For Those Saying Winter is Over

[jetstream]

ITS NOT!!!!!!!!



NYC Forecast Discussion

28.December.2004
Forecasting a Permanent Pattern Change: Warm, then cold…and stormy??

Good Evening everybody. This discussion is long, detailed, and informative, and will show you my opinions on the EXTREMELY important events that will take place over the next few weeks. These events will bring us into the January Thaw, and then back into the full force of winter. In the following discussion, I will summarize the events that will occur, and my projected timeframe for the events.
First, lets talk about the events that have occurred over the past week or so. A storm moved up through the Appalachians and brought areas in the Midwest such as Ohio and Kentucky up to 15 or more inches of snowfall. This storm gave us rain, as it was an inland runner. After that, a storm moved through the gulf coast, and brought areas such as Corpus Christi, Texas their first measurable snowfall since 1989. The snow swath stretched all the way to Louisiana with some areas in Texas seeing over 10 INCHES OF SNOW!. This storm headed straight for the north Carolina coast, and partially phased with another low coming in from the great lakes, and began to move up the eastern seaboard. Things got complicated from there. There were way to many things going against this storm. To name some, there was no –NAO, there was no 50/50, and there was no blocking. The storm did not have much moisture to work with either. You would think that this storm would go RIGHT out to sea, but the trough was tilted JUST negatively enough, and that brought it close enough to the coast to bring Long Island heavy snowfall (around 10 inches), New York City moderate snowfall (around 3 inches) and points west of that light snowfall(3 inches or less). There was a heavy band of snow that moved through New Jersey that did up amounts a bit, but this storm was still way to far out to sea to bring our area a significant snowfall. On the other hand, Boston was handed over 14 inches of snow, and are now buried in it for the long winter break. A late Christmas present from Santa.
I know that many people are mad, or unhappy about this winter and some are calling it a jinx and saying that winter always goes against us. Folks, you have to realize that the pattern we were in was just NOT good enough for snow. The STORMS were there, but the conditions in which they encountered were not good enough. On the 4 storms we had a chance with, 2 were inland runners, and the other two had similar problems. No –NAO, no blocking, and no 50/50. With that in mind, the storms were banking on the negative tilt to bring them up the coast, and that’s not enough. The neg. tilt itself cannot materialize a storm into a major snowstorm for our area.
Things will continue to go downhill for a short more amount of time, because the first trough axis is setting up right along the west coast. This will allow for the secondary axis to form along the Midwest, and put us in a temporary warm spell for early January. This is known to many as the January Thaw. From Early January to around January 10th, Temperatures will be from 5-8 degrees above the months normal, and weather will be quiet, except for the occasional rain shower. People are seeing this on model guidance and hearing it from professionals, or just forecasters in general, and are going nuts. Let me state one thing. WINTER IS BY NO MEANS OVER. With that in mind, we will move on along to the pattern breaker. This pattern breaker will change us into a winter pattern for good.
Around the 10th-12th of January I expect a Major Low pressure area to track somewhere in the Midwest or near the Appalachians. This low may very well bring a major ice, or snowstorm to someone in the Midwest. With Detroit, Chicago, and St. Louis, all being valid possibility’s. The low will bring us in the east a major rainstorm. But wait, this is a catch 22. As this low tracks north, it set up what most people have been waiting to hear. This low will do EVERYTHING we need, and EVERYTHING we haven’t had this whole winter. It will not only set up the 50/50, but it will also set up Greenland blocking, and MOST IMPORTANTLY and folks I STRESS MOST IMPORTANTLY an amplified western ridge, eastern trough, and it will EASE THE PACIFIC JETSTREAM.
By the 15th of January I expect winter in the east to be in FULL SWING…with the NAO stuck in neg. and the trough in the east. As I stressed before that is IMPORTANT for winter to be in full lockdown. This will allow for MUCH colder temperatures, and a MUCH MORE FAVORABLE STORM TRACK. In other words, for instance…the storm that we had over the weekend…if it was to happen after Jan 15th, we would have seen a SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. Why?? Because the –NAO would have been negative, the trough would have been amplified, and the Greenland blocking and 50/50 low would have been in full effect. Therefore, more storms will track up the coast, and give us a more favorable situation for snowfall.
In summary, the next 5-9 days will feature a January thaw, with temps moderating, and conditions calming. Then, a Major Midwest snowstorm. The storm heads north, 50/50, Greenland block, and –NAO follow. Following that, the trough locks in the east, and this allows for a MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW. Winter is not over, by any means. In a sense, its just about to begin.

JM

[boca]

I know you live in New Jersey,but what affect will this setup have for Florida?

[ssom04]

I wanna point one thing out that winter is pretty much just getting started around the Northern Plains with talk about 2 pretty decent snowstorms maybe 4-6 from each one would be a reasonable guess right now.....

[weatherlover427]

[Tornado_Chaser2005]

lol duh winter isnt over, it started just over a week ago! geez, come on to people that think its over. Can we forecast the next 2 months accuratly? no we can't and alot will change probably. just have to wait it out and see. I have a feeling that we will haev a very big snow storm in feburary for the eastern 2 thirds of the country, dont know, just a feeling.

[weatherlover427]

I agree with ssom04 and Tornado_Chaser. There is no reasonable way you can say winter is over when the season is barely 9-10 days old. Now if it was late January or early February then it may be different. But not now.

[IWXSkywarndork]

Well, most mets consider Dec. 1 the beginning of winter instead of the winter solstice, so winter is actually a month old.

The people who are crying about winter being over (NYC?) are my back yarders. Just because they haven't had any appreciable snowfall yet, and see this "January thaw" for the next few days, they start yelling, "The sky is falling!"

I have lived in Indiana all of my life (47 yrs.), so I've seen my variety of weather. I don't know how many winters, just when I had given up on it, we get dumped on, I mean hammered. It more than makes up for the rest of the 'blah' winter.

Yes, some winters, where ever you are located, you will get below average snow totals. I think some people feel they should receive 6" every week, even though with their climotology, it's not going to happen.

To close the ramblings of a hobbyist, everybody be patient, you'll get yours. And if you don't, there is always next year. ( The advice of a Cubs fan).

Butch

[weatherlover427]

Well, most mets consider Dec. 1 the beginning of winter instead of the winter solstice, so winter is actually a month old. ...

I never understood why they do this, when naturally it begins 3 weeks later...

[IWXSkywarndork]

I never understood why they do this, when naturally it begins 3 weeks later...

I believe it has to do with climotology. Something about the fact that winter weather actually begins in most areas of the country by then. The same with March 1st in the spring. Although there are areas where winter continues, most areas begin to see major pattern changes toward springtime weather by then.

Just something I remmember reading somewhere. Don't take that as gospel.

[KWT]

well I don't know what might happen,but tonights GFS looks VERY like the great spell of 47 for us here in the U.K,although its out in F.I.

I'm very hopeful that the Jet stream will slow,this will allow more northen blocking,also the NAO is gonna go negative,PNA postive,although I don't who will benifit from that,the east or west off the U.S...

As for a Greenland block,well it doesn't look as likely at the moment as a Scandi high(at least upto the 15th,altough afterwards it does become more favorable!!),which would suit me right down to the ground.

[michaelwmoss]

Taking into account that it is early February, I would say that at least one more major artic cold spell is in store with a couple of monster winter type storms as well. By the end of the month and beginning of March, this warmer air is going to become more dominant leading to more severe/spring like weather.