It is looking like we will begin to see snow and cold temperatures starting Friday night, and at this point lasting all the way out to at least Day 15 or 16 (although, the GFS and other models are very inconsistent that far out).
After this weekend's snow and cold temperatures, the High's for the Seattle Metro Area look to be 30-35 or lower (especially if we get a lot of snow this weekend), for at least all of next week, with another shot of Arctic air looking likely for Tuesday. After this, the temperatures will likely remain in the 20's for highs and lows in the teens and 20's. This sets up for a perfect monster snowstorm next Thursday and Friday, possibly extending into next Saturday as well. The GFS and several other models have been holding this event steady for the past few days, so it looks to be likely, especially since cold air will already be in place.
I will post updates as these events get closer.
Tremendous cold spell possible in the Pacific NW
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
New NWS discussion out...
THE NEW 12Z GFS SOLUTION JUST IN...AND IT LOOKS RATHER CHILLY
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE W...AND
THE GFS DIGS MORE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WWD ACROSS THE AREA. H850 TEMPS
FALL BELOW -10C AND STRONG NE GRADIENTS CONTINUE. THE EARLY NEXT WEEK
PERIOD MAY NEED TO BE UPDATED THIS AFTERNOON TO INDICATE MORE COOLING.
THINGS COULD ALSO GET MORE INTERESTING NEXT WEEK AS SOME MODELS
UNDERCUT THE PAC HIGH AND BRING MOISTURE INTO PLAY. LOOKS LIKE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER. MERCER
THE NEW 12Z GFS SOLUTION JUST IN...AND IT LOOKS RATHER CHILLY
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE W...AND
THE GFS DIGS MORE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WWD ACROSS THE AREA. H850 TEMPS
FALL BELOW -10C AND STRONG NE GRADIENTS CONTINUE. THE EARLY NEXT WEEK
PERIOD MAY NEED TO BE UPDATED THIS AFTERNOON TO INDICATE MORE COOLING.
THINGS COULD ALSO GET MORE INTERESTING NEXT WEEK AS SOME MODELS
UNDERCUT THE PAC HIGH AND BRING MOISTURE INTO PLAY. LOOKS LIKE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER. MERCER
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chadtm80
We are starting to get a light east wind, which is really helping to hold our temperatures down in the mid-30's this morning (currently 35, after a official high of 37 here on the East Hill of Kent). Some places may even be seeing some light snow at the moment (North Bend, Issaquah, ect.), going by the current Kiro 7 Radar (http://www.kirotv.com/wxmap/1868043/detail.html). 
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W13 wrote:R-Dub wrote:Looks indeed like we will finally see winter weather again! I was starting to think we would never see it again
Hey, I am Justin in the PNW thread. Glad you made it over here.
I thought you were either Justin, or snowwizzard
Anyway I'm glad to be here, and glad we are going to get cold
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THE PATTERN STILL LOOKS TO BECOME COMPLICATED BEGINNING FRI NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW ALONG OF THE PAC NW
COAST TO BECOME RE-ENERGIZED BY ENERGY DIVING SWD OFF THE B.C.
