Dec 30 - 31 Midwest System

[NWIASpotter]

The next system that is forecasted to come through the midwest should come thur/fri. A low pressure system should come out of the rockies along the SD/NE border and move to the East. Thur morning the low should be around O'Neil, NE, with most precip being along the NE/SD border, and then throughout all of IA. Most of this precip should be rain at this time, with some frozen precip possible over the black hills of SD. By thur afternoon this low should be centered around the FSD area, with the precip bands spreading out over a lot of the upper midwest. From the black hills, eastward to the MSP area. Much of WI and MI, as well as northern IN/IL, eastern IA, then south through central MO/OK/AR and as far south as TX should be able to see some precip from this system. Drawing a line east and then south of the low pressure over FSD, anywhere to the north or west of that line should have the best chance of frozen precip at this time in the afternoon. The only moderate areas of snow should be over parts of N WI and then N MN, as well as W SD. A large area of possible freezing rain may be in place over central MN, especially the MSP area.

By thur night, the low shall be the MSP area, with there being two main bands of precip. One heading west from the low, including much of SD/MN and extreme SE ND. Another area of precip will include all of WI/MI southward including IL/MO/AR, as well as parts of IA/IN. SD/MN/ND should be seeing a mostly snow, or possible freezing rain at this time. While much of the other precip falling as rain over the rest of the midwest.

The low should then take more of an NE direction and head over WI/MI. Rain should continue with the southern band as it heads east, while snow will still be possible over mostly N MN. This band looks to stay stationary until it falls apart later on friday morning. Total accumulations of snow, or ice in some cases is way to hard to tell at this point. But, the northern band of precip is definatly something to watch out for because any slight changes in temps or if it this area of precip can drop further south could cause more of an ice event to occur over parts of the northern plains.

[sertorius]

Great discussion-I have been watching this for Eastern Kansas-this is really a spring like set up and there is a chance we could have some t-storms around the Lawrence/Kansas City, MO. Area with this system-a low tracking that North, is very typical of April storms-could be interesting here Wed. and Thursday-I do hope it rains-we have gone 3 weeks w/out a trace!!

[wx247]

Great discussion-I have been watching this for Eastern Kansas-this is really a spring like set up and there is a chance we could have some t-storms around the Lawrence/Kansas City, MO. Area with this system-a low tracking that North, is very typical of April storms-could be interesting here Wed. and Thursday-I do hope it rains-we have gone 3 weeks w/out a trace!!

Yeah, I know what you mean. It is dry here, too.

Be watching early next week... I think winter wx. will be back in view.

[sertorius]

wx247:

I think winter will come back next week-the EURO is depicting a huge High Pressure system comming out of Canada-progged at 1054-1055-the discussions of our NWS is what will win out-the cold air or the the SW flow being pumped by the storms in California-that is why they are depicitng ice strom chances next week-seeping arctic air with very warm air aloft-to be honest, if the moisture plum depicted by the GFS comes thru for next week, my area could be looking at an ice storm similar to the devestating one of 2002-we shall see-whatever the case, next week bears watching-as does this Thursday for storms-and yea-we need rain bad-3 weeks w/out a drop!!!

[NWIASpotter]

Thanks Sertorius...

As for myself, we are looking most likely rain this week, but next week is looking like a return of winter with chance of snow for Sunday through at least Monday.

[wx247]

Hey Sertorius... I live in Sedalia, MO during that nightmare. We lost power only once briefly... for about 15- 45 minutes, but much of the town was without power for days. I remember watching KCTV5 operating on a generator and in their offices because the newsroom was too dark. That storm was horrendous!

[NWIASpotter]

Since we are speaking of that storm, I have some great pictures of the ice up here. We recieved 1/2 to an inch of ice with that storm. If I can get them scanned somewhere, I will post them for you guys. We lost power off and on for about 24 hours, at least it was on enough so it didn't get too cold. I'm getting them scanned and should have em by this afternoon!!

