Some incredibly good news for cold weather fans in the west, just came out! The experts are saying we could be entering a period that closely resembles January 1950. That month was ledgendary in the west, for brutal cold and tremendous snows, especially in Washington State. That month was so cold and snowy in Seattle that it actually beats the coldest month on recrod for New York city. The monthly snowfall total of 57.2 inches in Seattle that month, is greater than almost any non alpine city in the United States. Only a handful of cities have ever had that much in one month. This is not a slam dunk yet, but the models are all jumping on an extreme cold spell in the west by the end of the coming week. This link is for the GFS ensemble for the coming week, just look at how the extreme pattern is progged to unfold!
http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/targ/hgtensmnP2.2005010112.html
January 1950 Revisited?
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January 1950 Revisited?
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Latest NWS Forecast Discussion:
BIG CHANGES APPEAR IN THE OFFING AFTER WED. THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL
RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCY IN HOW THIS PATTERN EVOLVES...BUT THE
MODELS ARE SEEMING MORE AND MORE SET ON THE END RESULT. AT SOME
POINT...EITHER WED NIGHT OR THU...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NE PAC IS
GOING TO BREAK DOWN...FLOP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA...AND RETROGRADE
OUT TO NEAR 160W. THIS WILL QUICKLY BUST THE DOOR TO NORTHERLY FLOW
OPEN WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON THU. THE 12Z GFS SUGGESTED A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR WESTERLY HIGH
WIND SHOOTING OUT OF THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA ONTO WHIDBEY ISLAND
OR WESTERN SNOHOMISH COUNTY...BUT THE 18Z RUN LOOKS LESS FAVORABLE
FOR THIS HAPPENING...BUT THE SITUATION BEARS WATCHING. ONCE THE
FRONT COMES THROUGH...COLD POLAR AIR FROM THE ALASKA PANHANDLE WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. RECENT GFS RUNS HAVE THEN SPUN UP A
SURFACE LOW OFF THE VANCOUVER ISLAND COAST...A COMMON OCCURRENCE IN
THIS PATTERN...WHICH THEN STARTS TO SLOP MOISTURE ONSHORE OVER THE
POLAR AIR. EVENTUALLY BY NEXT SATURDAY...WE END UP WITH A 516
DECAMETER LOW AT 500 MB SITTING OVERHEAD...A SURFACE LOW JUST TO OUR
SOUTH...AND A 1048 MB ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE YUKON NOSING IN
FROM THE NORTH. IF IT VERIFIES...THIS COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT LOWLAND
SNOW EVENT. THE FOLKS BACK AT NCEP IN THEIR EXTENDED DISCUSSION EVEN
COMPARED THE PATTERN TO JANUARY 1950...ONE OF THE MOST NOTORIOUSLY
SNOWY MONTHS FOR SEATTLE.
