Winter Forecast for North Texas

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AggieSpirit
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#101 Postby AggieSpirit » Wed Dec 15, 2004 8:36 pm

Just to let you all know, the Texas Department of Transportation DOES have some trucks rigged up like that. They clear snow with the plow style rig in front and spit out sand on the backside. How do I know this? My mom works for the department.

Most of these trucks are out west and in the panhandle, but, if a major winter weather event occurs further east in our area, TxDOT WILL and DOES call them in.
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#102 Postby CaptinCrunch » Fri Dec 17, 2004 9:26 am

.DISCUSSION...
LOW-LEVEL COOLING WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEPER RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...HAS ALLOWED AN AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS/DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING. SEVERAL REPORTS OF VSBYS
LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF A MILE HAVE FORCED THE ISSUANCE OF A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR THIS REGION. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY
MID-MORNING...AS STRONGER MIXING OCCURS. OTHERWISE...A PLEASANT DAY
IS IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS...WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHEAST...TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE WEST AND
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
BRINGING A PREFRONTAL TROUGH/WINDSHIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY
MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER. COLD ADVECTION WILL LAG THE WINDSHIFT BY SEVERAL HOURS...WITH
COOLER WEATHER TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IN LINE
WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WE HAVE WARMED TEMPERATURES FURTHER ON
SUNDAY...AS THE DEEPEST PORTION OF THE COLD AIR MASS SLIDES WELL TO
THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A RAPID WARMING TREND BEGINS BY MONDAY MORNING...AS STRONG SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...IN RESPONSE TO A
POWERFUL UPPER VORT MAX DIGGING SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. IN THE
MEANTIME...LARGE SCALE AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER RIDGING ALONG THE
WESTERN COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND INTO ALASKA WILL PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE SOUTHWARD SURGE OF AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS. MEDIUM RANGE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS AMPLIFIED PATTERN...AND IS ALSO
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH
A DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...BUT WILL NEED TO ADVANCE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY ONE
DAY...WITH GUIDANCE IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLDER WEATHER WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
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#103 Postby CaptinCrunch » Fri Dec 17, 2004 12:58 pm

Maybe a few snow flurries on thureday for N.TX

Image

Image
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#104 Postby CaptinCrunch » Fri Dec 17, 2004 3:37 pm

OTHER THAN HIGH CLOUDS FOR FIRST PART OF TODAY AND AGAIN THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WEATHER WILL BE RATHER NICE FOR DECEMBER. STILL
UNCERTAINTIES ON AMOUNT OF COLD AIR THAT WILL WORK INTO FA ON
SUNDAY. APPEARS THAT COLDEST AIR WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND EAST BUT
WILL STILL PROVIDE FOR DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR TEMPS ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. FOR NOW WILL GENERALLY STAY WITH GOING FORECAST.

NEXT SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE AROUND MID WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF
MORE IN LINE WITH COLDER AIR WORKING INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE LOWERED TEMPS DOWN ABOUT 8-10 DEGREES AND
THIS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH. MODELS ALSO FORECAST WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS. WOULD IMAGINE ANY
PRECIP WITH SUCH A SYSTEM WOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. HOWEVER IT
MAY ALSO COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
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#105 Postby gboudx » Sat Dec 18, 2004 7:13 pm

This afternoons discussion and forecast is calling for a small possibility of freezing drizzle and/or snow on Wed pm/Thurs am.
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#106 Postby CaptinCrunch » Mon Dec 20, 2004 8:17 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
400 PM CST MON DEC 20 2004


SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY BE MIXED WITH RAIN WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-20. SOME FLURRIES ALSO POSSIBLE. LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. WITH WARM GROUND...TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BE
UNIMPEDED...EVEN ALONG THE RED RIVER WHERE SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY OCCUR.

SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ZIP THROUGH N TEXAS/S OKLAHOMA LATE WEDNESDAY.
GFS GENERATING SIGNIFICANT SNOW N ZONES. PERFECT PROG ISENTROPIC
CHARTS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS...WITH DOWNGLIDE BEGINNING AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT CONFINED TO NE TEXAS. BEST CHANCES FOR A DUSTING NE ZONE.
SHORTWAVE TIMING CRITICAL...AS WELL AS COLD ADVECTION. PARTIAL
THICKNESSES ONLY BEGIN TO FAVOR SNOW LATE IN THE DAY...AND INFLUENCE
OF IMPULSE MAY BE DONE BY THEN. SOME ELEVATED MOISTURE 400-500MB MAY
BE SUFFICIENT TO SEED CLOUD LAYER...WITH LOW CLOUD DECK HANGING IN
DESPITE PURGING OF MOISTURE FROM BOUNDARY LAYER. SOME SUBLIMATION IN
DRY SFC LAYER SHOULD OCCUR...AND FEEL SNOW PROCESSES INADEQUATE FOR
MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES. WILL NEED TO FURTHER ASSESS AS EVENT
APPROACHES.

COLD ARCTIC AIR TO LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND. THURS/FRI/SAT ALL COLD
MORNINGS...CHRISTMAS EVE MORNING PERHAPS THE COLDEST...DEPENDING ON
WIND AND CLEARING. LOWER 20S AND PERHAPS SOME TEENS EACH MORNING.
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL MAKE CHRISTMAS DAY PLEASANT WITH SUNSHINE
AND LIGHT WINDS...DESPITE HIGH TEMPS STILL IN THE 40S.
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#107 Postby CaptinCrunch » Tue Dec 21, 2004 1:51 pm

A DETAILED MIDNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED A CANADIAN COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE RED RIVER...A BIT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...WITH A SHARP
ARCTIC FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER.
PRESSURE RISES WERE SIGNIFICANT WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT...AND THIS
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE...PUSHING THE ARCTIC AIR RAPIDLY INTO NORTH
TEXAS WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE CANADIAN COLD
FRONT HAD DIMINISHED FROM 00Z TO 06Z...ALTHOUGH THE FRONT KEPT A
FAIRLY BRISK MOVEMENT TO THE RED RIVER. WE THINK THAT THE PRESSURE
TRENDS INDICATE THE FRONT IS SLOWING...AS PER THE MESO-MODELS'
FORECAST. THIS LIKELY IS IN RESPONSE TO A 500 MB TROUGH AND HEIGHT
FALL CENTER NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. AS THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PLAINS TODAY...THE LEAD CANADIAN FRONT WILL MOVE
RESUME MOVING RAPIDLY SOUTH ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...WITH THE ARCTIC AIR
TO FOLLOW.

WE HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT BEHIND THE FRONTS. WE ALSO
HAVE KEPT LOW RAIN/VERY LIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...MAINLY
LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE EVENT IS NOT ONE TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD HEAVY WINTER PRECIPITATION. THE DEEP COLD ADVECTION ON
THE BACK SIDES OF THE FRONTS WILL NULLIFY THAT POSSIBILITY.
STILL...SOME LIGHT SNOW LIKELY WILL GET PEOPLE PLENTY
EXCITED...SINCE IT IS RATHER RARE IN THE AREA. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW OR ICE AT THIS TIME.
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#108 Postby CaptinCrunch » Tue Dec 21, 2004 1:57 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
500 AM CST TUE DEC 21 2004

.DISCUSSION...
THERE'S ENOUGH DIFFERENCES IN THE SHORT RANGE MODELS THAT CAN MAKE
ONE WONDER WHERE AND HOW MUCH SNOW COULD OCCUR. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
ENOUGH HOWEVER...TO ZERO INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND
SUBSTANTIATE THE ISSUANCE OF WINTER WEATHER WATCH. PRECIPITABLE WATER
OF 3 TO 4 TENTHS WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR ISENTROPIC PROCESSES AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO TAP INTO IT. SNOWFALL COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM ENTERS THE AREA...SNOW SHOULD SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND INTENSITY WILL INCREASE. THE WATCH AREA COULD
RECEIVE AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW BY THE END OF WEDNESDAY.
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#109 Postby gboudx » Tue Dec 21, 2004 2:11 pm

CC, I don't get why the NWS says that snow is rare for this area. I've lived in the Dallas area since 1995, and I swear we've seen snow at least once almost every year. Maybe not accumulating snow, but at least flurries. Do you think they mean rare in that it may happen once a year? And not rare like Houston/New Orleans rare?
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#110 Postby CaptinCrunch » Tue Dec 21, 2004 2:31 pm

I think that they mean rare as in this early in the season, Today is the first day of winter.

