Lawrence Kansas Ideas

[sertorius]

simplykristi:

I'm heading back Monday as well-the wind has now switched to the north and we are getting some rain-it seems the front is on the move-it is crazy: Concordia Kansas is at 30 and Manhattan is going towards the freezing mark!! If the ETA were to verify, we could have 2-4 inches of snow as well as some sleet on Wednesday. How about the Hawks today

[simplykristi]

I need to check the temp here. If it is cooling off there in Lawrence, it won't be long before the front moves thru here if it does not stall.

I watched that game on TV... It has got to be one of the bext KU games I've ever seen. I was worried when were down 16 points in the first half. That comeback was incredible!

Kristi.. a big KU basketball fan

[sertorius]

Few quick notes as my kids are getting going this morning so not much time to type!! The front moved thru here last nigt-I am now at 32 degrees-it is located between here and Wichita ks. which is still at 60 degrees!! The NWS out of Topeka and Kansas City has changed discussion to possible significant snow on Wednesday and possible ice tonight. The 12Z ETA is already trending back a bit from the 0z run and is not as bullish on the cold-prob. will not have a handle on the Wed. event untill Tuesday-but for today, if that front continues to push south, the cold air should become more solidified here-if it stays in its current position, I would imagine that when the next sw come out today, it will push the front back north as warm air comes in-if it could continue south, the cold air may become entrenched enough to allow moisture to be thrown over the top-very complicated weather the next 4 days with the arctice air hovering here-a forcast I can't begin to understand-I'll just have to watch the temps. etc. and see what happens-what ever the case, this is the most exciting weather we've had in a long time!!

[simplykristi]

I just woke up and went over to NOAA to read the forecast. The forecast has definitely changed since last night. Oh my!

Kristi

[wx247]

Definitely something to keep an eye for sure. Jayson (from JSquared) had his first real taste of winter in 2005 yesterday and it looks like you guys might as well.

[sertorius]

The NWS service out of Topeka is beginning to change their tune-winter weather advisories are posted for areas to my North and West-I mean the next county over-my temp is slowly rising today, but the cold air def. made it further south than they thought. The event today and Monday will most likely be liquid as temps. should slowly rise or stay steady-but Wed/Thursd. should be watched-the ETA has us in a significant ice storm with some minor accumalating snows-the GFS is comming around to this as well-If the low tracks a bit further south, we could ahve significant snow (the NWS has not ruled this out) but if it tracks as the gfs is saying, we could have a significant ice storm in Lawrence with heavier snow to my North and West. The models do seem to be getting more consistent for this area-too early to tell what we will have for sure, but I am betting that significant portion of the event is frozen in some fashion-of course I could be reading this wrong or as may well be the case, it call track North and I could get all rain-The EURO has had this storm south all along-interesting times for sure-today will be North and West of me-Wednesday is the time to watch out for!!!

[simplykristi]

Does it look like an ice storn for KC????

Kristi

[wx247]

Does it look like an ice storn for KC????

Kristi

Kristi... as of right now, it really looks like it could go either way, however, I think regardless... you will get some ice. The main question is: will it be mainly ice for you (resulting in mod. accumulations) or mainly snow? As of right now, I see sig. icing wrapping up as a little bit of snow. It all depends on the track of the storm system.

We will just have to wait and watch future model runs, AFDs, and forecasts.

[simplykristi]

I am afraid of another ice storm... The Jan. 2002 ice storm is still fresh in my mind.

Kristi

[sertorius]

Simpli Kristi:

I think it is a good bet that we will get some ice-I'm even beginning to wonder about tonight as my temp. has dropped a degree in an hour to almost 32-it is going to be close tonight-Wednesday is a significant event-the last models I saw start us out as rain, but we quickly turn over to ice-we are on the boundry but closer to the snow line than the all ice line in my opinion-but, this does have alot of the same scenarios as the 2002 ice storm-even on the same days!!!! We shall see-It looks to be a busy couple of days here!!!

[simplykristi]

It will be interesting getting back and forth from work the next few days.

Kristi

[wx247]

You have gone under a Winter Wx. Advisory too, haven't you Kristi???

The models have not done a good job with the push of this front.

[sertorius]

wx247:

man the models were horrible with this front!!! Time to look at temps. and radars!!! i was wondering last night at about 8:00 when 200 miles north of me it was 35 degrees colder and then rain started to pop-I was like-this front is comming thru and nobody could stop it-also, no warm up today at all!! I really see the NWS posting a WSWatch for us for Wednesday-the 18z gfs just really goes nuts over us and the eta has a significant ice storm. Game On!!!!!

[simplykristi]

Hi Garrett,
Yes, we under a winter weather adv from 9:00 PM tonight until 9:00 AM tomorrow. Looks like we might get some freezing rain tonight.

Kristi

[wx247]

Keep an eye on things over the next 12 hours or so... I think you may see some surprises. I have a complete rundown on it over at JSquared.

[sertorius]

It appears now that Lawrence will likely see its biggest winter event in several years starting tomorrow and lasting to Thursday morning-all models are in agreement of shallow cold air and abundant mositure. My own personal call and it doesn't mean squat: 1/2 to 3/4 inch of ice accumalations with 2-4 inches of snow/sleet. If the 0z eta is correct, you can bump the ice up to close to an inch-I just feel the storm will track a bit further south. With the ice and snow, we also will have wind and cold temps. This is a much bigger event than 2002 for here due to wind and Temps. We are in a winter storm warning and KC is in a Ice storm warning where they could see over an inch of accumaltions. Very serious situation developing for this area.

[sertorius]

Quick update: lawrence and Kansas City are in line for thier worst storm in prob. over a decade. The ETA just looks nasty for this area!! We shall see.