Winter Forecast for North Texas

[CaptinCrunch]

FIRST OF NEXT WEEK (MON-TUE) WILL BE WET AS UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST
MOVES ONSHORE AND SHORT WAVE RIPPLES ENCOUNTER HIGH THETA-E AIR.

THE GFS SERIES SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON SURFACE/UPPER AIR
PATTERN NEXT WEEK AS WEST COAST TROUGH SWINGS INLAND. CURRENT UPPER
PATTERN FAVORS SURFACE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH/CENTRAL
PLAINS. WITH THE TROUGH FINALLY MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES AND
PRODUCING A DEEP SURFACE SYSTEM THAT EJECTS OUT TUESDAY...THE COLD
TRAPPED TO OUR NORTH WILL BE ALLOWED TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH
TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. HAVE ADJUST
EXTENDED TEMPS...WINDS AND SKY TO REFLECT THIS SOLUTION.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

The same GFS that had warm temps for Texas over a week out for the three days before Christmas. When will the Texas NWS offices finally get it thru their heads the GFS is horrible at predicting cold weather for Texas and for the South.


The GFS is as good as Fools gold in my book.

[aggiecutter]

This mornings EURO(0zrun) is now in agreement with the GFS.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... &cu=latest

[aggiecutter]

and hints at the beginning of the pattern change that should occur around mid-month.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... &cu=latest

Also checkout the long range Ensembles. Mid-month, they have a ridge east of the Caspian, strong cross polar flow, and a broad based trough centered over the plains into the midwest. Signs of the mid-month pattern change are starting to show-up on the long range models.

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 23000.html

[CaptinCrunch]

As I have Foreseen!!

[aggiecutter]

12z run of the Ensembles are really starting to amplify the trough in the central part of the country in the long range. It'll be interesting to see if the EURO starts trending this way in the next couple days.

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 23012.html

[CaptinCrunch]

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AS WINDS ALOFT DECOUPLE AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. WINDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER ON FRIDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND SO THE MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. FOR NOW IT
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACHES THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES
WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY. THE MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE REGION.

[CaptinCrunch]

As the west coast storm systems move eastward over the next week or so the central plains from N-Dakota down to Texas will see wetter weather and the central and northern plains, GL/Tenn/OV areas will see an increase in the snow cover just as the patteren change takes hold by Mid-January allowing the artic front's to maintain their dence artic air without much lost.

The Ice thats falling along the U.S/Canadian border will be replaced with snow by next week and will spread eastward as the cold wintery precip moves to the Northern and Central parts of the U.S. Also these west coast storm systems will help break down the Eastern Ridge by pushing it futher east and allow the colder air to move back in over the E and SE by mid month.

The LR models are showing signs of cross polor flow returning buy said time frame and the possibility of a Rex Block reforming off the Pacific Coast, this will allow the PV to slide back down over Southern half of the North Pole into Northern Canada setting up what I think will be a return of the "Mcfarland Effect" with sub-zero temps returning to the Central Plains. This will also effect the SJS by pushing it futher south allowing for mositure to be pulled up from the baja mexico and GOM.

[Stormcenter]

As the west coast storm systems move eastward over the next week or so the central plains from N-Dakota down to Texas will see wetter weather and the central and northern plains, GL/Tenn/OV areas will see an increase in the snow cover just as the patteren change takes hold by Mid-January allowing the artic front's to maintain their dence artic air without much lost.

The Ice thats falling along the U.S/Canadian border will be replaced with snow by next week and will spread eastward as the cold wintery precip moves to the Northern and Central parts of the U.S. Also these west coast storm systems will help break down the Eastern Ridge by pushing it futher east and allow the colder air to move back in over the E and SE by mid month.

The LR models are showing signs of cross polor flow returning buy said time frame and the possibility of a Rex Block reforming off the Pacific Coast, this will allow the PV to slide back down over Southern half of the North Pole into Northern Canada setting up what I think will be a return of the "Mcfarland Effect" with sub-zero temps returning to the Central Plains. This will also effect the SJS by pushing it futher south allowing for mositure to be pulled up from the baja mexico and GOM.