I have been reading the forecast discussions from the NWS's across the state as well as Norman OK. and most beleive that the moisture will be in all levels and stronger than first thought, it seems that the GFS models are being favored over the others and that the artic front is about 12 hrs ahead of schudel and would arrive here in NTX late this afternoon.

Per the NWS discussions it would seem that most will lower temps for the coming days by 5-7 degrees as subzero and single digit temps are the norm across the northern U.S

I would expect some light snow across the D/FW area tomorrow afternoon and evening, but do not expect anything to stick to roads and grassy areas but some light accumulation on autos might be expected. Snow looks to be heavier to the west and Northwest with a 1 to 3 inches.

I'm on Vacation this week and will not be online much so to all my FRIENDS here.....MERRY CHRISTMAS and HAPPY HOLIDAYS!!!!
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#111 Postby gboudx » Tue Dec 21, 2004 2:42 pm

That probably explains it. BTW, I noticed the San Angelo NWS has a high of 22 for Abilene on Thursday. Yet, areas in DFW are not nearly that cold. And Abilene is Southwest of our area. Makes me wonder if the DFW NWS is just being too conservative, or the San Angelo being overzealous. Guess we'll know more later today.

You also have a Merry Christmas!
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#112 Postby misty » Tue Dec 21, 2004 3:33 pm

Oh, there you r captin, ha ha. I was just wanting to get your views o the snowfall. They are saying rain/snow in southwest arkansas but accumulations should stay up north where the watches are. I am just hoping for a little for christmas caroling!!! Also a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to you and yours.

:D
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#113 Postby jeff » Tue Dec 21, 2004 5:25 pm

Some snow for N TX over the next 36 hours.

Cold arctic front surging south will arrive late tonight. Isentropic lifting begins by midday mainly north of I-20 with precip. breaking out along the Red River and spreading ESE.


Forecast profiles are frozen to about 925mb where they rise above freezing. Evaporative effects and wet bulbing should be able to reduce the near surface temp. to at or below freezing by late afternoon along and north of I-20.

Precip. (snow) of .5 to 1.0 inches will be possible over N TX along and north of I-20 with amounts of a dusting to .25 of an inch over the metro areas. Warm ground conditions should result in much of the precip melting on contact except where surface temps are able to drop to freezing. In those areas only grassy surfaces should see any light accumulation. Road surfaces should be okay until later Wed night when temps drop into the 20's and left over melted snow freezes

JL
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#114 Postby CaptinCrunch » Tue Dec 21, 2004 6:34 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
400 PM CST TUE DEC 21 2004

.DISCUSSION...
400 PM CST

TONIGHT...
CYCLOGENESIS OVER NORTH TEXAS TODAY...ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE DRAWN TO
PRESSURE FALLS AND ACCELERATE. DEEPENING LOW IN GREAT LAKES
SIPHONING COLDEST AIR OFF TO THE EAST...BUT WESTWARD MOMENTUM OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE FRONT MORE SOUTHERLY.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONFINED TO FAR EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE EAST THIS EVENING...BUT FEEL
IMPINGING NORTHERLY SFC WINDS WILL REDUCE ALREADY LIMITED MOISTURE.
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AREAWIDE WITH REMAINING MILD AIR LIFTED
IN ADVANCE OF ARCTIC AIR.