BEFORE YOU PLAN A SNOW PARTY...THE MODELS HAVE SHOWN TWO OR THREE
SEPARATE TIMES IN RECENT WEEKS THIS GENERAL LONGWAVE PATTERN A WEEK
IN ADVANCE...AND IT HAS NOT VERIFIED IN ANY CASE NEARLY TO THE
EXTREME WHICH THE GFS SHOWED A WEEK IN ADVANCE. STILL...THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT NOW FOR SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE END RESULT...AND
THE LEADING COLD FRONT IS NOW ONLY FIVE DAYS OUT. STAY TUNED. HANER
BIG CHANGES APPEAR IN THE OFFING AFTER WED. THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL
RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCY IN HOW THIS PATTERN EVOLVES...BUT THE
MODELS ARE SEEMING MORE AND MORE SET ON THE END RESULT. AT SOME
POINT...EITHER WED NIGHT OR THU...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NE PAC IS
GOING TO BREAK DOWN...FLOP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA...AND RETROGRADE
OUT TO NEAR 160W. THIS WILL QUICKLY BUST THE DOOR TO NORTHERLY FLOW
OPEN WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON THU. THE 12Z GFS SUGGESTED A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR WESTERLY HIGH
WIND SHOOTING OUT OF THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA ONTO WHIDBEY ISLAND
OR WESTERN SNOHOMISH COUNTY...BUT THE 18Z RUN LOOKS LESS FAVORABLE
FOR THIS HAPPENING...BUT THE SITUATION BEARS WATCHING. ONCE THE
FRONT COMES THROUGH...COLD POLAR AIR FROM THE ALASKA PANHANDLE WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. RECENT GFS RUNS HAVE THEN SPUN UP A
SURFACE LOW OFF THE VANCOUVER ISLAND COAST...A COMMON OCCURRENCE IN
THIS PATTERN...WHICH THEN STARTS TO SLOP MOISTURE ONSHORE OVER THE
POLAR AIR. EVENTUALLY BY NEXT SATURDAY...WE END UP WITH A 516
DECAMETER LOW AT 500 MB SITTING OVERHEAD...A SURFACE LOW JUST TO OUR
SOUTH...AND A 1048 MB ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE YUKON NOSING IN
FROM THE NORTH. IF IT VERIFIES...THIS COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT LOWLAND
SNOW EVENT. THE FOLKS BACK AT NCEP IN THEIR EXTENDED DISCUSSION EVEN
COMPARED THE PATTERN TO JANUARY 1950...ONE OF THE MOST NOTORIOUSLY
SNOWY MONTHS FOR SEATTLE.
BEFORE YOU PLAN A SNOW PARTY...THE MODELS HAVE SHOWN TWO OR THREE
SEPARATE TIMES IN RECENT WEEKS THIS GENERAL LONGWAVE PATTERN A WEEK
IN ADVANCE...AND IT HAS NOT VERIFIED IN ANY CASE NEARLY TO THE
EXTREME WHICH THE GFS SHOWED A WEEK IN ADVANCE. STILL...THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT NOW FOR SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE END RESULT...AND
THE LEADING COLD FRONT IS NOW ONLY FIVE DAYS OUT. STAY TUNED. HANER
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Chris the Weather Man
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aggiecutter
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1950 is the analog flavor of the week. Since October, it seems there has been a different analog to compare this winter to every week. 63,83,89,77-78,78-79, 2000,2003-2004 are just a few( and there have been more) of the analogs that have been thrown around. That's what happens when there is no overwhelming signal in the Pacific--chaos.
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PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
916 AM EST SUN JAN 02 2005
...WEST...
DEEP COLD TROF TO DROP SWD OUT OF B.C. INTO THE PAC NW BRINGING
COLD TEMPS AND SNOW EVEN TO LOWER ELEVS LATE THURS WITH THE LOW
MID LEVEL HTS LINGERING OVER THE AREA.
THIS PATTERN
APPEARS TO BE FIXED IN THE MEAN THRU AT LEAST THE D+11 PERIOD.
THERE REMAINS AGAIN TDA AS PER PAST SEVERAL DAYS A HIGH
CORRELATION COMPOSITE ANALOG TO JAN 1950 WITH SECONDARY LINKS TO
1962/1954/1957.
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
916 AM EST SUN JAN 02 2005
...WEST...
DEEP COLD TROF TO DROP SWD OUT OF B.C. INTO THE PAC NW BRINGING
COLD TEMPS AND SNOW EVEN TO LOWER ELEVS LATE THURS WITH THE LOW
MID LEVEL HTS LINGERING OVER THE AREA.
THIS PATTERN
APPEARS TO BE FIXED IN THE MEAN THRU AT LEAST THE D+11 PERIOD.
THERE REMAINS AGAIN TDA AS PER PAST SEVERAL DAYS A HIGH
CORRELATION COMPOSITE ANALOG TO JAN 1950 WITH SECONDARY LINKS TO
1962/1954/1957.
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It's a toasty 75f.