O.K. so what does this mean in english to us in the Houston area for next week and beyond?

[CaptinCrunch]

As the west coast storm systems move eastward over the next week or so the central plains from N-Dakota down to Texas will see wetter weather and the central and northern plains, GL/Tenn/OV areas will see an increase in the snow cover just as the patteren change takes hold by Mid-January allowing the artic front's to maintain their dence artic air without much lost.

The Ice thats falling along the U.S/Canadian border will be replaced with snow by next week and will spread eastward as the cold wintery precip moves to the Northern and Central parts of the U.S. Also these west coast storm systems will help break down the Eastern Ridge by pushing it futher east and allow the colder air to move back in over the E and SE by mid month.

The LR models are showing signs of cross polor flow returning buy said time frame and the possibility of a Rex Block reforming off the Pacific Coast, this will allow the PV to slide back down over Southern half of the North Pole into Northern Canada setting up what I think will be a return of the "Mcfarland Effect" with sub-zero temps returning to the Central Plains. This will also effect the SJS by pushing it futher south allowing for mositure to be pulled up from the baja mexico and GOM.

O.K. so what does this mean in english to us in the Houston area for next week and beyond?

Well it means that by the middle of January winter should return to the eastern 2/3rds of the country, this will also setup people across the south for a good chance of wintery precip.

[aggiecutter]

Captain, the 12z EURO has what is probably the beginning of the pattern you have outlined above. Canada is reloading with very cold air again in response to the ridge east of the Caspian. Couple that with the flip in the SOI and the western trough will progress out into the center of the country by mid-month. As you pointed out, the potential for severe cold is a real possibility for the southern plains by mid-month.

12Z EURO 8-10 day means

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... &cu=latest

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
415 AM CST MON JAN 3 2005

.DISCUSSION...
THE 10Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED TO THE
SOUTH OF A TULSA...TO WICHITA FALLS LINE. ONE OF THE FORECAST
HEADACHES FOR TODAY...IS HOW MUCH FARTHER WILL THE FRONT BE ABLE TO
MOVE GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING THAT SHOULD CAUSE IT TO STALL. HAVE
GONE WITH THE RUC...AND ALLOWED THE FRONT TO ONLY SINK SLIGHTLY
FARTHER SOUTH AND THEN GO STATIONARY JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF A
GAINESVILLE TO CISCO LINE. WITH BOTH GULF AND PACIFIC MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH...THE STORMS OF THE PAST 24 HOURS HAVE SHOWN THEIR
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN SHORT PERIODS OF TIME.
GIVEN THAT THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR US
TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS FOR TODAY. THE WET
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE
COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL FINALLY LIFT EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH ALL OF NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. COLDER...OKAY
REALLY NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN.

[CaptinCrunch]

Hazardous Weather Outlook

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
657 AM CST TUE JAN 4 2005

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-041900-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
657 AM CST TUE JAN 4 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

...A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...

...A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES...

...A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE TONIGHT...

A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES WILL ALLOW FOR
FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. MUCH COLDER
AIR IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES WHERE
FREEZING RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE
AND/OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS FOR FREEZING RAIN.

THE MUCH COLDER AIR WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WHERE THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO
FREEZING RAIN. A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT
FOR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES TONIGHT. CAUTION
IS ADVISED ON AREA LAKES TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM DALHART TO CLARENDON.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A WHEELER TO HAPPY LINE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE
PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HARARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

[CaptinCrunch]

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT...AND THROUGH
THE REST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY...AND THEN TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
WINDS TO RETURN TO THE SOUTH. THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING MAY BE INTERESTING...AS WARM ADVECTION MAY RESULT IN SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES.
THE ETA IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ZONES...WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. HAVE OPTED TO JUST LEAVE 10 PERCENT
POPS IN THIS AREA FOR NOW...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY.