WEDNESDAY...
MODELS TRENDING TOWARD MORE SIGNIFICANT ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF
I-20 ON WEDNESDAY. GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 700-800MB FORCING WITH
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...PARTICULARLY IN S OKLAHOMA. QPF ALGORITHMS
YIELDING 1/10-1/4 IN WATER EQUIVALENT. QUESTION WILL BE TIMING OF
SNOW PROFILE. PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FIRST IN NW ZONES WHERE
BEST LIFT AND DURATION MAY ALLOW FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS UP TO 1 INCH.
MAX SNOW GRIDS 1/2 INCH TOTAL 12Z-00Z WEDNESDAY. TRANSLATION OF LIFT
TO NE ZONES DURING THE DAY BEFORE DOWNGLIDE OVERTAKES ENTIRE CWA
AROUND 00Z. NE ZONE MAY EXCEED 1/2 INCH AS WELL WHERE BULK OF PRECIP
WILL BE DURING TIME OF FAVORABLE THICKNESSES. MEASURABLE SNOW
PRIMARILY N OF RPH-LUD-PRX. WITH WARM GROUND...SNOW ACCUMULATION
SHOULD INITIALLY BE LIMITED TO GRASSY SURFACES. TRAVEL IMPEDANCE
SHOULD BE MINIMAL...BUT WILL NEED TO BEAR WATCHING ALONG RED RIVER.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOT NEEDED AT THIS TIME AS TRAVEL PROBLEMS
NOT ANTICIPATED.

EVAPORATIVE COOLING OF PRECIP INTO DRY ARCTIC AIR WILL HELP
ACCELERATE TEMPERATURE DROP...AND IMPROVE SOUTHERN TRANSLATION OF
SNOW LINE. RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW I-20 CORRIDOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW POSSIBLE...BUT ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE MINIMAL
AND LIMITED TO GRASSY SURFACES. LIFT INSIGNIFICANT SOUTH OF I-20...
BUT SCATTERED FLURRIES WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WITH DOWNGLIDE...WEDNESDAY EVENING PRECIP TO BE INSIGNIFICANT...
EXCEPT IN NE WHERE EXIT TIME OF LIFT MAY ALLOW SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
LINGER PAST 00Z. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY...
VERY COLD MORNINGS WITH TEENS AND LOWER 20S AREAWIDE THURS/FRI/SAT.
HAVE REDUCED LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. DAYTIME CLOUDINESS WILL
STUNT MODERATING OF ARCTIC AIR INITIALLY...AND LIGHT WINDS AND DRY
AIR WILL ALLOW FOR FRIGID NIGHTS. SOUTH WINDS AND SUNSHINE WILL SEND
TEMPS INTO THE 40S FOR A COOL...BUT PLEASANT IN COMPARISON...
CHRISTMAS DAY.
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#115 Postby AggieSpirit » Tue Dec 21, 2004 7:01 pm

2 years ago (I beleive in January or Februrary) they said somethign very similair to this, and we squeezed out 1-2 inches of snow in Arlington - it was a suprise.

I am getting used to a pattern down here in Texas from the local NWS and the Tv mets. When they say flurries you still have a 50/50 shot of getting a good snow with some accumulation. And then, if they actually predict snow accumulation, it is a pretty good bet that it will barely be a dusting :).

Last year, for the first time that I can remember, everyone pretty much predicted the 1-3 inches of snow that fell most places on valentines day. Of course, me and CaptainCrunch got a lot more in the 287 corridor (Mansfield, Kennedale, S. Arlington)
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#116 Postby CaptinCrunch » Mon Dec 27, 2004 9:05 am

NWS FT WORTH TX
DEC 27 430AM


.LONG RANGE...
UNCERTAINTIES EVEN BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED LATE WEEK THROUGH NEW
YEAR/S WEEKEND WITH POPS THURS-SAT...AS BROAD CYCLONIC LONGWAVE FLOW
ENCOMPASSES WRN CONUS WITH SW FLOW AND OCNL PERTURBATIONS RIDING
NEWD ACROSS TX/PLAINS. EXTENT OF CAPPING/INSTABILITY/MOISTURE STILL
UNCERTAIN...BUT WITH STRONG FLOW THROUGH THE VERTICAL...WILL
CONTINUE LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NEW
YEAR. HOPEFULLY IT/LL STAY DRY/WARM ENOUGH FOR COMFORT AT AREA
COLLEGE BOWL GAMES. FINALLY...POTENTIAL SHALLOW ARCTIC SURGE PROGGED
INTO N TX SHORTLY THEREAFTER (SUN-MON?). CANADIAN FASTEST INTO THE
REGION SAT NIGHT...WHILE GFS/ECMWF/NCEP ARE SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL MORE
LATER IN DAY SUN OR SUN NIGHT JAN 2. WILL ELECT WITH SLOWER TIMING
WITH SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING AND TIMING OF SUCH FEATURES THAT FAR
OUT VERY DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN. DID SHOW COOLING TREND MONDAY/JAN