Starting at the end of the week! All time record low for Seattle is 0 degrees, so Seattle could see below zero temps by SUN!
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 350 PM PST SUN JAN 2 2005
.SYNOPSIS...COOL AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINTAINING CLEAR AND QUIET WEATHER. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY USHERING IN COLD ARCTIC AIR AND AN UNSETTLED PERIOD THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND. &&
.DISCUSSION...THE FIRST THREE DAYS OF THE FORECAST ARE A NO-BRAINER. DEEP-LAYER NORTHEAST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL...KEEPING A STEADY FLOW OF COOL DRY CONTINENTAL AIR FLOWING INTO WRN WA. THE 1036 MB HIGH CURRENTLY OVER INTERIOR B.C. SHOULD WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING SHELTERED LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE FOOTHILLS TO GO CALM TONIGHT AND DEVELOP SOME PATCHY FOG. LATER MONDAY...ANOTHER SURGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REACH INTERIOR B.C....RE-INFORCING THE FRASER OUTFLOW WINDS AT BELLINGHAM AND KEEPING FOG SCOURED OUT ON MON NGT. OTHERWISE...THE CLEAR SKIES WILL MEAN COLD NIGHTS WHILE SUNSHINE WARMS US UP TO SEASONABLE LEVELS EACH AFTERNOON. THE EXTENDED PERIODS BEYOND WEDNESDAY ARE DEFINITELY THE INTERESTING PART OF THIS FORECAST. THERE IS UNUSUALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO MAJOR AMPLIFICATION ON WED NGT AND THU WITH THE NE PAC UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING AND RETROGRADING OUT TO NEAR 160W. THIS WILL FLING THE DOOR WIDE OPEN FOR A COLD FRONT TO DROP IN FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST ON THU. THIS WILL BE A VERY NOTICEABLE COLD FRONT WITH DAYTIME TEMPS FALLING BEHIND THE FRONT...REGARDLESS OF TIME OF DAY. THE SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE EXTEMELY STRONG 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS...WITH A HEIGHT FALL CENTER DROPPING THROUGH WA ON THE ORDER OF 30 DECAMETERS IN 12 HOURS. THAT`S ABOUT AS STRONG AS I`VE SEEN. DESPITE A LACK OF MOISTURE...THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE SUGGEST PRECIP WILL OCCUR AS THE FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THROUGH ON THU OR THU EVENING. BELIEVE MOST PRECIP WILL OCCUR ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO PRECIP SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS. HOWEVER...THE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A PRONOUNCED RAIN SHADOW OVER THE KITSAP PENINSULA AND THE CENTRAL SOUND...AND MAYBE THE SOUTH SOUND. WILL ALSO NEED TO SEE IF THIS BECOMES A HIGH WIND EVENT FOR THE EASTERN STRAIT...WHIDBEY ISLAND...AND THE EVERETT AREA. BEYOND THURSDAY...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT POLAR OR ARCTIC AIR WILL SET UP OVER WRN WA. THE EMERGING QUESTION IS IF THE DRY COLD AIR WILL JUST PUNCH RIGHT PAST OUR FORECAST AREA...LEAVING US CLEAR AND VERY COLD...OR IF A LOW WILL TRY TO SPIN UP JUST OFFSHORE OR TO OUR SOUTH...SLOPPING MOISTURE BACK UP INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW. THERE IS JUST NO CONSENSUS YET WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR A BIG DUMP OF SNOW ON FRI OR SAT...AND THE 12Z/18Z GFS KEEPING US DRY BUT WITH RECORD COLD TEMPS. IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...HAVE TRIED TO WALK A FINE LINE THAT LOWERS TEMPS FOR FRI AND BEYOND (GIVEN INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF UPCOMING PATTERN) WHILE MAKING FEW CHANGES TO PRECIP CHANCES. THIS MEANS TAKING OUT ANY "RAIN" MENTION FOR FRI NIGHT AND BEYOND...LEAVING JUST SNOW IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING HAS FALLEN TODAY. INDEED...IF THE 12Z AND 18Z GFS VERIFY...WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR FRI THROUGH SUN...
