES WILL STILL BE STRONG, BUT NOT LIKE WHAT WE WILL SEE WITH THE FIRST ONE. THE SECOND WAVE WILL MOVE BY VERY QUICKLY. THE WAVE WILL MOVE BY BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 10AM AND 4PM ON TUESDAY. IT WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA..
THE THIRD WAVE OF TSTORM CHANCES MOVES IN WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOW THIS WAVE IS ANOTHER VERY DANGEROUS ONE. THE DYNAMICS WILL BE IDENTICAL AS THE FIRST WAVE, AND CLOSER TO THE STORM CENTER, SO THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED VERY CAREFULLY. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY BRING SEVERE WEATHER, AND A FEW BOW ECHOES. IT EXITS THE AREA AFTER ABOUT 8AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AFTER THE THIRD WAVE, THE TSTORM CHANCES DROP SOME. STILL A CHANCE OF COLD AIR WEAK POP UP AND DOWN TSTORMS, BUT NOTHING MAJOR.
WIND CHANCES WINTER STORM WINDS WILL BE VERY STRONG ALONG THE FRONTS IT PRODUCES. AFTER A FRONT, THE WINDS DIE DOWN ALOT, SO EXPECT THIS. ON MONDAY EVENING, THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH. BY MONDAY AFTER 10PM THE WINDS SHOULD BE KICKING IN ALMOST FULL FORCE. SUSTAINED AT 30MPH, WITH HIGHER GUSTS, THE WINDS ALONG THE FIRST DYNAMICS WILL BE GREAT. IF A BOW ECHO DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT, EXPECT THE WINDS TO GUST NEAR 70MPH. THIS WILL QUICKLY DIE DOWN AFTER THE FRONT PASSES EARLY MORNING TUESDAY. DURING THE DAY TUESDAY THE WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH.
THE SECOND WAVE OF WIND DYNAMICS MOVE IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE FIRST WAVE. SUSTAINED WINDS TO 15MPH, WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS WAVE.
THE THIRD WAVE MOVES IN WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE TIMING WITH THE RAIN, AND TSTORM WAVES, LIKE ALL THE OTHER WIND WAVES. THIS ONE WILL LIKELY BE A BIT WEAKER THAN THE FIRST ONE, BUT ALMOST IDENTICAL WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS. THIS WILL END AFTER 8AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MEDIUM RANGE DISCUSSION...THE WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO POUND THE FORECAST AREA ALL WEEK LONG, WHERE LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL FOR THE WEEKEND? NO!! ANOTHER DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AN ASSAULT ON THE AREA AFTER NEW YEARS.
WATCHES AND WARNINGS I WOULD ISSUE, AND HAVE FOR MY FAMILY AND FRIENDS.
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HIGH WIND WARNING
Sunday, December 26, 2004 1:00 PM
A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS: SOUTHEAST LOS ANGELES COUNTY, ORANGE COUNTY, SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY INCLUDING THE MOUNTAIN AREAS, AND ALL OF WESTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTY.
FIRST WAVE WARNING WILL LAST FROM 6PM MONDAY EVENING TO 6AM TUESDAY MORNING.
SUSTAINED TO 30MPH , GUSTS TO 50MPH ALONG THE FRONT, WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 80MPH POSSIBLE IF A BOW ECHO OCCURS.----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECOND WAVE WARNING WILL LAST FROM TUESDAY 10AM TO 4PM.
SUSTAINED TO 15MPH , WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
THIRD WAVE WARNING WILL LAST FROM WEDNESDAY 2AM TO 9AM
SUSTAINED TO 30MPH , GUSTS TO 50MPH ALONG THE FRONT, WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 80MPH POSSIBLE IF A BOW ECHO OCCURS.-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
Sunday, December 26, 2004 1:00 PM
WINTER STORM WILL POUNDED THE FORECAST AREA BADLY, BRINGING RAIN, THUNDERSTORMS, HIGH WINDS, AND FLOODS.
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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
Sunday, December 26, 2004 1:00 PM
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT, INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DYNAMICS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY NIGHT, INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FIRST ROUND WILL BE THE WORST ONE OF THE TWO ROUNDS. DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL, ISOLATED TORNADOES, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE A POSSIBILITY WITH BOTH ROUNDS.
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FLOOD WATCH
Sunday, December 26, 2004 1:00 PM
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL REACH OVER 8 INCHES OR MORE FROM MONDAY TILL FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WATCH WILL END ON NEW YEARS EVE AT 11PM.
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TORNADO WATCH
Sunday, December 26, 2004 1:00 PM
I DONT USUALLY ISSUE THESE WATCHES, BUT WITH THE CURRENT ANALYSIS TRENDING AT THE LOWER LEVELS OF HELICITY BEING NEARING 250, WE WILL INTRODUCE THE CHANCE OF TORNADOES WITH THE FIRST AND SECOND WAVE. AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL NOT BE RULED OUT TO TOUCHDOWN ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WATCH STARTS ON MONDAY NIGHT AROUND 10PM, AND EXTENDS TO TUESDAY EVENING AROUND 6PM
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Tornado Chaser
Southern California Monster Storm Forecast MY OWN FORECAST
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
Excellent Work!!
Keep up the good work...how's the thunderstorm chances looking for the LA County Coast??? It looks like a VERY long week for us!!!
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Brent
- S2K Supporter
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- Contact:
Geez... 
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/ ... &map.y=163
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
400 PM PST SUN DEC 26 2004
CAZ034>041-044>047-051>054-059-087-088-271200-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-CUYAMA VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS-SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-SANTA
YNEZ VALLEY-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL
VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
400 PM PST SUN DEC 26 2004
...A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE CENTRAL COAST AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA MONDAY AND TUESDAY..