COAST. THIS HELPS TO DEEPEN THE SYSTEM AND ENTRAIN EVEN COLDER AIR
ALOFT. THE OTHER SOURCE OF COOLING WILL COME FROM COLD CANADIAN AIR
SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY SWD TOWARDS THE WA BORDER. THE ETA AND GFS
CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH OF THIS LOW LEVEL AIR WILL BE
FORCED THROUGH THE FRASER. SOME OUTFLOW IS ALREADY OCCURRING WITH
KBLI-KYWL UP TO -13 MB OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE COLD
AIR DOES NOT APPEAR DEEP ENOUGH UNTIL SAT TO BEGIN SEEPING
THROUGH. THE ETA HAS BEEN THROWN OUT AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS IT
CONTINUES TO POORLY ANALYZE THE PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF THE HIGH OVER
THE YUKON. THE RESULT IS THAT THE COLD AIR IS NEVER BROUGHT SOUTH
OF THE BORDER EVEN E OF THE CASCADES WHICH SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY
GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN. LATEST MODEL ANALYSIS AND HPC
DISCUSSIONS AGREE...WITH THE GFS THE PREFERRED MODEL. THE MM5-GFS
REMAINS THE BULLISH OF THE MODELS...BRINGING IN THE LOW LEVEL COLD
STARTING FRI NIGHT. IT IMPLIES LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FALL OFF ENOUGH FOR
SNOW IN WHATCOM COUNTY BY SAT AM...DRAINING DOWN TO SEA BY SAT
AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE TOO FAST AND OVERDONE...BUT GRADIENTS
SUGGEST SOME OF THIS MODIFIED ARCTIC SHOULD GET DOWN TO SEA BY LATER
IN THE WEEKEND. MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE WORDING OF PCPN SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. WENT AHEAD AND TOOK THE MIDDLE ROAD...MENTIONING A
CHANCE OF SOME SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN DOWN TO SEA/TAC SAT
NIGHT/SUN. ALSO INDICATED MAINLY SNOW FOR WHATCOM COUNTY DURING
THIS PERIOD. NOW...THE OTHER PROBLEM IS DETERMINING HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT. THE ETA IS NOT ONLY THE WARMEST BUT THE
WETTEST OF THE MODELS. ON THE OTHER HAND THE PREFERRED GFS SOLUTION
KEEPS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE S AND W OF THE CWA WITH COLDER OFFSHORE
FLOW. AGAIN...THE GFS IS PREFERRED BUT WITH THE SFC LOW REFORMING
SO CLOSE THE THE S WA COAST IT DOES SEEM LIKE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
PCPN IS LIKELY. WON`T MESS WITH THE LIKELY POPS AT THIS TIME...BUT
HIGH END CHANCE MIGHT BE A LITTLE MORE APPROPRIATE. AT THIS
POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOW QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED WILL PRECLUDE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY LOW LAND ACCUMULATION IF IT DOES GET COLD
ENOUGH TO SNOW.
ALL MODELS TAKE THE UPPER LOW FAR ENOUGH S ON SUN AFTERNOON TO BEGIN
DRYING THE AIRMASS OVER WRN WA. AS THE LOW PULLS OUT...MODELS
NOSE THE RIDGE INTO B.C. WHICH SHOULD HOLD THE COLD HIGH BANKED UP
ALONG THE CANADIAN ROCKIES/CASCADES. THE COLD AIR WILL PROBABLY BE
DEEP ENOUGH AT THIS POINT FOR MODIFIED ARCTIC TO SWEEP INTO MOST OF
WRN WA. HAVE TRENDED THE TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE MORE DEGREES WITH MOST
AREAS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 30S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS GETTING INTO THE
20S. LONG RANGE MODELS INSIST ON KEEPING THE COLD/DRY PATTERN PLACE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS DIVERGE WED AND BEYOND WITH
SOME SOLUTIONS BRINGING ENERGY THROUGH THE RIDGE INTO OREGON/CA AND
OTHER SOLUTIONS KEEPING THE RIDGE INTACT. EVEN IF THE UNDER CUTTING
SOLUTION VERIFIES...THE MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY HEAD INTO OREGON AND
CA WITH WA. KEPT THE EXTENDED DRY. MERCER
INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW ALONG OF THE PAC NW
COAST TO BECOME RE-ENERGIZED BY ENERGY DIVING SWD OFF THE B.C.