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
2550 PM CST MON DEC 27 2004


.DISCUSSION...
CONTINUED FAIRLY WARM THROUGH DAY SEVEN. CUTOFF LOW OFFSHORE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA STILL PROGGED TO EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY WELL TO OUR NORTH. GFS IS WETTEST
MODEL FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ETA AND CANADIAN ARE FAIRLY DRY
WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL KEEP CHANCE IN NORTH AND EAST FOR
THURSDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY OVER
THE REST OF NORTH TEXAS. HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO PATCHY
MORNING STRATUS TUESDAY AND THEN MORE WIDESPREAD STRATUS WEDNESDAY.
FLOW IS SOUTHEAST TUESDAY...SOUTH WEDNESDAY...AND THEN MORE
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY...GIVING US SOME DOWNSLOPE. BY FRIDAY WINDS
SWITCH WEST AROUND MIDDAY WITH STRONGER DOWNSLOPE AND SOME
CLEARING BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT...SO FRIDAY MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE WEEK.

ARCTIC HIGH STILL PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS...AND LATEST MRF
RUN HAS FROPA ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NO FULL LATITUDE
TROF WITH THIS SYSTEM SO WOULD NOT EXPECT COLD AIR TO HANG AROUND
TOO LONG. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THE MOISTURE SET UP
PLAYS OUT BECAUSE WITH SPLIT FLOW THIS COULD BE A PRECIP PRODUCER.
WE MAY HAVE SOME SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT TO LIFT SOME MOISTURE OVER
THIS COLD DOME.
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#117 Postby CaptinCrunch » Tue Dec 28, 2004 9:00 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
458 AM CST TUE DEC 28 2004



.LONG RANGE...
MORE DISCONTINUITIES ARISE AMONGST MED RANGE MODELS LATE WEEK...NEW
YEAR/S WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY NEW YEAR REGARDING TIMING OF
FRONTAL FEATURES AND RAIN CHANCES. STRONG S/W EJECTS OVER THE
CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS THURS NIGHT/FRI...AS A SFC TROUGH TRAILS ACROSS N
TX. MOISTURE SLOWLY CONTINUES CREEPING UP...BUT BEST DIV Q/FORCING
FAIRLY WEAK AND WITH CAP STILL AROUND IN STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT
REGIME...WILL STAY ON LOW END WITH POPS WITH SPLIT UPPER JET PATTERN
DEVELOPING WITH N TX IN BETWEEN. BETTER MOISTURE OVER ERN HALF OF N
TX THIS WEEKEND WITH PACIFIC COLD FRONT ARRIVING SUNDAY WITH OCNL
PIECES OF ENERGY EJECT OUT OF WRN CONUS TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS AND
DECIDED CHANCE POPS THE WAY TO GO WITH MANY UNCERTAINTIES...
ESPECIALLY FLIP FLOPPING BY THE GFS PER RUN TO RUN ANALYSIS THIS
TIME FRAME. WRN CONUS TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE SLOWLY EWD OVER THE
ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PER COORD WITH NCEP/EWX/HGX (THANK
YOU)...WILL GO A COMPROMISE WITH ARRIVAL OF MORE SHALLOW
POLAR/ARCTIC AIR INTO THE AREA NEXT MON NIGHT INTO TUES FOR NOW. OF
COURSE...CONFIDENCE VERY LOW ATTM WITH TWEAKS IN UPCOMING FCSTS.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
253 PM CST TUE DEC 28 2004


.DISCUSSION...
IN THE SHORT TERM...LOOKS LIKE DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING PATCHY FOG AND WIDESPREAD STRATUS BY DAYBREAK.
FOG NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO TERRIBLY EXTENSIVE DUE TO WIND
SPEEDS AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH BEFORE SUNRISE INCREASING TO 10 TO 20
DURING THE MORNING. I HAVE LOWERED PRECIP CHANCES TO SLIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE GFS HAS BEEN WETTER THAN OTHER
MODELS AND THIS MORNINGS RUN HAS BACKED OFF ON PRECIP A BIT. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE ENERGY FROM THE PACIFIC LOW MOVES NORTH OF US...SO
JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF POPS EXPECTED. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT
WETTER WITH THE GFS PRODUCING UP TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OVER PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. STILL CONSIDER
GFS ALL WET BUT HAVE INCREASED POPS DUE TO PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AT THAT TIME. TIMING OF SHORT WAVE IFFY BUT SEEMS LIKE A
REASONABLE SOLUTION.