A POWERFUL STORM MOVING DOWN THE WEST COAST WILL INTERACT WITH A
LARGE PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND
PRODUCE A MAJOR RAIN AND WIND EVENT FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA.
RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL COAST EARLY MONDAY AND WORK ITS
WAY SOUTHWARD TO LOS ANGELES COUNTY LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY EVEN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SYSTEM PRODUCING PRECIPITAION MANY HOURS EARLIER.
PERIODS OF RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL AFFECT ALL AREAS FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE SOUTH FACING SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS TIME...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
APPEAR VERY POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SOUTH COAST AND MOUNTAINS OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AS WELL AS THE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE BURN AREAS. SEE PRODUCT LAXFFALOX FOR MORE
DETAILS.
THIS WILL BE A VERY WINDY SYSTEM. STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND A
STRONG SURFACE LOW OFF OF THE CENTRAL COAST. WINDS WILL LIKELY
EXCEED 30 MPH IN MANY LOCATIONS AND THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WIND ADVISORIES AND HIGH WIND
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SEE PRODUCT
LAXNPWLOX FOR MORE DETAILS.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH...AT OR ABOVE 6500 FEET...WHILE
THIS WILL LIMIT THE SNOW IMPACT TO ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS. STILL
ABOVE THESE SNOW LEVELS A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA SOURCE FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS MAJOR DEVELOPING STORM.
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/ ... &map.y=163
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
400 PM PST SUN DEC 26 2004
CAZ034>041-044>047-051>054-059-087-088-271200-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-CUYAMA VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS-SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-SANTA
YNEZ VALLEY-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL
VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
400 PM PST SUN DEC 26 2004
...A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE CENTRAL COAST AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA MONDAY AND TUESDAY..
A POWERFUL STORM MOVING DOWN THE WEST COAST WILL INTERACT WITH A
LARGE PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND
PRODUCE A MAJOR RAIN AND WIND EVENT FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA.
RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL COAST EARLY MONDAY AND WORK ITS
WAY SOUTHWARD TO LOS ANGELES COUNTY LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY EVEN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SYSTEM PRODUCING PRECIPITAION MANY HOURS EARLIER.
PERIODS OF RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL AFFECT ALL AREAS FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE SOUTH FACING SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS TIME...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
APPEAR VERY POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SOUTH COAST AND MOUNTAINS OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AS WELL AS THE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE BURN AREAS. SEE PRODUCT LAXFFALOX FOR MORE
DETAILS.
THIS WILL BE A VERY WINDY SYSTEM. STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND A
STRONG SURFACE LOW OFF OF THE CENTRAL COAST. WINDS WILL LIKELY
EXCEED 30 MPH IN MANY LOCATIONS AND THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WIND ADVISORIES AND HIGH WIND
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SEE PRODUCT
LAXNPWLOX FOR MORE DETAILS.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH...AT OR ABOVE 6500 FEET...WHILE
THIS WILL LIMIT THE SNOW IMPACT TO ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS. STILL
ABOVE THESE SNOW LEVELS A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA SOURCE FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS MAJOR DEVELOPING STORM.
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
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#neversummer
2nd System
It looks like in the extended forecast----day 7 to day 8..the GFS has another super cold low in the forecast for us as well....very exciting next ten days....I have to say that the GFS predicted our current storm's intensity from about 8 days out...very impressive.
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Tornado_Chaser2005
Yup, another system after that. Looks like my forecast is dead on so far so good. Aveosmth, your question about LA County area. I know where you live about, we've discussed it before, and Santa Moica area is going to get the worst out of it, tstorm wise, when the 700mbvv of 50 ub/s moves into your area. Im looking at supercell potential, or possibly bow echoes!! I will put out a similar forecast like today for this storm tomorrow in the next 18hrs. We should all haev a storm party at someones house, and have snacks, music, doppler running, etc as we welcome the worst of the storm!! haha.
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Party Time
Yep, that would be something!! Here in Santa Monica, we squeezed out about .02" tonight and I can tell the storm is coming...Tornado, the last time you warned me about a severe t-storm you were on the mark...that cell turned north just at the last second or we would have gotten it really bad....looking for your next update!!
Aveosmth
Aveosmth
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weatherlover427
Re: Party Time
aveosmth wrote:Yep, that would be something!! Here in Santa Monica, we squeezed out about .02" tonight and I can tell the storm is coming...Tornado, the last time you warned me about a severe t-storm you were on the mark...that cell turned north just at the last second or we would have gotten it really bad....looking for your next update!!
Aveosmth
It looks like Ventura is getting rained on pretty decently right now (they have been reporting on and off rain since 6 PM or so).
The San Diego NWS is forecasting some upslope (foothill) areas to receive over NINE INCHES of rain from this system!!
While I will likely end up with at least 3 inches if not more.
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Storm Updates
From the NWS:
TONIGHT SHOULD BE THE SHOW STOPPER AS A 130KT JET MAX MOVES OVER
L.A.ORANGE COUNTY. THIS INFLUX OF JET DYNAMICS WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY LI'S BECOME QUITE NEGITIVE AND JET DYNAMICS
ALSO PEAK OVER L.A. COUNTY IF THIS PANS OUT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
RULE RATHER THAN THE EXCEPTION
The NWS out here is very conservative so it looks like this storm is going to be one to remember out here...its kinda showery right now here in Santa Monica, but I think tonight will be a long night....I just took a peek at the radar and its already an intense storm...if this thing intensifies further....Wow!! I hope people are really keeping an eye on this one, this could be the worst storm in years....
