January outlook for the ENTIRE US, and Florida dry season

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wxguy25
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January outlook for the ENTIRE US, and Florida dry season

#1 Postby wxguy25 » Tue Dec 28, 2004 7:02 pm

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#2 Postby Brent » Tue Dec 28, 2004 7:04 pm

Yuck... the dreaded ridge.
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#3 Postby Wnghs2007 » Tue Dec 28, 2004 7:20 pm

Hey I have a question. Doesnt the SE ridge correlate to a trough over the azores and a strong atlantic jet to disperse the ssta warm pool in the atlantic. Thats HMs thinking...


Also near euope on this map the SSTAS are a good bit cooler than they were just 6 days ago.

6 Days ago Look near Europe

Image


Today Look at Europe... area and across Central Atl.

Image

Just wondering wxguy25
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#4 Postby ColdFront77 » Tue Dec 28, 2004 7:24 pm

It was nice to see some rain this month across the Sunshine State:

............Orlando: 1.76", 6 days with a trace
............Sanford: 1.51", 3 days with a trace
Daytona Beach: 2.24" , 5 days with a trace
.......Melbourne: 3.01", 5 days with a trace
.........Leesburg: 1.43", 1 day . with a trace
.......Fort Pierce: 2.48", 4 days with a trace
......Vero Beach: 2.54", 3 days with a trace
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#5 Postby wxguy25 » Tue Dec 28, 2004 7:36 pm

Wnghs2007 wrote:Hey I have a question. Doesnt the SE ridge correlate to a trough over the azores and a strong atlantic jet to disperse the ssta warm pool in the atlantic. Thats HMs thinking...


Also near euope on this map the SSTAS are a good bit cooler than they were just 6 days ago.

6 Days ago Look near Europe

Image


Today Look at Europe... area and across Central Atl.

Image

Just wondering wxguy25


The strong Atlantic jet is the result of the height gradient between the Azores ridge and the Icelandic low.

But w/ the SE ridge you CAN get trough amplification in that position (more of a central ATL trough). It also depends on the distance of the wavelengths across the Atlantic, and there are a multitude of other factors affect where the amplification occurs.
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#6 Postby wxguy25 » Tue Dec 28, 2004 8:44 pm

Seems there is quite a bit of speculation going on WRT to the potential for ANOTHER SE TX/ Gulf Coast winter storm.

Conclusively, I can tell you that it WILL NOT happen over the next 15 days as the action shifts west.

BUT w/ a -NAO developing JAN 20-25 and STJ undercutting it, the potential exists for another SIMILAR event given the magnitude of the cold air which may be available.

This DOES NOT mean that it will happen; it just means that the pattern is favorable for it. Given the rarity of events such as that, climo would argue against it. Personally I would place my bets on a major southern ice storm later in JAN and FEB.

STJ energy and plenty of GOM moisture overrunning a low level arctic air mass Is all it takes.
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#7 Postby wx247 » Tue Dec 28, 2004 9:36 pm

Excellent outlook. Hope you have to do this again for February! I always enjoy reading what is on your mind and your analysis.
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#8 Postby Wnghs2007 » Tue Dec 28, 2004 9:57 pm

wxguy25 wrote: Personally I would place my bets on a major southern ice storm later in JAN and FEB.


*Wipes off computer Screen* oppsss Sorry wxguy25 :grrr: :eek: :lol:

ANYWHO.....I will not be here the next few days thru the 3rd of January. As I am going down to tampa Fl. And the Orlando Florida areas. May ride down to St. Petersburg and Punta Gorda to check out what been happening there since Charley. My dad is Curious.
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#9 Postby wxguy25 » Tue Dec 28, 2004 10:01 pm

wx247 wrote:Excellent outlook. Hope you have to do this again for February! I always enjoy reading what is on your mind and your analysis.


Thanks, Garrett. I appreciate the positive feedback.

IF I have time there will be a FEB outlook.
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#10 Postby wx247 » Tue Dec 28, 2004 10:05 pm

I understand all about having limited time.

I learn so much every time I read all these posts/outlooks. Thanks for donating your time!
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#11 Postby wxguy25 » Tue Dec 28, 2004 10:10 pm

Wnghs2007 wrote:
wxguy25 wrote: Personally I would place my bets on a major southern ice storm later in JAN and FEB.


*Wipes off computer Screen* oppsss Sorry wxguy25 :grrr: :eek: :lol:


Well I would. a STJ undercutting a complex...convoluted NW Atlantic pattern characterized by pronounced Split flow and blocking opens up a WORLD of opportunity for a Southern ice/Snow event as large as if not larger than the one that we just saw.

the 50-50 and block would slow the jet and also lead to pronounced meridional flow, helping AJ/PJ energy to dig more -- opening up the chances for MAJOR phasing w/ the STJ once it becomes active.

ANYWHO.....I will not be here the next few days thru the 3rd of January. As I am going down to tampa Fl. And the Orlando Florida areas. May ride down to St. Petersburg and Punta Gorda to check out what been happening there since Charley. My dad is Curious.


Enjoy your trip to FL.
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#12 Postby Wnghs2007 » Tue Dec 28, 2004 10:22 pm

wxguy25 wrote:Well I would. a STJ undercutting a complex...convoluted NW Atlantic pattern characterized by pronounced Split flow and blocking opens up a WORLD of opportunity for a Southern ice/Snow event as large as if not larger than the one that we just saw.

the 50-50 and block would slow the jet and also lead to pronounced meridional flow, helping AJ/PJ energy to dig more -- opening up the chances for MAJOR phasing w/ the STJ once it becomes active.


