Big winterstorm to possibly hit northwest next weekend. The CPC national guys are compairing the set up to Jan 1950! Seattle had 57" of snow and sub zero temps for an extended period of time. Here is the latest NWS discussion.......
ONCE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH...COLD POLAR AIR FROM THE ALASKA PANHANDLE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. RECENT GFS RUNS HAVE THEN SPUN UP A SURFACE LOW OFF THE VANCOUVER ISLAND COAST...A COMMON OCCURRENCE IN THIS PATTERN...WHICH THEN STARTS TO SLOP MOISTURE ONSHORE OVER THE POLAR AIR. EVENTUALLY BY NEXT SATURDAY...WE END UP WITH A 516 DECAMETER LOW AT 500 MB SITTING OVERHEAD...A SURFACE LOW JUST TO OUR SOUTH...AND A 1048 MB ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE YUKON NOSING IN FROM THE NORTH. IF IT VERIFIES...THIS COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT LOWLAND SNOW EVENT. THE FOLKS BACK AT NCEP IN THEIR EXTENDED DISCUSSION EVEN COMPARED THE PATTERN TO JANUARY 1950...ONE OF THE MOST NOTORIOUSLY SNOWY MONTHS FOR SEATTLE. BEFORE YOU PLAN A SNOW PARTY...THE MODELS HAVE SHOWN TWO OR THREE SEPARATE TIMES IN RECENT WEEKS THIS GENERAL LONGWAVE PATTERN A WEEK IN ADVANCE...AND IT HAS NOT VERIFIED IN ANY CASE NEARLY TO THE EXTREME WHICH THE GFS SHOWED A WEEK IN ADVANCE. STILL...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT NOW FOR SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE END RESULT...AND THE LEADING COLD FRONT IS NOW ONLY FIVE DAYS OUT. STAY TUNED. HANER
Possible major winter storm to nail Seattle next weekend 1/7
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
Here is what a well respected forecaster in another fourm had to say about this upcoming event......
Re: Northwest Winter 2004-2005
Posted by: Anthony (IP Logged)
Date: January 1, 2005 09:12PM
I've never seen this approaching pattern before. Thursday on is shaping to be the coldest arctic outbreak since December of 1990. Just to start, 1000-500 mb thicknesses are at 492 by Sunday, January 9. For people who don't understand, this situation would bring afternoon high temperatures in the teens across all of Western Washington...probably about 5 degrees in Bellingham. 1000-500 mb thicknesses in British Columbia are almost unbelievably cold...it shows a green patch right over southern BC...thicknesses about 470. Add a strong cold front and approaching surface low to the mix, and Western Washington may see a major snowstorm starting Thursday through Monday. And I'm talking MAJOR accumulations. I won't put out specific details/predictions just yet because this pattern is still premature, but just be prepared. I've been looking at forecast models for almost three years and have never seen this sort of pattern and amount of arctic air. And I'm fairly confident about this. Everyone knows I'm very conservative when it comes to arctic air and lowland snow. I didn't even jump on this marginal arctic event this weekend because it just didn't look like a classic scenario. Models have been advertising this pattern for about four days...both Brennan and Snow_Wizzard have been talking about it, but I promised myself I wouldn't say anything until it was within a five-day reach. Now that it's five days away, I'm thoroughly convinced. Keep the faith alive...this could go down in the record books.
Anthony
PS-I'll have some rough estimations/predictions later tonight. I'm still looking at a couple of models, but I have a general idea. A small hint...if you thought last January's snowstorm was big for the lowlands, this possible storm this weekend will blow it out of the water!!
He has been very accurate so far this winter, so confidence is high!
Re: Northwest Winter 2004-2005
Posted by: Anthony (IP Logged)
Date: January 1, 2005 09:12PM
I've never seen this approaching pattern before. Thursday on is shaping to be the coldest arctic outbreak since December of 1990. Just to start, 1000-500 mb thicknesses are at 492 by Sunday, January 9. For people who don't understand, this situation would bring afternoon high temperatures in the teens across all of Western Washington...probably about 5 degrees in Bellingham. 1000-500 mb thicknesses in British Columbia are almost unbelievably cold...it shows a green patch right over southern BC...thicknesses about 470. Add a strong cold front and approaching surface low to the mix, and Western Washington may see a major snowstorm starting Thursday through Monday. And I'm talking MAJOR accumulations. I won't put out specific details/predictions just yet because this pattern is still premature, but just be prepared. I've been looking at forecast models for almost three years and have never seen this sort of pattern and amount of arctic air. And I'm fairly confident about this. Everyone knows I'm very conservative when it comes to arctic air and lowland snow. I didn't even jump on this marginal arctic event this weekend because it just didn't look like a classic scenario. Models have been advertising this pattern for about four days...both Brennan and Snow_Wizzard have been talking about it, but I promised myself I wouldn't say anything until it was within a five-day reach. Now that it's five days away, I'm thoroughly convinced. Keep the faith alive...this could go down in the record books.