TONIGHT SHOULD BE THE SHOW STOPPER AS A 130KT JET MAX MOVES OVER
L.A.ORANGE COUNTY. THIS INFLUX OF JET DYNAMICS WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY LI'S BECOME QUITE NEGITIVE AND JET DYNAMICS
ALSO PEAK OVER L.A. COUNTY IF THIS PANS OUT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
RULE RATHER THAN THE EXCEPTION
The NWS out here is very conservative so it looks like this storm is going to be one to remember out here...its kinda showery right now here in Santa Monica, but I think tonight will be a long night....I just took a peek at the radar and its already an intense storm...if this thing intensifies further....Wow!! I hope people are really keeping an eye on this one, this could be the worst storm in years....
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NWS really getting on board
This is from the NWS:
HOWEVER, AS THE
WEIGHING STATION JUST UNDER THE GRAPEVINE REPORTED AN 89 MPH GUST
ABOUT AN HOUR AGO...
It looks like the winds will be a huge concern....I'm wondering how strong they will be in LA county...I'm thinking 20-30 w/gusts up to 40-50....
Also from the NWS:
WITH
LIFTED INDICES PROGGED TO DROP TO 0 TO -4 OFF THE COAST OF LA/VTU
COUNTIES. WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...SYNOPTIC INGREDIENTS COMING
TOGETHER FOR CONSIDERABLE EMBEDDED CONVECTION WITH THE FRONTAL BAND
LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...WATERSPOUTS...
AND CANNOT EVEN RULE OUT POSSIBILITY OF SMALL TORNADOES.
Tornado_Chaser, looks like your forecast is on the money...it will be a long 24 hrs for us....also, they are stating that Santa Barbara could get 5 to 6 inches of rain in the next 24 hrs!!!!!!
HOWEVER, AS THE
WEIGHING STATION JUST UNDER THE GRAPEVINE REPORTED AN 89 MPH GUST
ABOUT AN HOUR AGO...
It looks like the winds will be a huge concern....I'm wondering how strong they will be in LA county...I'm thinking 20-30 w/gusts up to 40-50....
Also from the NWS:
WITH
LIFTED INDICES PROGGED TO DROP TO 0 TO -4 OFF THE COAST OF LA/VTU
COUNTIES. WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...SYNOPTIC INGREDIENTS COMING
TOGETHER FOR CONSIDERABLE EMBEDDED CONVECTION WITH THE FRONTAL BAND
LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...WATERSPOUTS...
AND CANNOT EVEN RULE OUT POSSIBILITY OF SMALL TORNADOES.
Tornado_Chaser, looks like your forecast is on the money...it will be a long 24 hrs for us....also, they are stating that Santa Barbara could get 5 to 6 inches of rain in the next 24 hrs!!!!!!
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Tornado_Chaser2005
aveosmth, great news!, Its great to see when a forecast comes together nicely:), I will give you another complete forecast like the ones above in the next couple hrs. Let me gather up all the information first. All and all a supercell chance, and bow echo chance is going to happen tonight into early tuesday morning. aveosmth, you have any instant messengers? If so, PM me on s2k, and ill get your message soon..We will chat real-time during the storm, and ill give latest updates!
Tornado Chaser
Tornado Chaser
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Tornado_Chaser
looking forward to the forecast, and I will PM you this afternoon/evening!!!!
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Tornado_Chaser2005
FINAL FORECAST FOR TONIGHT'S ANALYSIS! SO WHATEVER IS ON THIS FORECAST WILL HAPPEN TONIGHT.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
Monday, December 27, 2004 1:00 PM
DISCUSSION ... FOR ALL OF SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ALL OF ORANGE COUNTY ... SOUTHERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY ... WESTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTY ... AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY ...
SYNOPSIS....WINTER STORM WILL BE THE STRONGEST STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS YEAR, AND WILL END 2004 WITH A RECORD STORM.
...SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION...
PRE-STORM FACTS: STILL DRIER AIR AROUND AT THE LOWER LEVELS, SO DON'T EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS UNTIL THE BIG ONE HITS TONIGHT.
THE RAIN CHANCES WINTER STORM ANALYSIS IS SHOWING THE RAIN ON TARGET FOR THE LAST FEW ANALYSIS RUNS. CALCULATION BRING THE RAIN INTO THE LA BASIN SOMETIME RIGHT BEFORE 8PM, AND INTO THE INLAND EMPIRE BY ABOUT 10PM TONIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM IS A VERY DANGEROUS ONE, SO DO NOT BE A CARELESS DRIVER AND DRIVE OVER 70MPH ON THE FREEWAYS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BETWEEN THE HRS OF 10PM AND 2AM TONIGHT, INTO TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECTING VERY HIGH DOWNPOURS WITH THIS FRONT, WITH FLOODING RAINS, MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS,. AND FOOTHILLS. I AM STILL EXPECTING OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN ON THE COASTAL AREAS, WITH 4-5 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS, AND UP TO 8 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH THIS FRONT ALONE. AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY MORNING THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA, AND THE HEAVY RAIN WILL TURN TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AT MOST. BY TUESDAY EVENING AROUND SUNSET, ANOTHER BATCH OF 100%RH MOISTURE RUNS INTO THE FORECAST AREA, FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN CHANCES. THE RAIN SHOULD BE FALLING ALL NIGHT ON TUESDAY, INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. BY WEDNESDAY SUNSET, A POCKET OF DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA, COVERING EVERYTHING WITH 20-30% RH. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WE MIGHT ACTUALLY HAVE SOME CLEARING SKIES. BY THURSDAY NIGHT, INTO FRIDAY, ANOTHER WINTER STORM WILL STRIKE THE AREA. WE WILL UPDATE YOU ON THIS AFTER WINTER STORM HAS PASSED.
THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WINTER STORM WILL YIELD MANY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANALYSIS IS STILL SHOWING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM DYNAMICS EMBEDDED IN THE CIRCULATION. THESE DYNAMICS ARE VERY STRONG, AND EACH ONE WILL HAVE A CHANCE AT PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FIRST WAVE OF THUNDERSTORM DYNAMICS WILL BE COMING IN WITH THE FRONT. THE INGREDIENTS IN THIS WAVE ARE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. THOSE ARE 850MB WINDS EXCEEDING 45-50KNTS, 500MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -20C, HELICITY TO 250 AT 1KM, 700VVMB AT 40 UB/S, AND 100% MOISTURE ON THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS IS ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, AND EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES. MAINLY ALONG A LINE EXTENDING NORTH TO SOUTH, FROM SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTY, TO THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS. ANYWHERE BETWEEN THERE WILL SEE A VERY BAD CHANCE OF ALL THE INGREDIENTS SHOWING THEIR POWER OFF. SANTA MONICA, THAT MEANS YOU AS WELL. WATERSPOUTS COULD FORM IN THIS FRONT AS WELL, AND ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD TOUCHDOWN ANYWHERE ALONG THAT FORECASTED LINE, WHICH COVERS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. A BOW ECHO THUNDERSTORM WILL LIKELY HAPPEN, AND THIS WILL HAPPEN ALONG THE FRONT BETWEEN 10PM TONIGHT, AND 4AM TOMORROW MORNING. A BOW ECHO THUNDERSTORM CAN PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH, SO BE ON THE ALERT. AFTER SUNRISE THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SLOWS DOWN A BIT IN THE SEVERE STAGE, HOWEVER STILL SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
THE SECOND WAVE WILL BE THE WEAKEST OF THE THREE, HOWEVER PRONGED TO COME IN AFTER AROUND 10AM, AND LASTING TILL AROUND 1PM FOR THE INLAND AREAS, AND COASTAL AREAS TILL AROUND 4PM. THIS WAVE COULD BRING WATERSPOUTS, OR ISOLATED TORNADOES AS WELL, BUT NOTHING MAJOR LIKE WHAT WE WILL SEE WITH THE FIRST ONE.
THE THIRD WAVE COMES IN ON TUESDAY EVENING AROUND SUNSET. ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BULLSEYE DIRECTLY OVER THE ONTARIO, INLAND EMPIRE AREA BY 10PM TUESDAY NIGHT. SO BETWEEN SUNSET TUESDAY EVENING, AND 10PM, WILL BE THE TIME, THE COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE THIS WAVE LIKELY. HOWEVER THIS WAVE IS NOT A FAST MOVER. IT WILL SIT OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ALL NIGHT ON TUESDAY, AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WHERE IT WILL WEAKEN ABOVE OUR HEADS. THE LAST PLACE IT WILL WEAKEN WILL BE THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTS. AFTER IT WEAKENS, THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL GO DOWN CONSIDERABLY, AS NO COLD AIR ALOFT STICKS AROUND.
WIND CHANCES WINTER STORM WINDS WILL BE VERY STRONG ALONG THE FRONTS IT PRODUCES. AFTER A FRONT, THE WINDS DIE DOWN ALOT, SO EXPECT THIS. ON MONDAY EVENING, THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH. BY MONDAY AFTER 10PM THE WINDS SHOULD BE KICKING IN ALMOST FULL FORCE. SUSTAINED AT 30MPH, WITH HIGHER GUSTS, THE WINDS ALONG THE FIRST DYNAMICS WILL BE GREAT. IF A BOW ECHO DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT, EXPECT THE WINDS TO GUST NEAR 70MPH. THIS WILL QUICKLY DIE DOWN AFTER THE FRONT PASSES EARLY MORNING TUESDAY. DURING THE DAY TUESDAY THE WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH.
THE SECOND WAVE OF WIND DYNAMICS MOVE IN TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE FIRST WAVE. SUSTAINED WINDS TO 15MPH, WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS WAVE.
THE THIRD WAVE MOVES IN WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE TIMING WITH THE RAIN, AND TSTORM WAVES, LIKE ALL THE OTHER WIND WAVES. THIS ONE WILL LIKELY BE A BIT WEAKER THAN THE FIRST ONE, BUT ALMOST IDENTICAL WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS. THIS WILL END AFTER 8AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MEDIUM RANGE DISCUSSION...WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO POUND THE FORECAST AREA TILL WEDNESDAY, WHERE ANOTHER WINTER STORM LOOMS ON THE HORIZON FOR THURSDAY NIGHT, INTO NEW YEARS EVE----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HIGH WIND WARNING
Monday, December 27, 2004 1:00 PM
A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS: SOUTHEAST LOS ANGELES COUNTY, ORANGE COUNTY, SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY INCLUDING THE MOUNTAIN AREAS, AND ALL OF WESTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTY.
FIRST WAVE WARNING WILL LAST FROM 6PM MONDAY EVENING TO 6AM TUESDAY MORNING.
SUSTAINED TO 30MPH , GUSTS TO 50MPH ALONG THE FRONT, WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 80MPH POSSIBLE IF A BOW ECHO OCCURS.----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECOND WAVE WARNING WILL LAST FROM TUESDAY 10AM TO 11PM.
SUSTAINED TO 15MPH , WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
THIRD WAVE WARNING WILL LAST FROM WEDNESDAY 2AM TO 9AM
SUSTAINED TO 30MPH , GUSTS TO 50MPH ALONG THE FRONT, WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 80MPH POSSIBLE IF A BOW ECHO OCCURS.-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
Monday, December 27, 2004 1:00 PM
WINTER STORM WILL POUNDED THE FORECAST AREA BADLY, BRINGING RAIN, THUNDERSTORMS, HIGH WINDS, AND FLOODS.
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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
Monday, December 27, 2004 1:00 PM
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT, INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DYNAMICS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY NIGHT, INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FIRST ROUND WILL BE THE WORST ONE OF THE TWO ROUNDS. DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL, ISOLATED TORNADOES, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE A POSSIBILITY WITH BOTH ROUNDS.
