Ohio Valley Weather Discussion

[IndianaWxOnline]

Updated discussion on major ice storm later this week, as I can't concentrate on anything else but the weather, so you will probably be getting a lot of updates out of me the next several days.

But needless to say, as I continue to analyze new model data and new pattern data, the possibilities of a ice storm later this week across the Ohio Valley continue to increase, especially for the Central and Northern Ohio Vally. I have been getting a lot of emails from viewers that are asking why all the other forecasters, or at least most of them, are forecasting warmer temperatures with rain most of this week. Well, to some extent, I agree with those forecasters that it will be warm, especially on Monday and Tuesday and that rain will be likely on both of those days. The thing that I do not agree with, is that the rest of the week will be warm, because that low pressure area that moves through on Tuesday will help draw down a lot of lower layer cold air and this means that when the next area of low pressure moves down on Wednesday and Thursday, we have a major ice storm on our hands. I am even getting concerned that the Monday and Tuesday system could have a swath of ice with it, that could affect parts of Indiana, but at this point, I am much more concerned about the Wednesday and Thursday system.

For the past week, there has been a tendency for storms to cut through the Western Great Lakes, and this has kept Indiana and for that matter the entire Ohio Valley in the warm-sector of all of the storms, but as the pattern continues to change, and the Northern and Central Plains become colder, the storm systems will want to track farther Northeast into the Lower Ohio Valley, as they tend to follow the warmer air aloft, and this will mean that most of the Ohio Valley will have a much better chance of getting winter storms later next week, and even into the following week.

The European forecast model, which in the long-range time frame, is definitely one of the most accurate forecast models we have, is forecasting the pattern to be very active over the next 14 days, with the threat for winter weather over the area definitely being much higher than the previous week.

[Miss Mary]

Indianawxonline - please keep me and other posters near the Ohio Valley updated this week. On all 5 and 7 local forecasts, temps are above normal and rain is predicted. I will prepare for a possibility of ice though. Appreciate the heads up, even if it remains just rain.

Mary

[ohiostorm]

Yes definately keep us ahead of this one. Even if we get rain, flooding is almost a certainty in alot of places.

[IWXSkywarndork]

Yes, I am about 80 miles NNW of your location. The NWS mets up here at IWX have been callling for all rain through Wed. night, but have been mentioning ice in their forecast discussions enough to know that it is a real concern with them. They, like everyone else, can't trust the models enough lately to know exactly where the cold air boundry will lie from day-to-day.

I don't want to see an ice storm, I'd rather have a good snow anyday. However, like you said, conditions are setting up for someone posting here to get blanketed with ice later in the week. Keep us posted.

[PurdueWx80]

The models will appear to be too warm for frozen precipitation at first sight, but once you check out low-level thicknesses and take into account the fact that higher resolution models typically handle low level cold air better, ice will be likely in northern IA, IL, IN and OH with snow further north towards the middle of the week. Ultimately, it will come down to how far south the front makes it, which will directly affect the track of the surface low. Heavy accumulations of ice and/or snow will be possible given the moist and convective nature of the atmosphere.

[Miss Mary]

Here's what wxunderground has for my zip (45255) - the Cincinnati area for next Friday and Saturday (1/7 and 1/8):

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http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/fin ... uery=45255

Friday Night [January 7]
Partly cloudy in the evening...then becoming mostly cloudy. A chance of freezing rain and rain showers after midnight. Lows around 30. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.


Saturday [January 8]
Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers through the day. A chance of freezing rain in the morning. Highs in the upper 40s. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.

__________________________


And we have one local Met, Rich Apuzzo, on FOX's local channel 19 who is overly enthusiastic about forecasts! So much so that it seems a lot of folks are quite skeptical when he says - ice, snow coming. But I imagine he has this possibility in his 7 day forecast now. I'll go check later....

Mary

*Edit - Ch. 19's 7 day just had rain, no mention of ice. Accuweather's winter forecast page, has ice for the Ohio Valley from 6 a.m. Wednesday (1/5) to 6 a.m. Thursday (1/6).
http://wwwa.accuweather.com/adcbin/publ ... =snowice72

[jj_frap]

15 and heavy freezing rain here.

[IWXSkywarndork]

15 and heavy freezing rain here.

Heavy freezing rain with 15 degree surface temps? Wow!!! BTW, where is here?

Edit: Never mind. I just read on the other thread that you are in Ontario. That is amzing that there that much of a difference between the surface cold and warmer layer just above. That must be a very shallow layer.