Anthony
PS-I'll have some rough estimations/predictions later tonight. I'm still looking at a couple of models, but I have a general idea. A small hint...if you thought last January's snowstorm was big for the lowlands, this possible storm this weekend will blow it out of the water!!
He has been very accurate so far this winter, so confidence is high!
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PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
916 AM EST SUN JAN 02 2005
...WEST...
DEEP COLD TROF TO DROP SWD OUT OF B.C. INTO THE PAC NW BRINGING
COLD TEMPS AND SNOW EVEN TO LOWER ELEVS LATE THURS WITH THE LOW
MID LEVEL HTS LINGERING OVER THE AREA.
THIS PATTERN
APPEARS TO BE FIXED IN THE MEAN THRU AT LEAST THE D+11 PERIOD.
THERE REMAINS AGAIN TDA AS PER PAST SEVERAL DAYS A HIGH
CORRELATION COMPOSITE ANALOG TO JAN 1950 WITH SECONDARY LINKS TO
1962/1954/1957.
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
916 AM EST SUN JAN 02 2005
...WEST...
DEEP COLD TROF TO DROP SWD OUT OF B.C. INTO THE PAC NW BRINGING
COLD TEMPS AND SNOW EVEN TO LOWER ELEVS LATE THURS WITH THE LOW
MID LEVEL HTS LINGERING OVER THE AREA.
THIS PATTERN
APPEARS TO BE FIXED IN THE MEAN THRU AT LEAST THE D+11 PERIOD.
THERE REMAINS AGAIN TDA AS PER PAST SEVERAL DAYS A HIGH
CORRELATION COMPOSITE ANALOG TO JAN 1950 WITH SECONDARY LINKS TO
1962/1954/1957.
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Still looking awesome for Thursday on through the foreseeable future!
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 855 AM PST MON JAN 3 2005
.SYNOPSIS...COOL AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINTAINING CLEAR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY USHERING IN ARCTIC AIR AND AN UNSETTLED PERIOD THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. &&
.DISCUSSION...DRY COOL NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED. COLD AIR ADVECTION IS BEING COUNTERED BY SUBSIDENCE OFF THE CASCADES SO EXPECT LITTLE DAY TO DAY TEMPERATURE CHANGE. FRASER WINDS HAVE DECREASED AS PRESSURES HAVE FALLEN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL B.C. BUT THOSE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED AGAIN AS AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVES NORTH FROM THE N CALIFORNIA AND OREGON COAST AND THE HIGH TO THE NE BUILDS A BIT. THE LONG WAVE RIDGE AT 150W APPEARS THAT IT WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO KEEPING WRN WA COLD AND UNSETTLED AT TIMES. IT APPEARS TO BE GETTING FORCED BY TROPICAL CONVECTION OVER INDONESIA AND IN THE W PACIFIC...NOT TYPICAL OF A CENTRAL PAC EL NINO. THE AMPLITUDE AND PERSISTENCE OF THE FORECAST PATTERN IS NOT UNLIKE WHAT WAS SEEN DURING SOME OF SEATTLE`S COLDER AND SNOWIER WINTERS. KEEP IN MIND THOUGH THAT THE MODELS ARE IMPERFECT AND FREQUENTLY BRING COLD AIR TO THE SW TOO EASILY. 12Z MODELS SHOW THAT IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT AREAS IN THE INTERIOR NORTH OF SEATTLE MAY BE OPEN TO GETTING SOME SNOWFALL LATE THU OR THU NIGHT AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW TOPPING THE RIDGE IN ALASKA DROPS SE INTO THE AREA. THE SURFACE LOW DROPS SE ALONG THE COAST AND THIS SHOULD KEEP SURFACE GRADIENTS OFFSHORE WITH MOISTURE RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE COOL DOME. SEATTLE S MAY JUST BE ALL COLD RAIN AS MARINE AIR FROM THE SW KEEPS SNOW LEVELS 1500 FEET OR SO. AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES SE INTO SRN WA...THE DOOR WILL BE OPEN FOR COLD AIR TO COME INTO ALL OF WRN WA FRI THRU THE WEEKEND. PER THE 12Z GFS...CYCLOGENESIS AS COLD AIR HITS THE WARM PACIFIC AND WITH THE PRESENCE OF A 503 DAM 500 MB LOW OVERHEAD...COULD SPREAD A SNOW OVER AN ARCTIC DOME IN THE INTERIOR FRI NIGHT OR SAT. LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE A VERY INTERESTING WEEKEND. TIME WILL TELL. AT THIS POINT THE CURRENT FORECASTS LOOK GOOD. ALBRECHT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 855 AM PST MON JAN 3 2005
.SYNOPSIS...COOL AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINTAINING CLEAR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY USHERING IN ARCTIC AIR AND AN UNSETTLED PERIOD THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. &&
