Lawrence Kansas Ideas

sertorius · #1 Postby **sertorius** » Wed Dec 29, 2004 3:58 pm

First off: Amazing: I actually have a cloud deck lower than 8,000 feet!!! It is actually cloudy today-not the stratus junk or high thin clouds, actual low level clouds!!! No rain and prob. won't have any (snow is not even in my vocabulary this month!!) this week, but it has capped our temps. 10 degrees below forcast-we are at 50 expected to hit 62. (Did get alot colder last night-got to 26 and were only expected to drop to 35-dry air does amazing things!!) Thoughts from a Latin teacher/weather enthusist next week for my area if anyone cares: we will finally get something falling from the sky(by Saturday actually) and temps. will eventually head back to normal which is around 40 degrees (we never average below 32 here-one reason winter is always a gamble) so that is a good thing-we have gone 3 weeks w/out any moisture of any kind. The GFS has us with precip untill Wed. with all rain accept wrap around snows-the gfs of course had us with a chance of ice or snow on Monday /Tuesday-now it is trended to the model I should have known to stick with: the EURO-the euro does not have the 0 line close to us untill Wed. and it also keeps the low further south and not as fast-will be interesting to see what it has for next Thursday as far as 500/slp and the 850 temps. If I had to put out the forcast I would say 40's with rain thru Thursday with a chance of wrap around snow-the person who is totally bored with his weather is still holding out hope for the MRF to verify. Fact is, we are still 6 days away and there is cold air bleeding south-so there is still a chance (and really, after this month that is all I ask!!) that it could get colder here by early next week. EURO and GFS do show it much colder by the weekend but with limited moisture and then moderating again next week-of course the GFS has another massive arctic out break and snow storm for me 14 days from now-can a blind squerell find a nut?? Sorry to clog up the board, but I just wanted to throw this out.

#2 Postby **wx247** » Wed Dec 29, 2004 4:02 pm

You aren't clogging up the board. I always enjoy reading what you have to say.

We shall see what the next week brings. At least it will be more active than this past month.

sertorius · #3 Postby **sertorius** » Wed Dec 29, 2004 4:13 pm

Thanks wx247!! Another amazing development: we even have some sort of liquid falling from the sky-what could it be???

Just kidding-we've had a low level cloud deck develop from some moisture comming from the gulf-you can really see it on the sat. it is causing a little bit of mist with temps. dropping back to the upper 40's. I'm sure I'll post more about the up comming week

#4 Postby **simplykristi** » Wed Dec 29, 2004 4:27 pm

The low clouds have made it here to my area. It was mostly sunny earlier. Now it is cloudy.

Kristi

sertorius · #5 Postby **sertorius** » Wed Dec 29, 2004 10:17 pm

It looks like a pretty good certainty now that the Sunday/Monday event will be rain for Lawrence-the euro, to me, is interesting-it is tracking a low much farther south than the gfs-the euro has a 1011 low moving thru Southern Kansas just south of Wichita on Wednesday-while the 0 line is North of me, this is a perfect location for me to get good rain/snow/ice this time of year. If the low moves slow enough and is still in Sourthern Missouri by Thursday morning, I could see some back lash snows(ironically the gfs shows this as well but the low is much further north) It will be interesting to see what happens with future runs. Both the GFS and EURO return this area to winter like temps. by Thursday/Friday-will there be moisture? The gfs wants to suppress the pattern and I think it is over doing the cold thus, next Friday/Saturday could be interesting as well-lots to discuss and bore you with!!

aggiecutter · #6 Postby **aggiecutter** » Wed Dec 29, 2004 10:55 pm

yoda · #7 Postby **yoda** » Thu Dec 30, 2004 12:52 am

[quote="aggiecutter"][/quote]

Um... aggiecutter... did you delete what you wrote? Or... what happened? It just looks weird... :lol:

sertorius · #8 Postby **sertorius** » Thu Dec 30, 2004 7:55 am

Aggiecutter that is perfect-a blank post just about sums my weather up perfectly!!! Not even enough to comment on

