Newest Snwowstorm Guess for next week

[Guest]

[chadtm80]

Suggestion: How about you shrink the maps some after you make them.. They are a bit big

[vbhoutex]

Craig, it is good to have you jumping right in with your forecasts, maps, and discussions, but I have another suggestion also. Instead of starting a new thread for each map, unless it is a seperate storm, post the updated maps in the same thread you started in. That way we can more easily compare the changes between them.

[Guest]

k....but do you think in Eastern NEbraska we will have a Ice Storm or Snowstorm. Just wanted someone elses opinion.

[vbhoutex]

I have not researched it enough to give an "educated" opinion, but from different posts I've seen on the site concerning it my guess is you will see a mix between the two with the snow being predominate.

[sertorius]

Craig:

I would say Omaha has a better chance of snow than say Kansas City-the euro has the storm much further south (running south of Wichita Wed. then into Northern Arkansas on Thursday) and has the 0 line past Omaha by Wed. afternoon-the gfs on its 6z run began to trend the storm further south and comming into agreement with the euro and also once again intensified the precip. I think KC and Lawrence will be dealing with temp. issues for most of Wed. but you look like you will be in pretty good shape for frozen precip-may start as fr. rain then sleet then snow or could be all snow-too early to tell as it is still a week away. There are posters here who could tell much better than I, but those are my ideas-you can see my thoughts on this "storm" in the Lawrence area thread. Of course by Saturday, the gfs could have this storm in Brownsville and then begin to bring it back up-follow the euro untill say Monday-Tuesday then look at the gfs.

[Guest]

So snow the most??/ How much Ice you think??

[sertorius]

I still think it is too early to nail it down-the arctic air could just as easily stay in the Northern Plains-My call reight now would be: wed. chance of fr. rain/sleet then changing to snow by Wed. afternoon or night-I would just tell people to stay tuned as it appears there is a storm headed here next week that really affect the central plains.

[Guest]

What about for tuesday?

[Stephanie]

Also Craig, are your maps based on a forecast that you made or what others have forecasted? I guess I'm confused by the maps that you are making and then asking others for their forecasts about whether there will be ice or snow.

[Guest]

YEs...both and off of forecast...I just wanted peolple opinions.

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
320 AM CST THU DEC 30 2004

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TYPE REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

MAJOR CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM. AFTER A MILD BUT WINDY DAY
TODAY WEATHER BEGINS TO TURN MORE WINTER LIKE BY THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE DEALING WITH EXTENT OF COLD AIR
MODELS DROP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS IT SPREADS
SOUTH.

WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA MAY APPROACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR A SHORT TIME LATE THIS MORNING BUT MAIN AXIS OF
STRONGER WINDS AT 925MB THEN SHIFTS TO THE EAST BY AFTERNOON.
BY FRIDAY MORNING BOTH ETA AND GFS HAVE 0C 850 ISOTHERM ALONG NORTHERN
NEBRASKA BORDER WITH ETA MORE AGGRESSIVE IN MOVING THE SHALLOW COLD
AIR SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SINCE ETA USUALLY HANDLES THIS
SHALLOW COLD AIR BEST...HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD A COOLER
SOLUTION FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ALTHOUGH NOT AS EXTREME AS ETA
WOULD SUGGEST. THE QUESTION OF SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL BE IMPORTANT
ON SATURDAY AS AREA OF QPF DEVELOPS AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE AND NORTH OF
SURFACE BOUNDRY. SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LIKELY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME WITH MIXED PRECIP PROBABLE. FOR NOW HAVE
LIMITED FREEZING OR BELOW TO NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA WITH
MENTION OF SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN THERE...A MIX IN CENTRAL SECTIONS
AND RAIN SOUTHEAST. AFTER A BREAK ON SUNDAY...PATTERN AGAIN BECOMES
ACTIVE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP EXPECTED AS EXTENDED MODELS
BRING MAIN WAVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. MORE THAN
LIKELY THE SHALLOW LAYER OF COLD AIR SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME WITH BOTH GFS AND 00Z/30 ECMWF GENERALLY KEEPING
SURFACE BOUNDRY SOUTH OF THE AREA WHICH MAY RESULT IN MORE MIXED
PRECIP FOR THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.

[Guest]

Thanks agian Captian Crunch..but do you think you could give me your opinion in your own words?

[wx247]

Map has freezing line too far south, especially east of the Mississippi River. Looks like you will get some precip. out of this next week. Craig, it is far too early to talk realistically about accumulations at this point --- other than ballpark figures. I think someone will end up with a significant icestorm. Where that happens is still to be determined.

[Guest]

Keep us updated

[CaptinCrunch]

Thanks agian Captian Crunch..but do you think you could give me your opinion in your own words?

Craig,

It's best to check your local NWS first for info, then ask Questions after the fact.

I have been studing the lastest models GFS, ETA, EURO on both the MRF and LRF to get the best possible solution for the Central Plains and I think you will see a mix (rain/ice/lt snow) across your CWA this weekend.

The GFS does not handel the shallow cold air and the ETA does over do it, so your local NWS has it stated pretty well with it's forecast.

I know your learning and asking questions is a good thing, I would read up on what other SK2 forecasters are saying and follow along by looking at the models (I know you know where to look) and make notes as to what the weather is really doing in your area compared to all the info you have collected, that will help you better understand how weather patterns take shape and give you a better since on your forecasting for others.

[Guest]

What the Event next week??

[wxguy25]

There WILL be some ZRA/IP porblems in the OV and Northeast form this event BUT I don't think it will get to this extreme.

First call map will be out this evening.

[Guest]

Are you from Wxrisk by any chance??? And what are you expecting for Eastern NEbraska??

[wxguy25]

Are you from Wxrisk by any chance???

No