COAST. THIS HELPS TO DEEPEN THE SYSTEM AND ENTRAIN EVEN COLDER AIR
ALOFT. THE OTHER SOURCE OF COOLING WILL COME FROM COLD CANADIAN AIR
SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY SWD TOWARDS THE WA BORDER. THE ETA AND GFS
CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH OF THIS LOW LEVEL AIR WILL BE
FORCED THROUGH THE FRASER. SOME OUTFLOW IS ALREADY OCCURRING WITH
KBLI-KYWL UP TO -13 MB OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE COLD
AIR DOES NOT APPEAR DEEP ENOUGH UNTIL SAT TO BEGIN SEEPING
THROUGH. THE ETA HAS BEEN THROWN OUT AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS IT
CONTINUES TO POORLY ANALYZE THE PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF THE HIGH OVER
THE YUKON. THE RESULT IS THAT THE COLD AIR IS NEVER BROUGHT SOUTH
OF THE BORDER EVEN E OF THE CASCADES WHICH SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY
GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN. LATEST MODEL ANALYSIS AND HPC
DISCUSSIONS AGREE...WITH THE GFS THE PREFERRED MODEL. THE MM5-GFS
REMAINS THE BULLISH OF THE MODELS...BRINGING IN THE LOW LEVEL COLD
STARTING FRI NIGHT. IT IMPLIES LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FALL OFF ENOUGH FOR
SNOW IN WHATCOM COUNTY BY SAT AM...DRAINING DOWN TO SEA BY SAT
AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE TOO FAST AND OVERDONE...BUT GRADIENTS
SUGGEST SOME OF THIS MODIFIED ARCTIC SHOULD GET DOWN TO SEA BY LATER
IN THE WEEKEND. MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE WORDING OF PCPN SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. WENT AHEAD AND TOOK THE MIDDLE ROAD...MENTIONING A
CHANCE OF SOME SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN DOWN TO SEA/TAC SAT
NIGHT/SUN. ALSO INDICATED MAINLY SNOW FOR WHATCOM COUNTY DURING
THIS PERIOD. NOW...THE OTHER PROBLEM IS DETERMINING HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT. THE ETA IS NOT ONLY THE WARMEST BUT THE
WETTEST OF THE MODELS. ON THE OTHER HAND THE PREFERRED GFS SOLUTION
KEEPS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE S AND W OF THE CWA WITH COLDER OFFSHORE
FLOW. AGAIN...THE GFS IS PREFERRED BUT WITH THE SFC LOW REFORMING
SO CLOSE THE THE S WA COAST IT DOES SEEM LIKE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
PCPN IS LIKELY. WON`T MESS WITH THE LIKELY POPS AT THIS TIME...BUT
HIGH END CHANCE MIGHT BE A LITTLE MORE APPROPRIATE. AT THIS
POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOW QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED WILL PRECLUDE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY LOW LAND ACCUMULATION IF IT DOES GET COLD
ENOUGH TO SNOW.
ALL MODELS TAKE THE UPPER LOW FAR ENOUGH S ON SUN AFTERNOON TO BEGIN
DRYING THE AIRMASS OVER WRN WA. AS THE LOW PULLS OUT...MODELS
NOSE THE RIDGE INTO B.C. WHICH SHOULD HOLD THE COLD HIGH BANKED UP
ALONG THE CANADIAN ROCKIES/CASCADES. THE COLD AIR WILL PROBABLY BE
DEEP ENOUGH AT THIS POINT FOR MODIFIED ARCTIC TO SWEEP INTO MOST OF
WRN WA. HAVE TRENDED THE TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE MORE DEGREES WITH MOST
AREAS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 30S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS GETTING INTO THE
20S. LONG RANGE MODELS INSIST ON KEEPING THE COLD/DRY PATTERN PLACE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS DIVERGE WED AND BEYOND WITH
SOME SOLUTIONS BRINGING ENERGY THROUGH THE RIDGE INTO OREGON/CA AND
OTHER SOLUTIONS KEEPING THE RIDGE INTACT. EVEN IF THE UNDER CUTTING
SOLUTION VERIFIES...THE MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY HEAD INTO OREGON AND
CA WITH WA. KEPT THE EXTENDED DRY. MERCER
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