Another Arctic Attack looming?

[aggiecutter]

This is the first run of the GFS(0z) the past 5 days that has even hinted at a major pattern change. Checkout hours 360-384. I know its the GFS and its bias, but more often than not the GFS will pick-up on a pattern change in the long range, then waffle in the mid-range and pick it back up in the short range. It'll be interesting to see if it has the same, or similiar solutions in its next 7 or 8 runs. If it does and there is other model agreement, then it may be onto something.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _fpc.shtml

[yoda]

This is the first run of the GFS(0z) the past 5 days that has even hinted at a major pattern change. Checkout hours 360-384. I know its the GFS and its bias, but more often than not the GFS will pick-up on a pattern change in the long range, then waffle in the mid-range and pick it back up in the short range. It'll be interesting to see if it has the same, or similiar solutions in its next 7 or 8 runs. If it does and there is other model agreement, then it may be onto something.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _fpc.shtml

Must be just for the Midwest then... cause all I see in the East are major South winds roaring up the East with a lot of rain...

[aggiecutter]

The 12z run of the Ensembles also hints at a Mid-January pattern change.

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 22812.html

[yoda]

There 12z run of the Ensembles also hint at a Mid-January pattern change.

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 22812.html

Well, that looks interesting.. but unfortuanetly for me I can't read those enesembles very well...

[wxguy25]

Must be just for the Midwest then... cause all I see in the East are major South winds roaring up the East with a lot of rain...

I see a GOOD pattern for a Midwest snowstorm and *POSSIBLE* svr wx episode lower MS valley, TX, Gulf coast. as far as an arctic outbreak is concerned...ITS NOT HAPPENING.

[wxguy25]

this is what I think of the D 10 ECMWF:

[yoda]

this is what I think of the D 10 ECMWF:

Good post. I will enjoy the warm weather while it lasts then. This somewhat reminds me of the winter of 97-98.... only because it was in the 60s and 70s in early January. I am only mentioning the temps, because that year was a Strong El Nino year.

[sertorius]

No doubt, it is looking more and more like the "event" of early next week is going out the window for my area-the EURO has the correct ideas and keeps us warm untill about Thursday next week when we begin to cool off. The GFS is now trending in that direction and even pulling the precip more west-looks like Nebraska and Western Kasas may get in on the fun, but for east central kansas, looks like a chilly rain. ETA still offers a little hoipe as the 0 line is almost thru Nebraska on Sunday night. I still think this bears watching for my area at least for a couple more days-still looks like we will cool back into the lower 40's next week which is pretty close to normal.

[wx247]

Oh the joy of watching the GFS waffle... I am still sticking with threat of ice from Wichita up toward Topeka, Omaha, and Des Moines next week, although that threat looks less likely this morning.

The cool down late in the weekend (if it happens) looks to be short-lived.

[sertorius]

wx247:

I'm really begining to doubt anything for this area now-the euro, which I have with my logical mind believed the whole time, does not show enough cold air-now the gfs is even trending down the precip. The low mid week goes north of me and I might have some wrap around snow-lets face it: I'm in one heck of a slump and I don't know if I will get out of it!! Next week now seems we will cool into the 40's possibly some 30's but that is it!! I don't buy the massive surge of the Gfs by
Thurdsday but the Euro is showing colder temps by next Friday and still shows that high moving out of Canada. While I'm not going to flop with each run of the gfs, it is trending more towards the Euro. And yea, the following week looks warm now-but who knows-I'll still keep watching-sorry this is rambling, but I have a 21 month old playing with the keys!!

[Guest]

Not sure if your implying that the storm track will be to the UP OF MI for the next 2 weeks wxguy but if so i think thats a little extreme IMHO. This week going into the weekend. Sure. But next week i have serious doubts about. Atleast for the Lakes anyways.

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
253 PM CST WED DEC 29 2004

.DISCUSSION...
ON SATURDAY HIGH DEWPOINT AIR SITS IN PLACE WITH WARM TEMPS IN THE
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH AND MODELS DEVELOP INSTABILITY...UP TO 1000 JULES PER
KILOGRAM ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. I HAVE PUT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER
IN FROM LATE MORNING FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. TIMING OF DISTURBANCES
WILL HAVE TO BE FLESHED OUT LATER BUT MODELS DEVELOP A SERIES OF
THEM.

ON SUNDAY...PACIFIC FRONT SLIDES INTO NORTH TEXAS AND APPEARS TO
HANG AROUND THROUGH MONDAY...AND SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS
THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO CONVERGENCE ALONG STALLED FRONT AND POSSIBLE
OVERRUNNING...AGAIN WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH. FRONT MOVES BACK INTO OKLAHOMA TUESDAY
SO LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE...BUT EARLY WEDNESDAY ANOTHER FRONT
MOVES BACK DOWN AGAIN.

WEDNESDAY FRONT MAY BE THE ARCTIC AIR WE HAVE BEEN EXPECTING...BUT
IT APPEARS THAT WITH NO STRONG PUSH UP AT THE 500 MB LEVEL AND
ABOVE...IT WILL HAVE HAD PLENTY OF TIME TO MODIFY AND MODERATE AS IT
MOVES DOWN THE PLAINS. COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED BUT NO BLAST OF WINTER
COLD LIKE LAST WEEK. MRF THAT WAS SO MUCH FASTER YESTERDAY THAN
PREVIOUS...HAS SLOWED UP AGAIN TODAY SO MAYBE THIS IS A MORE
REASONABLE SOLUTION.

[wxguy25]

Not sure if your implying that the storm track will be to the UP OF MI for the next 2 weeks wxguy but if so i think thats a little extreme IMHO. This week going into the weekend. Sure. But next week i have serious doubts about. Atleast for the Lakes anyways.

I meant the Lakes region in general. The storm track will migrate SLOWLY eastward with time.

[aggiecutter]

I just read Bastardi's afternoon post. Believe it or not, he said there would be snow and ice on the ground by the middle of next week from the central plains all the way to the Red River valley of North Texas. Quite a bold forcast considering he has no model support whatsoever. He went onto say that the Arctic front would reach New Orleans by thursday. There might be a wind shift line reach New Orleans by Thursday, but an arctic front, I doubt it.