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FLOOD WATCH
Monday, December 27, 2004 1:00 PM
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL REACH OVER 8 INCHES OR MORE FROM MONDAY TILL FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WATCH WILL END ON NEW YEARS EVE AT 11PM.
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TORNADO WATCH
Monday, December 27, 2004 1:00 PM
WE DON'T USUALLY ISSUE THESE WATCHES, BUT WITH THE CURRENT ANALYSIS TRENDING AT THE LOWER LEVELS OF HELICITY BEING NEARING 250, WE WILL INTRODUCE THE CHANCE OF TORNADOES WITH THE FIRST AND SECOND WAVE. NOTE ANALYSIS IS SHOWING ISOLATED 2000 CAPES ALONG THE LA COUNTY COASTLINES, AND 1000 ALONG THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTLINES TUESDAY AFTERNOON, SO AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL NOT BE RULED OUT TO TOUCHDOWN ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WATCH STARTS ON MONDAY NIGHT AROUND 10PM, AND EXTENDS TO TUESDAY EVENING AROUND 6PM
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Tornado Chaser
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
Monday, December 27, 2004 1:00 PM
DISCUSSION ... FOR ALL OF SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ALL OF ORANGE COUNTY ... SOUTHERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY ... WESTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTY ... AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY ...
SYNOPSIS....WINTER STORM WILL BE THE STRONGEST STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS YEAR, AND WILL END 2004 WITH A RECORD STORM.
...SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION...
PRE-STORM FACTS: STILL DRIER AIR AROUND AT THE LOWER LEVELS, SO DON'T EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS UNTIL THE BIG ONE HITS TONIGHT.
THE RAIN CHANCES WINTER STORM ANALYSIS IS SHOWING THE RAIN ON TARGET FOR THE LAST FEW ANALYSIS RUNS. CALCULATION BRING THE RAIN INTO THE LA BASIN SOMETIME RIGHT BEFORE 8PM, AND INTO THE INLAND EMPIRE BY ABOUT 10PM TONIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM IS A VERY DANGEROUS ONE, SO DO NOT BE A CARELESS DRIVER AND DRIVE OVER 70MPH ON THE FREEWAYS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BETWEEN THE HRS OF 10PM AND 2AM TONIGHT, INTO TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECTING VERY HIGH DOWNPOURS WITH THIS FRONT, WITH FLOODING RAINS, MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS,. AND FOOTHILLS. I AM STILL EXPECTING OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN ON THE COASTAL AREAS, WITH 4-5 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS, AND UP TO 8 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH THIS FRONT ALONE. AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY MORNING THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA, AND THE HEAVY RAIN WILL TURN TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AT MOST. BY TUESDAY EVENING AROUND SUNSET, ANOTHER BATCH OF 100%RH MOISTURE RUNS INTO THE FORECAST AREA, FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN CHANCES. THE RAIN SHOULD BE FALLING ALL NIGHT ON TUESDAY, INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. BY WEDNESDAY SUNSET, A POCKET OF DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA, COVERING EVERYTHING WITH 20-30% RH. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WE MIGHT ACTUALLY HAVE SOME CLEARING SKIES. BY THURSDAY NIGHT, INTO FRIDAY, ANOTHER WINTER STORM WILL STRIKE THE AREA. WE WILL UPDATE YOU ON THIS AFTER WINTER STORM HAS PASSED.
THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WINTER STORM WILL YIELD MANY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANALYSIS IS STILL SHOWING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM DYNAMICS EMBEDDED IN THE CIRCULATION. THESE DYNAMICS ARE VERY STRONG, AND EACH ONE WILL HAVE A CHANCE AT PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FIRST WAVE OF THUNDERSTORM DYNAMICS WILL BE COMING IN WITH THE FRONT. THE INGREDIENTS IN THIS WAVE ARE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. THOSE ARE 850MB WINDS EXCEEDING 45-50KNTS, 500MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -20C, HELICITY TO 250 AT 1KM, 700VVMB AT 40 UB/S, AND 100% MOISTURE ON THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS IS ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, AND EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES. MAINLY ALONG A LINE EXTENDING NORTH TO SOUTH, FROM SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTY, TO THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS. ANYWHERE BETWEEN THERE WILL SEE A VERY BAD CHANCE OF ALL THE INGREDIENTS SHOWING THEIR POWER OFF. SANTA MONICA, THAT MEANS YOU AS WELL. WATERSPOUTS COULD FORM IN THIS FRONT AS WELL, AND ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD TOUCHDOWN ANYWHERE ALONG THAT FORECASTED LINE, WHICH COVERS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. A BOW ECHO THUNDERSTORM WILL LIKELY HAPPEN, AND THIS WILL HAPPEN ALONG THE FRONT BETWEEN 10PM TONIGHT, AND 4AM TOMORROW MORNING. A BOW ECHO THUNDERSTORM CAN PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH, SO BE ON THE ALERT. AFTER SUNRISE THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SLOWS DOWN A BIT IN THE SEVERE STAGE, HOWEVER STILL SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
THE SECOND WAVE WILL BE THE WEAKEST OF THE THREE, HOWEVER PRONGED TO COME IN AFTER AROUND 10AM, AND LASTING TILL AROUND 1PM FOR THE INLAND AREAS, AND COASTAL AREAS TILL AROUND 4PM. THIS WAVE COULD BRING WATERSPOUTS, OR ISOLATED TORNADOES AS WELL, BUT NOTHING MAJOR LIKE WHAT WE WILL SEE WITH THE FIRST ONE.