Well the gfs has really backed off of anything for here for next week-our best chance of precip comes on Sunday and that will be rain-I'll take it-we need it so bad!!! Both the euro and gfs really cool us off by Wed-below normal temps actually. The difference: the euro has the low tracking thru Northern Ark. on Thursday at 1011 and has the 0 line well thru my area-that could give us some snow or frozen precip if the precip shield is big enough-we have had good snows esp. in Kansas City from this track (I'd say that central Missouri to St. Louis could get something from this) The gfs tracks the low much further north and gives us a chance of back lash snows-will be interesting to see if the gfs trends further south in the next couple of days. Additionaly, the euro has a high centered in western kansas-that could affect things a bit. Ironically, the GFS wants to begin a warm up starting Saturday into next week and keep it mild-the euro is much colder on the weekend than the gfs-also the gfs has lost our Saturday storm. One more thing: the eta brings the 0 line closer to us Sunday night with a bit of precip left. My long range for grins: Rain sunday/sunday night(possibly mixed w/ a bit of freezing rain overnight-Monday-Wed. dry with temps. in the 40's-Wed. rain into wed. night with the possibility of changing to snow/sleet wed. night and lt. snow Thursday morning-highs Thursday in the 20's. I'll crash and burn on this for sure, but we'll see what happens. Colder for the weekend with a chance that storm cuts to the south of me. Don't laugh to hard!!! Currently at 6:30 AM: windy temps. in the mid 50's-will be warm thru Saturday with today approaching 70 and winds gusting to 35 MPH!!!

sertorius · #9 Postby **sertorius** » Thu Dec 30, 2004 8:09 am

One more quick note: the 06z gfs has trended the low further south more in line with the euro and now has some good precip over me with the 0 line thru here for Wed. Let the games begin-I'm sticking with the EURO as by Saturday the gfs will prob. have this puppy all the way to Brownsville!!! We at least have a chance for next week!!

sertorius · #10 Postby **sertorius** » Thu Dec 30, 2004 3:59 pm

Just a quick note: Incredibly windy (gusts to 40MPH-oh look there goes toto by my window!!) and hot today-temps in the low 70's with a dew point of 41 degrees-yuck!!! Keep the dryer affect comming!!! Quick thought about next week: too early to make any real calls, but I am following the EURO's idea of a more southern track-I think the GFS will come that way as it alreadsy has begun to do so-why: well the gfs trended towards the euro for the Sunday event-I also think we get enough of a push from that high in Canada to push the low further south-the euro also shows another low on the heels of this one-a def. intersting week next week-what a roller coaster: last Thursday 9 degrees for the high/today we break a record high with 72 degrees/next Thursday we're talking a possible winter storm/the Thursday after that another blow torch!!

sertorius · #11 Postby **sertorius** » Thu Dec 30, 2004 9:07 pm

I'll tell ya-it is storms like the one for Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday that make me glad I don't have to put out a long range product and stick to it-the gfs is still holding to a Northern track putting me and even Omaha in mostly rain-the 12z euro today is, to me, funky: it slows down the low but pushes it a bit further south into central Arkansas-well i would think if the low was being pushed south, then the colder air would be pushing south suppressing the system-but now for Thursday, the 0 line is not even thru Omaha Nebraska so i would get all rain thru Thursday. it also has a High centered over Missouri?? Of course, why am I even posting about this since it is still 5-6 days out and there is no way to tell for sure-well frankly my dear I'm so bored with our weather (it's 8:00 P.M. and my temp is still at 60 degrees :eek:

) that I finally have a chance at something for the first time since Thanksgiving and I'm tired of writing syllabi and making PowerPoints for my classes!! So I apologize if I'm driving people crazy-but this could, if all the cards fall right, be a pretty good winter storm for the central plains-esp. for an area that hasn't seen much of anything since Novemeber!!

#12 Postby **simplykristi** » Fri Dec 31, 2004 12:57 am

We've not had any real precip since the snow after Thanksgiving. I am ready for one big storm this winter.