[NWIASpotter]

An model update, the latest models show that the low may push a little further to the north and may weaken. Thur morning looks to have the main band of precip over the SD/ND border, S MN, and down including most of IA/WI, parts of IL/MO. The rain/snow line looks to be around just north of Madison, WI, to MSP, over to Aberdeen and then south toward O'Neil, NE. At this point, that may be more ice then snow with unsettled temps throughout the atmosphere. THe low deepens throughout the afternoon, and picks up some strengnth. Large areas of precip should come into play over ND/SD and N MN, WI, MI/IL/MO. These main areas of precip should be mostly snow, ND/SD, N MN, and N WI, along with MI will have the possibility of some large snow amounts. Predicted precip amounts could reach around .4 inches of rain. The rest of the ohio valley and southern plains should see rain only throughout the system with temps being above 50.

[sertorius]

That was one heck of an ice storm-we were w/out power for 7 days-I lived in Brookeside about 2 miles south of the Plaza in KC at the time-we hooked an outlet to our boiler and ran it off a generator-driving on WED. night was crazy-tree limbs were falling everywhere and you had to dodge them-the roads never did freeze as the temp. was right at 32 the whole time-we were lucky it never got windy or cold after that or it could have been much worse!! My 5 year old was almost 3 at the time and he still talks about it today!! Next week does look interesting-the GFS and MRF are showing some real good winter waether for this area next week-only reason I give it creedence is that it has had this fro about 5 days now. The EURO however is not so much on board and has weakened the high out of Canada-who knows-it does give us something to discuss which is more than I have had for the whole month of December-what a bore this month has been!!! I don't know how long it will last-the GFS still showing massive warm up by the 12th of Jan. The next few days should tell us something-we have miised so much the past two weeks that maybe next week we will play catch up-Have to watch the arctic air-if it is shallow, another ice storm for this any ways is not out of the question!!!

[yoda]

True... but the EC always does better than the GFS in the MR/LR MOST of the time...

[sertorius]

Yoda:

Very true-If I had to make a forcast or place a bet, I'd def. follow the trend of the EURO or maybe mix them a bit-By Friday we should have a better look for this area as we can begin to track the arctic air and see if it is indeed moving or if the SW flow will continue to overwhelm the pattern here.

[yoda]

Yoda:

Very true-If I had to make a forcast or place a bet, I'd def. follow the trend of the EURO or maybe mix them a bit-By Friday we should have a better look for this area as we can begin to track the arctic air and see if it is indeed moving or if the SW flow will continue to overwhelm the pattern here.

Sorry if I came across harsh there... I was just merely trying to point something out...

Anyway, you are correct.

[NWIASpotter]

I have those ice pictures from that storm, where is the best place I should put them??

[sertorius]

Yoda:

Not at all-you didn't come across harsh one bit-the EURO is a much better model than the GFS and to be honest just watching the weather is prob. even better esp. 24 hours prior to thew event. This past November is a great example-models and forcast was calling for a few flurries with showers after 3:00 A.M. 8 hrs before the event-by 3:00 that afternoon temps. had dropped and it started to rain-by 6:00 we had heavy snow-wound up with 8 inches-last real precip. we've had here. Next week does look more interesting as far as winter weather for us-of course, by the next run of the GFS it could all be different!!

[simplykristi]

Possible ice storm next week for KC???

Kristi

[NWIASpotter]

Yes, that is one of the big discussions...

[simplykristi]

Katie Horner on KCTV5 has been talking about snow next week.

Kristi

[wx247]

Katie Horner on KCTV5 has been talking about snow next week.

Kristi

Hey Kristi... glad to see you posting. It does look like there is potential for some sort of wintery mess in the KC metro within the next 7-10 days. Katie is very bright... keep us posted on what she is saying.

[sertorius]

simplykristi:

I think it def. needs to be watched-too early for any details accept that we are going to be much more seasonal next week and beyond-seems like we may hit a 1-2 week period of winter-which is about all we can get at one time. Again, I'm just a Latin teacher so listen to Katie-she's one of the best mets in KC if you ask me-I still like Mike Thompson but he was burned so many times early on and his strength is summer and spring t-storms. Gary Lesak is just fun to watch-the only met who likes to forcast snow so he is great (accept when he gave Lawrence the all clear and 5 min. later the tornado went one mile from my house!!!!) Next week is def. worth watching as of now!!!

[simplykristi]

You teach Latin? Where at? I took Latin in high school and college (went to KU). Latin was one of my favorite subjects.

Katie has the best coverage when it comes to storms! I am not fond of Mike Thompson at all. Gary Lezak can hit the forecast most of the time. He's my favorite next to Katie.

Kristi