THE THIRD WAVE COMES IN ON TUESDAY EVENING AROUND SUNSET. ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BULLSEYE DIRECTLY OVER THE ONTARIO, INLAND EMPIRE AREA BY 10PM TUESDAY NIGHT. SO BETWEEN SUNSET TUESDAY EVENING, AND 10PM, WILL BE THE TIME, THE COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE THIS WAVE LIKELY. HOWEVER THIS WAVE IS NOT A FAST MOVER. IT WILL SIT OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ALL NIGHT ON TUESDAY, AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WHERE IT WILL WEAKEN ABOVE OUR HEADS. THE LAST PLACE IT WILL WEAKEN WILL BE THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTS. AFTER IT WEAKENS, THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL GO DOWN CONSIDERABLY, AS NO COLD AIR ALOFT STICKS AROUND.
WIND CHANCES WINTER STORM WINDS WILL BE VERY STRONG ALONG THE FRONTS IT PRODUCES. AFTER A FRONT, THE WINDS DIE DOWN ALOT, SO EXPECT THIS. ON MONDAY EVENING, THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH. BY MONDAY AFTER 10PM THE WINDS SHOULD BE KICKING IN ALMOST FULL FORCE. SUSTAINED AT 30MPH, WITH HIGHER GUSTS, THE WINDS ALONG THE FIRST DYNAMICS WILL BE GREAT. IF A BOW ECHO DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT, EXPECT THE WINDS TO GUST NEAR 70MPH. THIS WILL QUICKLY DIE DOWN AFTER THE FRONT PASSES EARLY MORNING TUESDAY. DURING THE DAY TUESDAY THE WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH.
THE SECOND WAVE OF WIND DYNAMICS MOVE IN TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE FIRST WAVE. SUSTAINED WINDS TO 15MPH, WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS WAVE.
THE THIRD WAVE MOVES IN WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE TIMING WITH THE RAIN, AND TSTORM WAVES, LIKE ALL THE OTHER WIND WAVES. THIS ONE WILL LIKELY BE A BIT WEAKER THAN THE FIRST ONE, BUT ALMOST IDENTICAL WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS. THIS WILL END AFTER 8AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MEDIUM RANGE DISCUSSION...WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO POUND THE FORECAST AREA TILL WEDNESDAY, WHERE ANOTHER WINTER STORM LOOMS ON THE HORIZON FOR THURSDAY NIGHT, INTO NEW YEARS EVE----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HIGH WIND WARNING
Monday, December 27, 2004 1:00 PM
A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS: SOUTHEAST LOS ANGELES COUNTY, ORANGE COUNTY, SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY INCLUDING THE MOUNTAIN AREAS, AND ALL OF WESTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTY.
FIRST WAVE WARNING WILL LAST FROM 6PM MONDAY EVENING TO 6AM TUESDAY MORNING.
SUSTAINED TO 30MPH , GUSTS TO 50MPH ALONG THE FRONT, WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 80MPH POSSIBLE IF A BOW ECHO OCCURS.----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECOND WAVE WARNING WILL LAST FROM TUESDAY 10AM TO 11PM.
SUSTAINED TO 15MPH , WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
THIRD WAVE WARNING WILL LAST FROM WEDNESDAY 2AM TO 9AM
SUSTAINED TO 30MPH , GUSTS TO 50MPH ALONG THE FRONT, WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 80MPH POSSIBLE IF A BOW ECHO OCCURS.-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
Monday, December 27, 2004 1:00 PM
WINTER STORM WILL POUNDED THE FORECAST AREA BADLY, BRINGING RAIN, THUNDERSTORMS, HIGH WINDS, AND FLOODS.
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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
Monday, December 27, 2004 1:00 PM
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT, INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DYNAMICS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY NIGHT, INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FIRST ROUND WILL BE THE WORST ONE OF THE TWO ROUNDS. DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL, ISOLATED TORNADOES, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE A POSSIBILITY WITH BOTH ROUNDS.
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FLOOD WATCH
Monday, December 27, 2004 1:00 PM
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL REACH OVER 8 INCHES OR MORE FROM MONDAY TILL FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WATCH WILL END ON NEW YEARS EVE AT 11PM.
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TORNADO WATCH
Monday, December 27, 2004 1:00 PM
WE DON'T USUALLY ISSUE THESE WATCHES, BUT WITH THE CURRENT ANALYSIS TRENDING AT THE LOWER LEVELS OF HELICITY BEING NEARING 250, WE WILL INTRODUCE THE CHANCE OF TORNADOES WITH THE FIRST AND SECOND WAVE. NOTE ANALYSIS IS SHOWING ISOLATED 2000 CAPES ALONG THE LA COUNTY COASTLINES, AND 1000 ALONG THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTLINES TUESDAY AFTERNOON, SO AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL NOT BE RULED OUT TO TOUCHDOWN ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WATCH STARTS ON MONDAY NIGHT AROUND 10PM, AND EXTENDS TO TUESDAY EVENING AROUND 6PM
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Tornado Chaser
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Excellent Work
Were in for one exciting night...I have someone who's leaving tonight at 10pm from LAX...I wonder if they are going to make it....
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weatherlover427
Winds here in Costa Mesa are already gusting 20-25 MPH or so, we have a wind advisory out for some gusts that may near 50 MPH at times from the south and southeast. We also have a flood watch out because some areas may see 2-4 inches of rain in the coastal areas and up to 10 inches in the foothills.
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WOW!!!!!!!!!
Read this from the NWS....this is probably the most intense discussion in 3 years:
.SHORT TERM...
STRONG UPPER LOW SPINNING NEAR 36N/130W IS FORECASTED TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...FUNNELING CONSIDERABLE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT DOPPLER RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWING A BAND OF STEADY RAIN ACROSS SAN LUIS OBISPO...