Kristi

sertorius · #13 Postby **sertorius** » Fri Dec 31, 2004 7:40 am

Simplykristi:

I don't think we're going to get this week-at least not in the Tuesday-Wed. storm-we will get some good rain the next 4 days (which we desp. need so Ican't complain) but it just doesn't look like the cold air will really make it this far south-possibly some wrap around lt. snow on Thursday. GFS is hinting at something next weekend-has for the past 3 runs-but I'm not even going there!! It is still early in the game and things can change-right now though, I would go for all rain this week untill Thursday. But, there is a storm and there is cold air in our regioon so there is always a chance!!! One other interesting point: the euro does develop a low around the 4 conrnors on Wed. and zip it south of me Wed. night into Thursday into Ohio-could this be something?? The GFS has it all gone by Thursday and again much further north-not much of a chance, but I guess there is still one.

sertorius · #14 Postby **sertorius** » Fri Dec 31, 2004 8:15 am

One other thought here: The euro is still developing a low in southern colorado on Wednesday and tracks it to Ohio on Thursday-the euro and gfs also both have the 0 line thru me on Thursday-this looks to be my one shot at frozen precip. for about 2 weeks as both models begin to warm things up by Saturday (yea the gfs already lost the supp. snow for next weekend) I'm still not convinced everything will come together and this really looks like a Nebraska/Iowa event but, there is a chance for Thursday per the euro-the gfs has some wrap around chances Thursday. If the euro is correct on the 850 0 line, then the cold air over whelms the sw flow for a time-this is our window of opportunity here in Lawrence/Kansas City. I guess what I'm trying to say, long winded as I am, is that euro still gives me a chance for Thursday. Can the pattern be knocked down here for a time and a low track correctly-we shall see. Again, good luck to everyone in Nebraska and Iowa-you are going to under the gun for this week!!! 8-)

(my 5 year old son picked this face!!!!)

#15 Postby **wx247** » Fri Dec 31, 2004 9:25 am

simplykristi wrote:We've not had any real precip since the snow after Thanksgiving. I am ready for one big storm this winter.

Kristi

Regardless of precip. type over the next 5 days... it is going to get very wet!!!

sertorius · #16 Postby **sertorius** » Fri Dec 31, 2004 9:30 am

wx247:

Indeed it is-our best chances of precip. per the gfs is saturday/Sunday and Tuesday-the gfs takes the low right over to of me so we could see some really good rain-we need it in the worst way!!!! I'd like a snow storm, but I'll take the rain-besides, my students are much more attentive in Jan. when it is cloudy as opposed to sunny and 55 so thanks to Mother Nature, my first week back to school may not be so rough!!!

sertorius · #17 Postby **sertorius** » Sat Jan 01, 2005 8:06 am

Good Morning everyone!!! To be sure all the focus for the next 72 hours should be in Northern Plains-good luck to everyone and stay safe!! I'm at a friends house and must type quickly-kids are waking up!!! I just wanted to say real quick that the latest model runs look better for the Lawrence area getting some frozen precip. on late Wed./Thursd. This could all change, but it sure looks better than it did yesterday-the front has passed our area-not cold yet, but the cold air is seeping down-again things do look better as of now!!! Have a great day everyone and Happy New Year: I'll still keep me at 30% chance of frozen precip as the models will still waffel-but, it seems things are comming better together for this area mid week!!!

sertorius · #18 Postby **sertorius** » Sat Jan 01, 2005 11:06 pm

Well I'm back-I'm sure everyone is thrilled!!! Currently I am at 61 degrees-150 miles to my North and West it is 32!!!!! The euro and the eta are my friends-the euro still has the low tracking thru Southern Kansas and Northern Arkansas mid week. The 0z eta for Wednesday has the 0 line all the way down to southern Kansas with pretty good moisture over us for about 12 hours-I'm color blind as a bat but the way I'm seeing it, the eta has me getting about .50 inch of liquid with the 850 temps at about minus 8 to minus 10-that could equal about 3-4 inches of snow/sleet/freezing rain-while not huge for many areas, for this area that is a pretty good storm. The gfs is much weaker with this system and out NWS is following that. They do not believe the cold air will make it this far-that is a good call-it is one thing for me to sit here and speculate, but they have to put out a product that people depend on and there is no reason to throw out wild scenarios. There discussion tomorrow may be different-of course the whole situation could be different as we are still 4 days out-but, we are back in the game!!!!

sertorius · #19 Postby **sertorius** » Sun Jan 02, 2005 12:57 am

The rain is moving from the south west to the north east-the front has stalled north of Topeka for the time being-the rain has not made any southward progress in the last 2 hours!! Still 61 here; 30 just to my north west!!!

#20 Postby **simplykristi** » Sun Jan 02, 2005 1:26 am

It is still around 60 here. It will be interesting to see what happens in the next few days.

Kristi.. who heads back to work on Monday

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