:notworthy: :notworthy: :notworthy: :notworthy: :notworthy:

wxguy25 wrote:
Wnghs2007 wrote:ANYWHO.....I will not be here the next few days thru the 3rd of January. As I am going down to tampa Fl. And the Orlando Florida areas. May ride down to St. Petersburg and Punta Gorda to check out what been happening there since Charley. My dad is Curious.


Enjoy your trip to FL.


Thanks.
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#13 Postby jeff » Tue Dec 28, 2004 10:28 pm

Well done report (long range pattern forecast). Is your interest in long range forecasting??
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#14 Postby wxguy25 » Tue Dec 28, 2004 10:50 pm

jeff wrote:Well done report (long range pattern forecast). Is your interest in long range forecasting??


One of them. And its an area which I have had some good success in over the past few years. Especially when it comes to my winter outlooks. My other areas of Interest are Dynamic and mesoscale meteorology. But yes, medium and long range forecasting are definitely two of my strong points.

Tropical wx is probably also one of my weaker spots since I don't have a lot of operational experience with it (being from the Northeast) other than what I came out of the classroom with.
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#15 Postby Anonymous » Tue Dec 28, 2004 11:04 pm

Hey wxguy25, this is one of the BEST analyses I have EVER read THUS FAR!!!

One favor I'd like to ask of you:

I would really appreciate it a lot if you would retain this page
http://www.wxguy.storm2k.org/jan_2005/january2005.htm
and others you author so that severely meteorologically-challenged folk such as yours truly can have a chance to learn something about weather! Thanks!! :) :) :)

-Jeb
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#16 Postby sertorius » Tue Dec 28, 2004 11:17 pm

wxguy25:

Fantastic!! Thanks for taking the time to share it with this board-I learned tons!! tahnks again!!
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#17 Postby stormman » Tue Dec 28, 2004 11:18 pm

very nice outlook, I have a question though, how confident are you that the nao will go negative by late january? Im just concerned because what if it doesnt go negative, and I have heard a few say that it may not go negative at all this winter. And if that were to happen, well their goes are winter in the east.
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#18 Postby wxguy25 » Tue Dec 28, 2004 11:19 pm

Jeb wrote:Hey wxguy25, this is one of the BEST analyses I have EVER read THUS FAR!!!

One favor I'd like to ask of you:

I would really appreciate it a lot if you would retain this page
http://www.wxguy.storm2k.org/jan_2005/january2005.htm
and others you author so that severely meteorologically-challenged folk such as yours truly can have a chance to learn something about weather! Thanks!! :) :) :)

-Jeb


You can save it if you want. I don't have a problem with that. I keep most of the larger documents such as my seasonal outlooks on a USB disk anyway so A) if something happens to my normal PC or Laptop I have them backed up and 2) so that i have easy access to them whenever its needed.

I'm In the process of revamping the homepage to add links to the wxblog page, Jan outlook and other documents.
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#19 Postby wxguy25 » Tue Dec 28, 2004 11:28 pm

stormman wrote:very nice outlook, I have a question though, how confident are you that the nao will go negative by late january? Im just concerned because what if it doesnt go negative, and I have heard a few say that it may not go negative at all this winter. And if that were to happen, well their goes are winter in the east.


Confident enough to make it the basis of my pattern ideas for the last half of the month. It will go negative once the warm pool is gone in the central ATL.

Yes i know its basing one forecast off of another forecast (something MANY folks consider to be risky business, as Do I), BUT--the warm pool is already breaking down, and the North Atlantic, Subtropical Atlantic are VERY warm. SO...Once the SSTA tripole develops I would even venture so far as to say the NAO may go strongly negative. Bold yes. Correct? Probably, but time will tell.

IF it does not go negative then my forecast for the second half of JAN will probably BUST, unless the PNA stays up there. Then again this would also suggest that my MAJOR east coast snowstorm threat for the same period would not materialize. Either an inland runner or near miss.
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#20 Postby Anonymous » Wed Dec 29, 2004 12:34 am

wxguy25 wrote:
Jeb wrote:Hey wxguy25, this is one of the BEST analyses I have EVER read THUS FAR!!!

One favor I'd like to ask of you:

I would really appreciate it a lot if you would retain this page
http://www.wxguy.storm2k.org/jan_2005/january2005.htm
and others you author so that severely meteorologically-challenged folk such as yours truly can have a chance to learn something about weather! Thanks!! :) :) :)

-Jeb


You can save it if you want. I don't have a problem with that. I keep most of the larger documents such as my seasonal outlooks on a USB disk anyway so A) if something happens to my normal PC or Laptop I have them backed up and 2) so that i have easy access to them whenever its needed.

I'm In the process of revamping the homepage to add links to the wxblog page, Jan outlook and other documents.


Alright I saved it and the graphics. I will only use this material for personal education purposes. It will NOT EVER be republished on the Net or by any other means. Thanks.

You know something wxguy? We need to get you your own domain name and an account with iPowerweb. It's easy, and it does not cost much, and one of these days I will find a way to do it for you!! :)

-Jeb :)
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