NAO Discussion from Mount Holly

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Wnghs2007
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NAO Discussion from Mount Holly

#1 Postby Wnghs2007 » Tue Jan 04, 2005 4:42 pm

Got this from a poster named mcgin on another site. This is there post Im just posting it over here for informational purposes.

Anyway here is the post

mcgin wrote:NAO Disscusion from Mount Holly

CLIMATE...

NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO) HAS BEEN HIGHLY POSITIVE OVER THE
PAST TWO WEEKS BUT HAS STARTED TO TREND DOWNWARD OVER PAST TWO DAYS
(IT COULDN'T GET MUCH HIGHER). MOST RECENT CPC ENSEMBLE NAO
FORECAST SHOWS CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT DOWNWARD TREND OVER NEXT TWO
WEEKS...BUT VERY WIDE SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WITH NAO VALUES
RANGING FROM PLUS 3 TO MINUS 2. SIGNAL IS A LITTLE COLDER IN THE 10
TO 14 DAY RANGE THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...BUT WIDE ENSEMBLE
VARIANCE SUGGESTS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY.

00Z GFS CONTINUES TREND OF BUILDING 850 MB COLD POOL OVER NORTH
AMERICAN CONTINENT. BY DAY 10 850 MB TEMP FORECAST SHOWS MAJOR N
HEMISPHERE COLD POOL LODGED OVER CENTRAL CANADA. IF THIS
VERIFIES...COLDEST AIR OF SEASON WILL BE POISED JUST TO OUR NORTH.


So I wonder what wxguy25 thinks of this... :grrr:
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#2 Postby cctxhurricanewatcher » Tue Jan 04, 2005 5:14 pm

Please. It's just a straight shot south from Central Canada to Texas!
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weatherlover427

#3 Postby weatherlover427 » Tue Jan 04, 2005 5:15 pm

:cry:

There goes the rest of our winter...
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#4 Postby Keith234 » Tue Jan 04, 2005 5:17 pm

it can't stay positive for ever....and it's telling us that we have an amplified progressvie pattern coming into our hands around Jan 9thish.
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#5 Postby weatherlover427 » Tue Jan 04, 2005 5:29 pm

This just means that everyone east of the Rockies will go hog the trough again (like they need it anyway) for the rest of the month while we get nothing...
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#6 Postby Keith234 » Tue Jan 04, 2005 6:12 pm

yep
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#7 Postby weatherlover427 » Tue Jan 04, 2005 6:14 pm

Well I live in the Los Angeles area and (as I am sure you all know) we have been getting slammed the past week and a half or so by heavy rain, wind, etc etc etc. I doubt I need to tell you again.

But if the trough moves over to your side of the country, that means we get a ridge, aka sunny skies and drier weather, which (ironically) is good for the flooding concerns but bad for our long term drought outlook since we have been so terribly dry for so very long...
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#8 Postby Wnghs2007 » Tue Jan 04, 2005 6:53 pm

Well were tired of a ridge too Josh...Yall cant "hog it" the trough either. I should not be 75 in the middle of winter. And we have not had anyrain in over half a month. Were about to have a drough again. :(



What we need is a nation wide trough....with a super strong polar vortex located from Montana to Maine.... then were all happy...Wish for 83'
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#9 Postby Keith234 » Tue Jan 04, 2005 8:26 pm

we should all move to fairbanks alaska...work at the NWS and see snow every single day of the winter.
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#10 Postby Chris the Weather Man » Tue Jan 04, 2005 9:01 pm

Wnghs2007 wrote:Well were tired of a ridge too Josh...Yall cant "hog it" the trough either. I should not be 75 in the middle of winter. And we have not had anyrain in over half a month. Were about to have a drough again. :(



What we need is a nation wide trough....with a super strong polar vortex located from Montana to Maine.... then were all happy...Wish for 83'



December 1983? I would rather take Feb 1983 :) 1 HECS.... 35" of snow...
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#11 Postby Wnghs2007 » Tue Jan 04, 2005 9:09 pm

No just 1983 in General...lol :lol:
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#12 Postby Chris the Weather Man » Tue Jan 04, 2005 10:07 pm

lol :lol:
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