BUT WE COULD VERY WELL APPROACH ALL-TIME RECORD LOWS ON SUNDAY.
MUCH REMAINS TO BE SEEN...SO STAY TUNED. MRF-MOS LOVERS MAY FIND THE NEW FORECAST PACKAGE VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD NEXT WEEKEND...BUT IT COULD ACTUALLY PROVE TO BE A VERY CONSERVATIVE FORECAST. HANER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 350 PM PST SUN JAN 2 2005
.SYNOPSIS...COOL AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINTAINING CLEAR AND QUIET WEATHER. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY USHERING IN COLD ARCTIC AIR AND AN UNSETTLED PERIOD THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND. &&
.DISCUSSION...THE FIRST THREE DAYS OF THE FORECAST ARE A NO-BRAINER. DEEP-LAYER NORTHEAST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL...KEEPING A STEADY FLOW OF COOL DRY CONTINENTAL AIR FLOWING INTO WRN WA. THE 1036 MB HIGH CURRENTLY OVER INTERIOR B.C. SHOULD WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING SHELTERED LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE FOOTHILLS TO GO CALM TONIGHT AND DEVELOP SOME PATCHY FOG. LATER MONDAY...ANOTHER SURGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REACH INTERIOR B.C....RE-INFORCING THE FRASER OUTFLOW WINDS AT BELLINGHAM AND KEEPING FOG SCOURED OUT ON MON NGT. OTHERWISE...THE CLEAR SKIES WILL MEAN COLD NIGHTS WHILE SUNSHINE WARMS US UP TO SEASONABLE LEVELS EACH AFTERNOON. THE EXTENDED PERIODS BEYOND WEDNESDAY ARE DEFINITELY THE INTERESTING PART OF THIS FORECAST. THERE IS UNUSUALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO MAJOR AMPLIFICATION ON WED NGT AND THU WITH THE NE PAC UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING AND RETROGRADING OUT TO NEAR 160W. THIS WILL FLING THE DOOR WIDE OPEN FOR A COLD FRONT TO DROP IN FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST ON THU. THIS WILL BE A VERY NOTICEABLE COLD FRONT WITH DAYTIME TEMPS FALLING BEHIND THE FRONT...REGARDLESS OF TIME OF DAY. THE SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE EXTEMELY STRONG 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS...WITH A HEIGHT FALL CENTER DROPPING THROUGH WA ON THE ORDER OF 30 DECAMETERS IN 12 HOURS. THAT`S ABOUT AS STRONG AS I`VE SEEN. DESPITE A LACK OF MOISTURE...THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE SUGGEST PRECIP WILL OCCUR AS THE FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THROUGH ON THU OR THU EVENING. BELIEVE MOST PRECIP WILL OCCUR ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO PRECIP SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS. HOWEVER...THE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A PRONOUNCED RAIN SHADOW OVER THE KITSAP PENINSULA AND THE CENTRAL SOUND...AND MAYBE THE SOUTH SOUND. WILL ALSO NEED TO SEE IF THIS BECOMES A HIGH WIND EVENT FOR THE EASTERN STRAIT...WHIDBEY ISLAND...AND THE EVERETT AREA. BEYOND THURSDAY...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT POLAR OR ARCTIC AIR WILL SET UP OVER WRN WA. THE EMERGING QUESTION IS IF THE DRY COLD AIR WILL JUST PUNCH RIGHT PAST OUR FORECAST AREA...LEAVING US CLEAR AND VERY COLD...OR IF A LOW WILL TRY TO SPIN UP JUST OFFSHORE OR TO OUR SOUTH...SLOPPING MOISTURE BACK UP INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW. THERE IS JUST NO CONSENSUS YET WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR A BIG DUMP OF SNOW ON FRI OR SAT...AND THE 12Z/18Z GFS KEEPING US DRY BUT WITH RECORD COLD TEMPS. IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...HAVE TRIED TO WALK A FINE LINE THAT LOWERS TEMPS FOR FRI AND BEYOND (GIVEN INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF UPCOMING PATTERN) WHILE MAKING FEW CHANGES TO PRECIP CHANCES. THIS MEANS TAKING OUT ANY "RAIN" MENTION FOR FRI NIGHT AND BEYOND...LEAVING JUST SNOW IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING HAS FALLEN TODAY. INDEED...IF THE 12Z AND 18Z GFS VERIFY...WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR FRI THROUGH SUN...
