Interesting looking system???

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #1 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sun Jan 02, 2005 11:54 pm

It is centerd at 29.5/49.5 it appears to look kind of like a tropical cyclone.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

#2 Postby **george_r_1961** » Mon Jan 03, 2005 3:31 am

It looks cold core.. an impressive cold core system. The chances of it transitioning to a subtropical or tropical system are slim at best.

James · #3 Postby **James** » Mon Jan 03, 2005 4:42 am

It's pretty impressive to look at on satellite. Give it another six months or so for Arlene.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #4 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Jan 04, 2005 7:03 pm

I'm not kiding when I say this is looking more like a tropical storm. Deep convection has started to form. Nice LLC. No joke!!!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

#5 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Jan 04, 2005 7:15 pm

Tropical Weather Discussion 705 PM EST TUE 04 JAN 2005

ENHANCED INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD CORE LOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE N PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 36W-50W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1008 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 27N49W WITH A BROAD TROUGH TRAILING SWD ALONG 18N50W TO TRINIDAD/TOBAGO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED WITHIN SEVERAL DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE TO 65W.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #6 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Jan 04, 2005 8:44 pm

I have seen the nhc upgrade less oreganized way less oreganized then that. To tell you the truth it took 3 days for them to upgrade tropical storm Otto. One thing is for sure after all these years of tracking these systems. Is that the nhc hates upgrading systems in the off sytstem. It can be a strong tropical storm. This system could at least be a freaking invest?

#7 Postby **Hurricanehink** » Tue Jan 04, 2005 9:20 pm

I agree that the NHC takes a while, but it shouldn't be an invest quite yet. It is still cold-core, but if convection continues and it maintains itself, it has a shot of an invest. Arlene is way far off, though.

Derek Ortt · #8 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Tue Jan 04, 2005 10:19 pm

compared to Matthew and Grace, this looks very well organized and very tropical (I know it is not tropical, its the comparison on the sat imagery alone)

#9 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Jan 04, 2005 10:53 pm

Stationary now! And I'm up to 1400.

#10 Postby **george_r_1961** » Wed Jan 05, 2005 2:32 am

I have to admit its starting to look a little more tropical but im not ready to forecast TC development yet. However if it moves WSW underneath that ridge to the north toward more favorable conditions..and it maintains convection its remotely possible we may have a subtropical or hybrid. Keep in mind though this is VERY rare in January :eek:

weatherwindow · #11 Postby **weatherwindow** » Wed Jan 05, 2005 10:31 am

according to the 1/5 705am trop discussion, the low has weakened slightly(1mb) and is forecast to open into a trough in the next 24 hours. took a look at the gfs and nogaps...both are tending to agree with the above discussion...however hope springs eternal

Interesting looking system???

Interesting looking system???

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