A question for wxguy25, Donsutherland1......

[sertorius]

Please be patient with me here as I am asking a question about my area specifically in regards to the SE ridge and the trough in the west. This is my thought: I am being affected by the SE ridge in two ways 1. the ridge itself is close enough to me 2. the trough in the west in response to this is throwing a massive sw flow over my house-thus, when pieces of energy eject off the main trough and come out into the Rockies etc. don't they have to take a more Northern track in response to that ridge-i.e. they can't really go directly east because they hit the ridge-I'm imagining the "ring of fire" that develops here in the summer when we get the massive high pressure systems over us that take all the thunderstorms up and over the ridge and way North of us. Thus, it is nearly impossible for us to get really cold air, similar to heat waves in the summer, or a storm track that travels south and east enough to get a good storm. Am I making any sense here-I am really going way beyond my limited knowledge of weather here. In this pattern, for us to get any winter precip, cold air would have to seep down and be strong enough to shove the ridge affects back south and east-for snow, it would have to be deep enough to over take the sw flow-most likely we would have ice-but this pattern seems really tough to have this happen. If you can understand any of this or have time I would appreciate a response-I'm just trying to get a handle on my weather for the next couple of weeks(my students always ask me and I give model break downs during History class) and possibly go beyond just model reading. Thanks again in advance.

[wxguy25]

Anyway to answer the rest of your question --- the SE ridge is not a bad thing for you WRT to winter weather potential as it is for the east. What you are describing w/ the ridge in the east/trough in the west is known as an RNA pattern. The storm track is from the SW US to the western lakes region which means that s/w energy travels right through the Midwest into the lakes region and SE Canada where they begin to dampen (weaken) in the strong confluent flow over SE Canada.

If the storm track is to the east of you, then there is a good chance that you will see wintry precip; providing that your location is close enough to the 500mb s/w, 700mb, 850mb and SLP area to generate enough lift over your region to develop clouds and precipitation.

A large high over the upper Midwest/ south central Canada can cause low level arctic air to undercut a warm layer aloft resulting in icing situations for the Midwest much like it can do for areas east of the Appalachians in the Mid Atlantic and Northeast.

Basically it’s all about the synoptic (large scale) setup (location/orientation of ridges and troughs) and what effect it will have on the mean storm track.

Another good situation for the Southern Plains is a moderately strong STJ interacting with a strong arctic airmass and undercutting upstream blocking pattern over the Northwest Atlantic. This way s/w energy is suppressed somewhat. It can’t lift out b/c the blocking is there so it has to go around it.

[sertorius]

wxguy25:
Thanks for the response-I know it didn't make a lot of sense-it just seems that the storm this week are tracking to far to the North and I was wondering if that was in response to the SE ridge some what. Sorry that was long winded-sometimes I'm not very good at making clear points!!! I have seen in the past where this set up did give us some pretty good storms-I just think that in this current set up I'm just a bit to far to the south. Thanks again for your response-I really appreciate you taking the time to answer the question and I really learned from it-again, I'm long winded!!!!

[donsutherland1]

Sertorius,

The SE ridge, while dreaded in most of the East, is not necessarily bad for your part of the Country. It does not necessarily flood you with warm air as it can do farther east.

The pattern is fairly progressive and the above normal height anomalies in the means that have been present across the Central USA should be shifting eastward in coming days. Therefore, the threat of more wintry weather should be growing at that point in time.

Have a great New Year!

[sertorius]

donsutherland1:

Thanks for the response-I wish I could write more, but I'm at a friends house using their lab tob and watching 4 kids run around!!!! I really aprreciate you and wxguy responding to me!!
I hope what I said in the original post made a little sense. Happy New Year to you as well!!