BUT WE COULD VERY WELL APPROACH ALL-TIME RECORD LOWS ON SUNDAY.
MUCH REMAINS TO BE SEEN...SO STAY TUNED. MRF-MOS LOVERS MAY FIND THE NEW FORECAST PACKAGE VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD NEXT WEEKEND...BUT IT COULD ACTUALLY PROVE TO BE A VERY CONSERVATIVE FORECAST. HANER
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From another fourm, this person knows his stuff, and has been very accurate so far this winter....
The upcoming pattern is like nothing the Pacific Northwest has seen in many decades, if not since 1950. And the most incredible thing about this entire scenario is almost all models agree. With this kind of setup, models tend to diverge in all directions. But this time around, almost all models are in strong agreement...almost too strong for a medium-range forecast. To sum this up...expect a severe arctic outbreak from Friday on...possibly lasting through ALL of next week. This kind of pattern sets up maybe once ever 20-30 years. A polar vortex is expected to move across Alaska in the beginning of this week. Usually, most of the cold air moves due east and never favors locations further south. But in this rare occasion, the polar vortex is projected to move southeast across British Columbia, and then further south into Washington. With an unusually strong high pressure at 155W, the door is open for that arctic air to filter through Western Washington. Being the conservative snow person I am, I don't want to jump the gun and suggest what models are currently saying...it's just too amazing to even think about. But I'll give you a hint...Seattle could possibly drop below 0 degrees sometime throughout this arctic blast. I'll let Brennan and Snow_Wizzard further elaborate. Keep the faith alive and it looks like our dreams are finally coming true!!
Anthony
The upcoming pattern is like nothing the Pacific Northwest has seen in many decades, if not since 1950. And the most incredible thing about this entire scenario is almost all models agree. With this kind of setup, models tend to diverge in all directions. But this time around, almost all models are in strong agreement...almost too strong for a medium-range forecast. To sum this up...expect a severe arctic outbreak from Friday on...possibly lasting through ALL of next week. This kind of pattern sets up maybe once ever 20-30 years. A polar vortex is expected to move across Alaska in the beginning of this week. Usually, most of the cold air moves due east and never favors locations further south. But in this rare occasion, the polar vortex is projected to move southeast across British Columbia, and then further south into Washington. With an unusually strong high pressure at 155W, the door is open for that arctic air to filter through Western Washington. Being the conservative snow person I am, I don't want to jump the gun and suggest what models are currently saying...it's just too amazing to even think about. But I'll give you a hint...Seattle could possibly drop below 0 degrees sometime throughout this arctic blast. I'll let Brennan and Snow_Wizzard further elaborate. Keep the faith alive and it looks like our dreams are finally coming true!!
Anthony
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dvdweatherwizard
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FWIW, I posted a 500 mb mean map from January 1950 in the other thread about 1950 just to see a visual of what the mean pattern looked like back then compared to our current pattern. http://storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=55011
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mcallo2420
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January 1950 was the warmest January on record for Birmingham AL. Average temperature for the month was 13.8° above normal!! We had only 2 low's the entire month where it reached below freezing. The average temperature for the month was 58.9 °, which is a full 2.5° higher than the next warmest January.
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PTrackerLA
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