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
354 AM CST WED JAN 5 2005

.DISCUSSION...
ARCTIC AIR MOVING FASTER THAN MODELS PLUS IT IS COLDER TOO. MODELS
ALSO WANT TO END PRECIP VERY SOON AFTER FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT
RADAR SHOWS PRECIP ABOUT 200 MILES BEHIND THE FRONT. THEREFORE WILL
HOLD PRECIP IN LONGER BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WITH STRONGER COOLING
THIS MEANS THAT THERE COULD BE A CHANGEOVER IN OUR NORTH THROUGH
WEST COUNTIES THIS MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIP IS WARM
PROCESS...WITH WARM NOSE WELL ABOVE THE FRONT...AND THUS INSTEAD OF
SNOW THIS LOOKS LIKE RAIN CHANGING TO POSSIBLY SLEET AND/OR FREEZING
RAIN. OF COURSE...THIS WILL BE WATCHED VERY CLOSELY FOR CHANGES TO
OUR SCENARIO.

ETA MOS IS MUCH COLDER THAN OTHERS...AND LEANED TOWARDS IT FOR LOW
TEMPS...WITH A BIT OF A HEAT ISLAND KEEPING THE METROPLEX IN THE MID
20S. IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY SUNNY WITH THE WINDS GETTING MUCH LIGHTER
ON THURSDAY...SO TICKED HIGHS UP NEAR 40 FOR METROPLEX...WITH 30S
NORTH AND MID 40S SOUTH. STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME PRECIP
EASTERN ZONES THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SOME OVERRUNNING
DEVELOPS...BUT IT SHOULD BE LIQUID.

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1005 AM CST WED JAN 5 2005

.UPDATE...
HAVE HAD SOME TIME NOW TO LOOK AT A FEW THINGS AND THE NEW 12Z
DATA. WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO TONE
DOWN SOME OF THE WORDING. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO KNIFE
UNDERNEATH THE WARMER AIR BUT WILL CAUSE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION TO END. SO DO NOT EXPECT VERY MUCH FZRA ACCUMULATION
AND GIVEN THE WARM GROUND TEMPS THERE WILL ONLY BE SOME MINOR ICE ON
ELEVATED SURFACES. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS
THE NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL CREATE SOME ICE PROBLEMS
WITH ANY STANDING WATER. WILL UPDATE ZONES AGAIN AROUND 11 AM OR
NOON TO ADJUST POPS OVER THE WEST AND WORDING ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE
FRONT IS STILL MOVING THROUGH. TR/92

&&

.840 AM UPDATE...
VERY COLD SURFACE AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE SOUTH WITH NEXT SLUG OF
COLD ADVECTION NOW MOVING SE ACROSS THE RED RIVER OUT OF WESTERN
OKLAHOMA INTO THE WICHITA FALLS AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO
FREEZING OVER THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AREA BETWEEN 10AM AND NOON
AS THIS AIR REACHES THE NW CWA. FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD
SHAPE...BUT HAVE UPDATED MAINLY FOR WORDING ISSUES AND ALSO DID
INCREASE POPS. BACK EDGE OF PRECIP WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN
CWA BY NOON AND SHOWED DECREASING POPS WEST. WILL LIKELY ISSUE AT
LEAST ONE MORE UPDATE FOR WORDING ISSUES ACROSS THE SOUTH ONCE FRONT
CLEARS THE CWA.

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
320 PM CST WED JAN 5 2005

.DISCUSSION...
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO INVADE NORTH TEXAS WITH FREEZING TEMPS NOW
MOVING INTO THE METROPLEX. RAIN IS SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST AND THE
FREEZE LINE WILL NOT CATCH UP WITH IT THIS EVENING. SOME VERY LIGHT
AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING
BUT THIS DOES NOT WARRANT AN EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY. COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUES TONIGHT AND WENT WITH THE COOLER GUIDANCE. THE
COLD ADVECTION AT 850 MB IS PRETTY WEAK CONSIDERING THE SURFACE
TEMPS. WITH CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS WILL SHOW SOME
CORRELATION TO THE 850 MB TEMPS WHICH ARE MUCH WARMER TO THE SOUTH.
OVERCAST EXPECTED TO HAVE SOME BREAKS BY SUNRISE DUE TO CONTINUING
ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE.