SANTA BARBARA...AND VENTURA COUNTIES. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
THIS AFTERNOON HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS
AND SOUTH COAST...WHERE RATES BETWEEN TWO AND FOUR TENTHS OF AN
INCH PER HOUR HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. A FLOOD ADVISORY HAS ALREADY
BEEN POSTED FOR THIS AREA...WITH RAINFALL RATES EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
VANDENBERG VAD WIND SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE WIND FLOW STRUCTURE...WITH
SSE WINDS 50 TO 60 KNOTS BETWEEN 3000 AND 10000 FEET. STRONG JET DYNAMICS
ARE EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THIS RAIN BAND ACROSS SBA COUNTY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE RAIN BAND OVER SBA COUNTY
IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY SLOW MOVING...THEREBY INCREASING THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SBA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH COAST THROUGH 9 AM TUESDAY...WITH THE GAVIOTA
BURN AREA BEING OF SPECIAL CONCERN. WOULD EXPECT THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS
WITH THIS EVENT TO OCCUR ACROSS THESE AREAS...WITH UP TO TWELVE INCHES
POSSIBLE ACROSS FAVORED SOUTH SLOPES OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE...AND
AROUND 5 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS CITY OF SANTA BARBARA. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINS FOCUSED ACROSS THESE AREAS
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLASH FLOOD
WATCH PRODUCT (LAXFFALOX) FOR THE LATEST ON THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.
LATEST 12Z MESO-ETA SOLUTION CONTINUING TO PROG VERY STRONG JET
DYNAMICS WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXTENDING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOWING VERY IMPRESSIVE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND OROGRAPHIC WIND
SUPPORT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD FROM THE LA BASIN TO POINT CONCEPTION
AREA. THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL HELP TO BRING WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN TO THE FORECAST. AT THE SAME TIME...ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO DESTABILIZE...
WITH LIFTED INDICES PROGGED TO DROP TO 0 TO -3 OFF THE COAST OF LA/VTU
COUNTIES. ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER STABILIZE DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...WITH THE 18Z MESO-ETA NOW PROJECTING A LIFTED INDEX BULLSEYE
OF -5 NEAR POINT MUGU...ALONG WITH CAPE VALUES OVER 1000. WITH ALL OF
THIS IN MIND...SYNOPTIC INGREDIENTS AND STABILITY PARAMETERS COMING
TOGETHER FOR CONSIDERABLE EMBEDDED CONVECTION WITH THE FRONTAL BAND...
AS WELL AS POST FRONTAL CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL
HAIL...WATERSPOUTS...AND CANNOT EVEN RULE OUT POSSIBILITY OF SMALL
TORNADOES. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (LAXSPSLOX) IS IN EFFECT TO
DISCUSS THE CONVECTIVE THREATS.
OTHER MAJOR CONCERN WITH THIS EVENT CONTINUES TO BE STRONG WINDS.
WIND ADVISORIES ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SLO...SBA...VENTURA
COUNTIES...AND WILL ADD LA COUNTY WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
HAVE ALREADY HAD NUMEROUS WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ACROSS
SLO/SBA COUNTIES TODAY. EVEN STRONGER WINDS HAVE BEEN DETECTED
OFF THE CENTRAL COAST...WITH A COUPLE OF BUOYS REPORTED WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS. THE VERY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
INTO THE INNER COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...
WHERE A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS IN THE INNER WATERS AS WELL! THE
STRONGEST WINDS WITH THIS EVENT ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF SANTA BARBARA...VENTURA...AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES
(INCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE)...WHERE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
OVER 70 MPH WILL BE LIKELY. A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF SBA COUNTY...WHILE THE WARNING FOR LA/VTU COUNTY
MOUNTAINS HAS BEEN CONVERTED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. IN ADDITION
TO THE VERY STRONG WIND POTENTIAL...HEAVY SNOW COULD FALL AT RESORT
LEVELS ABOVE 7000 FEET TONIGHT. OTHER CONCERN IS THAT LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT SOME COLDER AIR ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SLOPES...SO SNOW LEVELS IN THESE AREAS COULD EASILY BE 6000 FEET OR
LOWER. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 5000 FEET TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD BE A MAJOR SNOW PRODUCER FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE
7000 FEET...WHERE 2 TO 3 FEET OF NEW SNOW COULD AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS.
LATEST 18Z MESO ETA NOW TRENDING MORE TOWARDS THE GFS FOR THE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD...NOW CARRYING A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SECONDARY WAVE OF ENERGY INTO THE AREA. IN ADDITION TO
FAIRLY GOOD UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...BOTH MODELS NOW INDICATING A
WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COASTAL WATERS. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...
LONG TERM GFS STILL INDICATING A BROAD AND MOIST ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS MUCH OF CALIFORNIA DURING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE INDIVIDUAL
IMPULSES WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME...SO WILL KEEP A THREAT OF RAIN
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH BEST CHANCES NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION.
.SHORT TERM...
STRONG UPPER LOW SPINNING NEAR 36N/130W IS FORECASTED TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...FUNNELING CONSIDERABLE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT DOPPLER RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWING A BAND OF STEADY RAIN ACROSS SAN LUIS OBISPO...
SANTA BARBARA...AND VENTURA COUNTIES. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
THIS AFTERNOON HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS
AND SOUTH COAST...WHERE RATES BETWEEN TWO AND FOUR TENTHS OF AN
INCH PER HOUR HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. A FLOOD ADVISORY HAS ALREADY
BEEN POSTED FOR THIS AREA...WITH RAINFALL RATES EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
VANDENBERG VAD WIND SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE WIND FLOW STRUCTURE...WITH
SSE WINDS 50 TO 60 KNOTS BETWEEN 3000 AND 10000 FEET. STRONG JET DYNAMICS
ARE EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THIS RAIN BAND ACROSS SBA COUNTY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE RAIN BAND OVER SBA COUNTY
IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY SLOW MOVING...THEREBY INCREASING THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SBA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH COAST THROUGH 9 AM TUESDAY...WITH THE GAVIOTA
BURN AREA BEING OF SPECIAL CONCERN. WOULD EXPECT THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS
WITH THIS EVENT TO OCCUR ACROSS THESE AREAS...WITH UP TO TWELVE INCHES
POSSIBLE ACROSS FAVORED SOUTH SLOPES OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE...AND
AROUND 5 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS CITY OF SANTA BARBARA. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINS FOCUSED ACROSS THESE AREAS
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLASH FLOOD
WATCH PRODUCT (LAXFFALOX) FOR THE LATEST ON THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.