.DISCUSSION...DRY COOL NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED. COLD AIR ADVECTION IS BEING COUNTERED BY SUBSIDENCE OFF THE CASCADES SO EXPECT LITTLE DAY TO DAY TEMPERATURE CHANGE. FRASER WINDS HAVE DECREASED AS PRESSURES HAVE FALLEN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL B.C. BUT THOSE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED AGAIN AS AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVES NORTH FROM THE N CALIFORNIA AND OREGON COAST AND THE HIGH TO THE NE BUILDS A BIT. THE LONG WAVE RIDGE AT 150W APPEARS THAT IT WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO KEEPING WRN WA COLD AND UNSETTLED AT TIMES. IT APPEARS TO BE GETTING FORCED BY TROPICAL CONVECTION OVER INDONESIA AND IN THE W PACIFIC...NOT TYPICAL OF A CENTRAL PAC EL NINO. THE AMPLITUDE AND PERSISTENCE OF THE FORECAST PATTERN IS NOT UNLIKE WHAT WAS SEEN DURING SOME OF SEATTLE`S COLDER AND SNOWIER WINTERS. KEEP IN MIND THOUGH THAT THE MODELS ARE IMPERFECT AND FREQUENTLY BRING COLD AIR TO THE SW TOO EASILY. 12Z MODELS SHOW THAT IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT AREAS IN THE INTERIOR NORTH OF SEATTLE MAY BE OPEN TO GETTING SOME SNOWFALL LATE THU OR THU NIGHT AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW TOPPING THE RIDGE IN ALASKA DROPS SE INTO THE AREA. THE SURFACE LOW DROPS SE ALONG THE COAST AND THIS SHOULD KEEP SURFACE GRADIENTS OFFSHORE WITH MOISTURE RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE COOL DOME. SEATTLE S MAY JUST BE ALL COLD RAIN AS MARINE AIR FROM THE SW KEEPS SNOW LEVELS 1500 FEET OR SO. AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES SE INTO SRN WA...THE DOOR WILL BE OPEN FOR COLD AIR TO COME INTO ALL OF WRN WA FRI THRU THE WEEKEND. PER THE 12Z GFS...CYCLOGENESIS AS COLD AIR HITS THE WARM PACIFIC AND WITH THE PRESENCE OF A 503 DAM 500 MB LOW OVERHEAD...COULD SPREAD A SNOW OVER AN ARCTIC DOME IN THE INTERIOR FRI NIGHT OR SAT. LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE A VERY INTERESTING WEEKEND. TIME WILL TELL. AT THIS POINT THE CURRENT FORECASTS LOOK GOOD. ALBRECHT
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That would be awesome! They should think about coming out this way!
I remember last year Jim Cantore was at the columbia gorge, (the boarder of washington and oregon) and was getting hammered by snow, sleet, 60MPH wind, everything! It was great to see him out here during last years winter storm!
I remember last year Jim Cantore was at the columbia gorge, (the boarder of washington and oregon) and was getting hammered by snow, sleet, 60MPH wind, everything! It was great to see him out here during last years winter storm!
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From another board, found it very interesting!
Re: Ultimate snow pattern for Seattle!
Posted by: patrick kelly (IP Logged)
Date: January 3, 2005 03:50PM
hey guys.....
i have been looking at the models all weekend and most of today and i have to agree with snow-wiz and anthony on this possible major setup for this weekend. not only are things finally falling into place as predicted nearly a week ago, but at the same time the arctic air that will be moving in is showing signs of possibly being even colder than what's being predicted right now. i also feel that by the time sunday afternoon rolls around, most areas in W. WA will have anywhere between 4-8 inches of snow on the ground. i know im going out on a limb here, but i've seen this pattern before and pretty much know what to expect. at the same time we could very well have even more snow than that, possibly up to 20-24 inches in some areas. most of you in the know would know where that would be, specifically brennan, anthony and snow-wiz. also in refrence to 1950, this current pattern does appear to be following that one as well . almost to the tee. but if any of you have done your home work, you'll know that 1950 was almost as bad as 1902 here in seattle , when downtown got a record 85 inches in 3 days and temps didnt get above 5F for almost 2 weeks. i dont see that happening yet, but if the models stay current ( which i'm pretty sure they will ) then most of us here in the PACNW will have one of the most memorable winters in recent memory.
take care and stay tuned. patrick kelly
Re: Ultimate snow pattern for Seattle!