FAST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW DOWNSLOPING SUBSIDENCE TO RAPIDLY
MODERATE TEMPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES TOMORROW SO COLD ADVECTION
WILL END. NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SW
THURSDAY NIGHT AND CREATE A ROUND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. MOST OF THE
RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. THERE MAY BE
SOME CONCERN WITH MIXED PRECIP INITIALLY ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS
SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S WITH SOME ROOM FOR
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. DUE TO STRONG WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE
SURFACE...TEMPS SHOULD RISE DURING THE NIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WARMING THE SURFACE VIA LONGWAVE RADIATION. LATER
SHIFTS CAN CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

THE CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE EAST WILL DEPART BY SATURDAY MORNING
AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH. GENERALLY MILD AND TRANQUIL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WED. GFS PAINTS A LITTLE PRECIP OVER US
ON MONDAY BUT NOT GOING TO JUMP ON THIS YET. MEX GUIDANCE FOLLOWED
FOR TEMPS EXCEPT WE WENT WARMER FOR TUE-WED DUE TO PROLONGED
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

This is what I have been watching for the last 2 days and have been talking about!!

FINALLY...THERE IS UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT IN THE
GLOBAL MODELS THAT BY DAY 6-7 THE COLDEST AIR SEEN THIS SEASON WILL
BE POOLING IN WESTERN CANADA AS AN ARCTIC HIGH FROM SIBERIA TRACKS
ACROSS ALASKA. MODELS DISAGREE ON WHEN/WHETHER THIS AIRMASS WILL BE
HEADING SOUTH LATE NEXT WEEK...SO STAY TUNED THIS IS ONE TO WATCH.

[aggiecutter]

That Siberian High will slide right down the front range of the Rockies into the southern plains by late next week or early in the weekend. It's coming. Everyone had better get ready for it.

Day 8-10 EURO means.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... &cu=latest

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
335 PM CST FRI JAN 7 2005

.DISCUSSION...
STRATUS CONTINUES MOVING EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...AS DOWNSLOPING
COMPONENT TO LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVERSPREADS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
WEST. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT--ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND
OF TWO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS--IS MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AT THIS TIME.
WITH STRONGEST UPPER FORCING EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE RED
RIVER...WE WILL FOLLOW A BLEND OF THE ETA/GFS/NGM AND KEEP STRATUS
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AFTER ANOTHER COOL NIGHT...RETURN FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY...IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED WESTERLY FLOW
IN THE MID-LEVELS AND SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ALONG THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES.

SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT...WILL NOT MAKE A
SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHWARD PENETRATION INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AND...
GIVEN LOWER 70F DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY REPORTED AT SEVERAL
BUOYS OFF THE GULF COAST...THIS WILL ULTIMATELY SET THE STAGE FOR
STRONG/DEEP MOISTURE RETURN BY SUNDAY. WE HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN ZONES
ON SUNDAY...AS WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT VIA LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR ALONG WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE VALUES. WE EXPECT
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH WE WILL MENTION THUNDER BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
THERE WILL BE PERHAPS LESS COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY...AS
VEERED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW RESULTS IN MORE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.
GIVEN SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT
FLUCTUATE MUCH THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND WILL FOLLOW OR SLIGHTLY
EXCEED MEX NUMBERS.

BY WEDNESDAY...YET ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE POISED TO MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD BE AT
LEAST AS COLD AS THOSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUS FRONT. ALTHOUGH
IS IS STILL A BIT TOO FAR TO WORK OUT THE FINE DETAILS...THE 07/00Z
GFS AND ECMWF ARE GENERALLY IN LINE WITH THE 12Z GFS IN BRINGING THE
FRONT RAPIDLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WE WILL
ADVERTISE CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND MUCH
COLDER WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

[aggiecutter]

This very well could be the coldest air mass since 89'. Looks like the GFS is finally starting to catch on. This is a classic direct discharge of Siberian air into the state of Texas.

18z GFS

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _168.shtml