A Grim Anniversary

[Aslkahuna]

is coming up for our Aussie Friends down under. On Christmas Day in Australia it will be the 30th Anniversary of when TC Tracy leveled Darwin.
Equivalent to a Category 5 hit this is considered Australia's worst TC hit ever. The storm was similar to the 1935 Labor Day storm in FL Keys being a small storm and bombing rapidly before landfall.

Steve

[Derek Ortt]

I've seen images of the destruction. Makes Homestead after Andrew look like an upper class resort.

What is a shame is that if Tracy had just made a mere wobble before landfall, Darwin would not have even felt a breeze. TS winds only extended about 25 miles from the center of the eye, meaning if you didnt get the eye wall, you got nothing. Hard to believe that something could be about 10X smaller than Charley

[P.K.]

I saw some pictures of this on a tv programme the other day. Not sure if anymore damage could have been done.

[Hurricanehink]

Poor city

[AussieMark]

This is one of the worst natural disasters in Australian History.

not much survived.

I fear if a similar cyclone struck the area or the East Coast of Queensland.

[Derek Ortt]

the chances are about the same as they would be for a tornado to hit a city due to Tracy's rediculously small size. A scale analysis of the storm would likely show that its size was much more comparable to a alrge tornado than to a normal tropical cyclone

[P.K.]

Just found this:





Vital Statistics of Cyclone Tracy
Size
Gales extended to about 40 km from centre

Diameter of eye
About 12 km at Darwin

Maximum Wind Gust
217 km/h before anemometer ceased functioning

Central Pressure
950 hectopascals

Storm Surge
1.6 metres measured in harbour, 4 metres estimated at Casuarina Beach

Rainfall
255 mm in 12 hours overnight

Death Toll
65 people

Injuries
145 serious injuries, over 500 with minor injuries

Number of Houses Destroyed
About 70% of houses with serious structural failure

Total Damage Bill
Up to $800 million (1974 $s)



http://www.ntlib.nt.gov.au/tracy

[Derek Ortt]

with the eye being 7NM, that means there was only about 18NM more before the winds decreased to below TS intensity. In other words, you were either in the eye wall, or you had perfect golfing weather.

Tracy makes Charley look like a massive storm

[weatherluvr]

Here's a site on Tracy. Remarkable storm.

http://www.ntlib.nt.gov.au/tracy/advanced/Met/25am.html

[HurricaneBill]

Tracy is listed as a Category 4 with a pressure of 950 mb, according to the Bureau of Meteorology. However, I read in a book that claimed Tracy had a barometric pressure of 27.00 inches.

BTW, the Category 4 is on the Australian scale. I think it would equate to a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

However, Tracy was a midget cyclone and the Category 4 ranking might be a tad low.

[Derek Ortt]

not sure what wind reading that is on. Everything I have seen indicates that Tracy was a 5, and I believe that the dynamical equations also easily support a cat 5. Maybe after I sober upin the morning I will do the gradient wind calculation if anyone is interested. But I will need the pressure at the edge of the storm and the radius of curvature to do this calculation

[HurricaneBill]

I did a bit more research and Tracy is listed as AT LEAST a Category 4. The pressure reading of 950 mb was probably not the lowest pressure because Tracy was such a small storm and probably a very steep pressure gradient.

I think the reason Tracy is listed as a Category 4 by the BoM is because the Australian Scale is determined primarily on wind gusts. The highest gust with Tracy was around 135 mph before the wind instrument failed. I'm pretty sure the highest gusts were not recorded.

To qualify on the Australian Scale as a Category 5, gusts must be at least 280 km/h (around 173 mph). I think sustained winds would probably have to be around 140 mph.

Personally, I think Tracy was a Category 5 hands down on both the Australian scale and the Saffir-Simpson scale. I read evidence suggests Tracy was probably a Category 5.

Wooden structures were pretty much obliterated by Tracy. Derek, at what category would you see obliteration of wooden structures?

[Hyperstorm]

Wooden structures were pretty much obliterated by Tracy. Derek, at what category would you see obliteration of wooden structures?

A category 4 would do it or even a 3 if the structures are weak. You saw that in Grenada when Ivan passed by as a 125 mph hurricane.

In any case, Tracy could be classfied as a category 5 since it left the entire town inhabitable, practically. This you can only see it in extreme situations of strong 4 or 5. I seriously doubt a 135 mph hurricane can do that much damage.

[Derek Ortt]

I have never seen anything, including some images of Hiroshima, as bad off as was Darwin after Tracy in some of the photos.

I have seen a lot of hurricane damage photos, some of them disturbing, but when I saw an arial photo of Darwin after Tracy, I literally didnt move for about 30 minutes

[AussieMark]

I am fearful if Drawin was smacked again.

The population of Darwin is lot bigger now than in the mid 1970's.

Its kinda like the Gold Coast in southern Queensland is.

[EWRC]

It's just amazing how small Tracy was. My opinion Tracy was around 160mph, similar intensity of Charley at landfall. Infact IMO Charley was very close or at cat5 with winds close to 160mph. I've talked to Richard pasch regarding Charley and he told me that NHC used 88 percent of flight level winds to come up with the 150mph, and Dr. Chris Landsea also has told me Charley might have been borderline 5 at landfall. Also when Charley was entering Port Charlotte Harbor the eyewall became more intense and got tighter http://vortex.accuweather.com/phoenix2/ ... ndfall.mov

Which is common in hurricanes making landfall such as in Andrews case. Charley's eye was so small most of it stayed over water as he was moving up the harbor. It's scary to imagine if Charley was over water another 2 or 3 hours. I think a 170mph or 175mph storm would have been possible. IMO the labor Day storm of 1935 was similar to the size of Charley. While most cat4 and 5 monsters are large in size such as Ivan, Mitch, Georges, Gilbert the compact ones such as Tracy, Charley, Iris, Andrew, Labor Day storm, and Camille are the ones that always concern me more cause it seems that the smaller storms are less prone to eyewall cycles, and also intensify faster due to their tighter pressure gradient. The average person in the public who knows little about the weather think a small storm like Charley is not as dangerous, when in reality they can be more dangerous right before landfall.

[Derek Ortt]

is this yet another great one sighting? If not forgive me please, but some of the language in this post is identical to some of his e-mails to me

[HurricaneBill]

is this yet another great one sighting? If not forgive me please, but some of the language in this post is identical to some of his e-mails to me

I don't think so. No mention of Stephanie Abrams or the word "assanine"(sp?).

Plus, the spelling is too good and no anti-NHC comments.

Sheesh, I feel like a forensics investigator.

[HurricaneBill]

My mistake, it is (not so) Greatone.

[EWRC]

My dream is to work at NHC forecasting storms someday. I know though with my math skills that would not be possible although I know alot about hurricanes and know just about everything about past storms from hours of research. THats why I want to be a storm chaser like Chris Collura, or Jim Edds. That way I can stand in a storm outside and see it with my own eyes like they did in Charley. That would be so neat to be in a cat4, or 5 storm.