LATEST 12Z MESO-ETA SOLUTION CONTINUING TO PROG VERY STRONG JET
DYNAMICS WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXTENDING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOWING VERY IMPRESSIVE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND OROGRAPHIC WIND
SUPPORT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD FROM THE LA BASIN TO POINT CONCEPTION
AREA. THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL HELP TO BRING WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN TO THE FORECAST. AT THE SAME TIME...ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO DESTABILIZE...
WITH LIFTED INDICES PROGGED TO DROP TO 0 TO -3 OFF THE COAST OF LA/VTU
COUNTIES. ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER STABILIZE DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...WITH THE 18Z MESO-ETA NOW PROJECTING A LIFTED INDEX BULLSEYE
OF -5 NEAR POINT MUGU...ALONG WITH CAPE VALUES OVER 1000. WITH ALL OF
THIS IN MIND...SYNOPTIC INGREDIENTS AND STABILITY PARAMETERS COMING
TOGETHER FOR CONSIDERABLE EMBEDDED CONVECTION WITH THE FRONTAL BAND...
AS WELL AS POST FRONTAL CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL
HAIL...WATERSPOUTS...AND CANNOT EVEN RULE OUT POSSIBILITY OF SMALL
TORNADOES. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (LAXSPSLOX) IS IN EFFECT TO
DISCUSS THE CONVECTIVE THREATS.
OTHER MAJOR CONCERN WITH THIS EVENT CONTINUES TO BE STRONG WINDS.
WIND ADVISORIES ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SLO...SBA...VENTURA
COUNTIES...AND WILL ADD LA COUNTY WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
HAVE ALREADY HAD NUMEROUS WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ACROSS
SLO/SBA COUNTIES TODAY. EVEN STRONGER WINDS HAVE BEEN DETECTED
OFF THE CENTRAL COAST...WITH A COUPLE OF BUOYS REPORTED WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS. THE VERY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
INTO THE INNER COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...
WHERE A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS IN THE INNER WATERS AS WELL! THE
STRONGEST WINDS WITH THIS EVENT ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF SANTA BARBARA...VENTURA...AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES
(INCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE)...WHERE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
OVER 70 MPH WILL BE LIKELY. A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF SBA COUNTY...WHILE THE WARNING FOR LA/VTU COUNTY
MOUNTAINS HAS BEEN CONVERTED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. IN ADDITION
TO THE VERY STRONG WIND POTENTIAL...HEAVY SNOW COULD FALL AT RESORT
LEVELS ABOVE 7000 FEET TONIGHT. OTHER CONCERN IS THAT LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT SOME COLDER AIR ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SLOPES...SO SNOW LEVELS IN THESE AREAS COULD EASILY BE 6000 FEET OR
LOWER. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 5000 FEET TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD BE A MAJOR SNOW PRODUCER FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE
7000 FEET...WHERE 2 TO 3 FEET OF NEW SNOW COULD AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS.
LATEST 18Z MESO ETA NOW TRENDING MORE TOWARDS THE GFS FOR THE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD...NOW CARRYING A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SECONDARY WAVE OF ENERGY INTO THE AREA. IN ADDITION TO
FAIRLY GOOD UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...BOTH MODELS NOW INDICATING A
WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COASTAL WATERS. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...
LONG TERM GFS STILL INDICATING A BROAD AND MOIST ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS MUCH OF CALIFORNIA DURING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE INDIVIDUAL
IMPULSES WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME...SO WILL KEEP A THREAT OF RAIN
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH BEST CHANCES NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION.
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weatherlover427
Check out these 3 PM observations from the central coast!!!
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
SAN SIMEON N/A 54 52 93 SE48G59 29.67S
SAN LUIS OBISP CLOUDY 55 45 68 SE18G30 29.72F
SANTA MARIA LGT RAIN 54 45 71 SE25G36 29.72F
LOMPOC CLOUDY 52 43 71 SE26G46 29.72F
SOLVANG N/A 52 48 87 SE7G22 29.84S
SANTA BARBARA LGT RAIN 53 51 93 E10 29.84S FOG
That's the type of stuff that's headed down here later tonight and tomorrow...
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
SAN SIMEON N/A 54 52 93 SE48G59 29.67S
SAN LUIS OBISP CLOUDY 55 45 68 SE18G30 29.72F
SANTA MARIA LGT RAIN 54 45 71 SE25G36 29.72F
LOMPOC CLOUDY 52 43 71 SE26G46 29.72F
SOLVANG N/A 52 48 87 SE7G22 29.84S
SANTA BARBARA LGT RAIN 53 51 93 E10 29.84S FOG
That's the type of stuff that's headed down here later tonight and tomorrow...
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Winds
Wow, Hearst Castle is getting blown away!!!! Were at 14 gusting to 25 already and on the outer fringes of the front....they are talking about 40 to 50 knots on the inner coastal waters...thats crazy!!!! Its gonna be a long night!!
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Tornado_Chaser2005
Forecast seems on track, and intensity finally is being realized by the NWS offices, when I posted the intensity warning days in advance, lol./...Anyway, enough bashng how slow the NWS is. Aveosmth, you me and joshua, will talk real-time tonight if you want. If you have MSN, I urge you both to get it if not...We can all 3 talk real-time, and anyone else in the LA Basin, or Southern California tonight!
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