LONG TERM...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY. GFS BRINGS ARCTIC AIR ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY...BUT ECMWF DELAYS THINGS UNTIL MID-WEEK NEXT
WEEK. CANADIAN SUGGESTS MONDAY MORNING AND I FIGURED THAT MONDAY WAS
AN OKAY COMPROMISE...BUT THINGS CAN AND WILL CHANGE. THE FACT THAT
THE GFS HAS SPED UP OVER 24 HOURS FROM LAST RUN TO THIS ONE GIVES ME
LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN ITS SOLUTION. SO...FRONT COULD BE THROUGH
ANYTIME FROM SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY...WHEN SOME MODEL CONSENSUS OCCURS
WE CAN BE MORE CERTAIN OF TIMING.
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#118 Postby CaptinCrunch » Tue Dec 28, 2004 4:57 pm

Not that it matters because it's a accuweather forecast, but 1/4 thru 1/8 shows a chance of ice/sleet and lt. snow during the overnight hours.

Like I said it's a Accuweather forecast :lol:
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#119 Postby aggiecutter » Tue Dec 28, 2004 5:23 pm

It's quite typical in Texas with a shallow arctic air mass to get an overruning situation with ice. Usually, it's either freezing drizzle or light freezing rain. I just read that discussion from the Ft. Worth weather office and the met. said the EURO had the front coming through N. Texas during the mid-week time frame. He must of been looking at different run than the 12z because it is blowtorching Texas next week.
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CaptinCrunch
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#120 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed Dec 29, 2004 9:16 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
648 AM CST WED DEC 29 2004



.DISCUSSION...
DEEP INTENSE UPPER TROUGH/LOW ALONG THE WESTERN COAST WITH A STRONG
UPSTREAM OMEGA BLOCK IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL CONTROL NORTH
TEXAS WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND BEYOND. STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT FROM THE WEST COAST SYSTEM AND RIDGING JUST DOWN STREAM
WILL KEEP CYCLONES EJECTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS
WITH ARCTIC AIR PILED UP ACROSS CANADA THAT COULD SINK INTO NORTH
TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE MAJOR PROBLEMS WITH THE
TIMING...INTENSE AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM SUNDAY/MONDAY
SHOULD BRING THE AIR MASS SOUTHWARD. ECMWF KEEPS THE ARCTIC AIR
NORTH OF THE REGION WHILE THE CANADIAN ALLOWS SOME TO INTRUDE. THE
GFSLR IS THE MOST INTERESTING AS IT SLIDES THE AIR MASS INTO NORTH
TEXAS EARLY UNDER STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A VIGOROUS SHORT
WAVE KICKS OUT (ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW THIS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE EJECTING
OUT OF THE WEST COAST SYSTEM). I STILL QUESTION THE GFSLR TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE ARCTIC INTRUSION FOR NORTH TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK
(AIR MASS WILL HAVE TIME TO MODIFY SOMEWHAT BEFORE REACHING THE
AREA). FOR THIS REASON...DELAYED IT/S ARRIVAL UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AND
LIFT IT BACK NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG CYCLOGENESIS BEGINS
IN THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

AS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE LOW AND FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA/SHRA THURSDAY AND
OVERNIGHT. ISENTROPIC RAIN PROCESS BEGINS LATE FRIDAY AS LLJ CRANKS
UP AND CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY. MODEL QPF AND POPS FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE... SO POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED OVER THE
WEEKEND. ALSO ADDED CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THE
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION AND ASSOCIATED OVERRUNNING
PATTERN.
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