Posted by: patrick kelly (IP Logged)
Date: January 3, 2005 03:50PM
hey guys.....
i have been looking at the models all weekend and most of today and i have to agree with snow-wiz and anthony on this possible major setup for this weekend. not only are things finally falling into place as predicted nearly a week ago, but at the same time the arctic air that will be moving in is showing signs of possibly being even colder than what's being predicted right now. i also feel that by the time sunday afternoon rolls around, most areas in W. WA will have anywhere between 4-8 inches of snow on the ground. i know im going out on a limb here, but i've seen this pattern before and pretty much know what to expect. at the same time we could very well have even more snow than that, possibly up to 20-24 inches in some areas. most of you in the know would know where that would be, specifically brennan, anthony and snow-wiz. also in refrence to 1950, this current pattern does appear to be following that one as well . almost to the tee. but if any of you have done your home work, you'll know that 1950 was almost as bad as 1902 here in seattle , when downtown got a record 85 inches in 3 days and temps didnt get above 5F for almost 2 weeks. i dont see that happening yet, but if the models stay current ( which i'm pretty sure they will ) then most of us here in the PACNW will have one of the most memorable winters in recent memory.
take care and stay tuned. patrick kelly
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
906 PM PST MON JAN 3 2005
WAZ001>018-050000-
ADMIRALTY INLET AREA-CENTRAL CASCADE FOOTHILLS-CENTRAL COAST-
EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EVERETT AND VICINITY-
HOOD CANAL/KITSAP PENINSULA-NORTH COAST-NORTHERN CASCADE FOOTHILLS-
NORTHWEST INTERIOR-OLYMPICS-SAN JUAN COUNTY-
SEATTLE METROPOLITAN AREA-SOUTHWEST INTERIOR-TACOMA AREA-
WEST SLOPES CENTRAL CASCADES AND PASSES-
WEST SLOPES NORTHERN CASCADES AND PASSES-
WESTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY-
906 PM PST MON JAN 3 2005
...COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON EXPECTED TO INVADE WESTERN
WASHINGTON THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK..
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE LATER
THIS WEEK AS A MODIFIED ARCTIC FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS THIS WEEKEND AND IN THE TEENS IN THE
CASCADE PASSES.
THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OCCUR OVER
PARTS OF THE LOWLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A STORM
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...THE TRACK AND TIMING OF
THIS FEATURE WERE STILL UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER IF THE LATEST NUMERICAL
WEATHER MODELS DO VERIFY...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE WILL
END UP FALLING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWLANDS.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR MORE
DETAILS OR UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ON THIS UPCOMING
EVENT.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
906 PM PST MON JAN 3 2005
WAZ001>018-050000-
ADMIRALTY INLET AREA-CENTRAL CASCADE FOOTHILLS-CENTRAL COAST-
EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EVERETT AND VICINITY-
HOOD CANAL/KITSAP PENINSULA-NORTH COAST-NORTHERN CASCADE FOOTHILLS-
NORTHWEST INTERIOR-OLYMPICS-SAN JUAN COUNTY-
SEATTLE METROPOLITAN AREA-SOUTHWEST INTERIOR-TACOMA AREA-
WEST SLOPES CENTRAL CASCADES AND PASSES-
WEST SLOPES NORTHERN CASCADES AND PASSES-
WESTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY-
906 PM PST MON JAN 3 2005
...COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON EXPECTED TO INVADE WESTERN
WASHINGTON THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK..
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE LATER
THIS WEEK AS A MODIFIED ARCTIC FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS THIS WEEKEND AND IN THE TEENS IN THE
CASCADE PASSES.
THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OCCUR OVER
PARTS OF THE LOWLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A STORM
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...THE TRACK AND TIMING OF
THIS FEATURE WERE STILL UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER IF THE LATEST NUMERICAL
WEATHER MODELS DO VERIFY...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE WILL
END UP FALLING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWLANDS.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR MORE
DETAILS OR UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ON THIS UPCOMING
EVENT.
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