Another Low with potential?

#1 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Dec 27, 2004 1:31 pm

Another extratropical low has developed in the Central Atlantic but this one is very close to the tropics and according to the NHC it will be moving toward the SW! Weird right? The low is centered at 23N 47W, where as you can see, the water temperature is quite warm. A cold front is approaching from the west which could limit the time the low has if it wants to turn to the tropical or subtropical side. Even if nothing happens, it continues to be interesting.

#2 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Dec 27, 2004 2:01 pm

SOME SYSTEMS IN JANUARY:

[img]ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/storm_archives/atlantic/prelimat/atl1978/subtrop/prelim01.gif[/img]

The official document looks very blurry and hard to read.

yoda · #3 Postby **yoda** » Mon Dec 27, 2004 2:32 pm

I can read that document easily.. so if you want me to tell you what it says, just say so. This looks to be interesting, but IMO it probably will be just a big ocean low...

#4 Postby **msbee** » Mon Dec 27, 2004 4:17 pm

darn!
that thing looks like it came right over St. Maarten!

#5 Postby **george_r_1961** » Mon Dec 27, 2004 6:37 pm

Favorable SST's,and its possibly moving into a low shear environment if it moves far enough south. Something to watch, but nothing to get overly worried about.

AL Chili Pepper · #6 Postby **AL Chili Pepper** » Mon Dec 27, 2004 6:48 pm

Now wouldn't that ice the cake on 2004? What a year.

My prediction, hurricane within 48 hours. Subtropical at 96 hours approaching Miami. Record cold wave in Florida. Blizzard conditions Fort Lauderdale on day 5.

DoctorHurricane2003 · #7 Postby **DoctorHurricane2003** » Mon Dec 27, 2004 7:03 pm

I really hope you're joking
:roll:

#8 Postby **george_r_1961** » Mon Dec 27, 2004 7:05 pm

No chance of it making it that far west.

#9 Postby **MGC** » Mon Dec 27, 2004 7:53 pm

I was looking at this system this morning. It still has a way to go before becoming ST. It bears watching.....MGC

Hyperstorm · #10 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Mon Dec 27, 2004 8:43 pm

Based on some quick satellite observations, the system appears to have an even tigher core than yesterday and it appears to have acquired a few tropical characteristics (tighter core/slowly detaching from troughiness/moderate convection on east side). Of course, this contrasts with the extratropical characteristics it mostly possesses (large windfield/still attached with trough/cold core). The longer it sits over those relatively warmer waters (causing convection to build up) the closer it will be to transition.

The main inhibiting factor for this cold core low to quickly transition is climatology, which means a strong jet of shear just about everywhere in the Atlantic. Just to find perfect conditions will be a virtually impossible task, however, there is not enough shear to completely destroy it as of now. If it can maintain that southern latitude, it could remain over slightly more favorable waters and have additional development. I'll watch out for that.

Nothing to get excited about just yet, but we could have a system that can rival 1955's Alicia in being a cyclone in 2 different years. Of course, if this indeed exhibits characteristics, it will all come down to NHC pressing the green button.

I can't believe it's been a month since we had the same kind of setup...

#11 Postby **Hurricanehink** » Mon Dec 27, 2004 9:25 pm

Yep, almost exactly a month. I wonder when the invest will go up, if ever?

HurricaneBill · #12 Postby **HurricaneBill** » Mon Dec 27, 2004 11:15 pm

Isn't there some areas in the Atlantic that have SSTs that are warm enough to support TC development year-round?

#13 Postby **george_r_1961** » Mon Dec 27, 2004 11:19 pm

HurricaneBill wrote:Isn't there some areas in the Atlantic that have SSTs that are warm enough to support TC development year-round?

Probably yes. However stong shear would in most cases preclude any type of tropical development. However tropical cyclone development in the off season is not entirely out of the question..as we are all watching a system now that has some potential :eek:

#14 Postby **Hurricanehink** » Tue Dec 28, 2004 9:52 am

Aww, the main low lost its convection. Any chance of reformation to the blob to the east of the circulation?

Hyperstorm · #15 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Tue Dec 28, 2004 5:51 pm

Update:

It appears that dry air has killed this low's potential, even though it has a beautiful circulation. Convection has not occured for the past 24 hours and the chances of transition now are much lower than the past few days...basically zero. All of this really isn't surprising, since this is, of course, expected this time of year.

To the east we have yet another surface trough (it's basically linear, although it wants to develop its own identity) with some potential (unusually far to the south over relatively warmer waters) if it can tighten that core and develop a good cyclonic circulation.

Climatology continues to rule...

EWRC · #16 Postby **EWRC** » Tue Dec 28, 2004 10:52 pm

I dont see the big fuss about the offseason storms. During the 70s 80s there were alot of May storm. Although the storm that hit the DR back in May this year was a tropical storm I think as well as the one in May of 2002 was also a tropical storm I think. Also the 1950s and earlier also saw storms in December and a couple in the winter months. Not only that there are more satellites today, and other ways to monitor the tropics that were not avalible back during the 1920s, 30s,40s. Alot of storms were not even counted in my opinion or counted twice.

#17 Postby **Hurricanehink** » Wed Dec 29, 2004 11:02 am

Aww, it's over

No Paula this year.

Another Low with potential?

Another Low with potential?

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