Tropical Cyclone 08P

[James]

A new invest has emerged in the South Pacific. Looks pretty well organised. What do you guys think?

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?YEAR=2005&MO=01&BASIN=SHEM&STORM_NAME=98P.INVEST&PROD=track_vis&PHOT=yes&ARCHIVE=active&NAV=tc&DISPLAY=&AGE=Latest&STYLE=tables

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W issued from RSMC NADI Jan 04/0006 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F [1000HPA] WAS RELOCATED TO 9.5S 175.5E AT 032100UTC MOVING SOUTHWEST 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR AND BASED ON GOES9 VIS ANIMATION, PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND QUIKSCAT. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED WITHIN 120 MILES. SST IN THE AREA IS ABOUT 30 DEGREE CELSIUS. SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANISED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS AND CONVECTION HAS MUSHROOMED CLOSE TO THE LLCC IN THE EASTERN SEMICRICLE AND IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT. 05F IS LOCATED SOUTH OF AN 250HPA OUTLFLOW IN A DIFFLUENT REGION. ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR REMAINS WEAK. 250HPA PROGNOSIS INDICATES THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, CURRENTLY LOCATDE JUST NORTH OF 05F, IS DRIFTING SOUTH AND IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN LOW SHEAR AND DIFFLUENCE IN THE VICINITY OF 05F. GLOBAL MODELS ARE DRIFTING 05F SOUTHWEST. ECMWF SUGGESTS POSSIBLE INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

[James]

It still looks fairly well organised. It certainly bears watching over the next couple of days.

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W issued from RSMC NADI Jan 04/0848 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F [1000HPA] NEAR TO 9.5S 175.3E AT 040600UTC MOVING SOUTHWEST 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR AND BASED ON GOES9 IR ANIMATION, PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND QUIKSCAT. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED WITHIN 180 MILES. SST IN THE AREA IS ABOUT 30 DEGREE CELSIUS.

SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANISED SINCE THE LAST 24 HOURS AND CONVECTION HAS MUSHROOMED CLOSE TO THE LLCC. BANDING FEATURE ALSO TRYING TO BECOME ORGANISED AND SUGGESTS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. 05F IS LOCATED SOUTH OF AN 250HPA OUTLFLOW IN A DIFFLUENT REGION. ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR REMAINS WEAK. 250HPA PROGNOSIS INDICATES THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, CURRENTLY LOCATDE JUST NORTH OF 05F, IS DRIFTING SOUTH AND IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN LOW SHEAR AND DIFFLUENCE IN THE VICINITY OF 05F. GLOBAL MODELS ARE DRIFTING 05F SOUTHWEST. ECMWF SUGGESTS POSSIBLE INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.

[senorpepr]

WTPS21 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 042051Z JAN 05//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 150 NM RADIUS OF 9.4S3 173.5E6 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY­
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 041925Z1 INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.3S2 174.3E5. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.1S0
174.9E1, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.3S2 174.3E5 APPROXIMATELY 585 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. RECENT MICROWAVE
AND QUIKSCAT DATA SHOW A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
STRONGER CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 052100Z8.//

[James]

It certainly looks impressive on satellite imagery.

[James]

Wow, there's a lot of activity down in the South Pacific. A new invest has popped up - 90P.

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A1 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 05/0203 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F [998HPA] CENTRE LOCATED NEAR 10.5S 173.5E AT 050000 UTC MOVING SOUTHWEST 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES9 VIS/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS FROM SECTORS NORTHWEST THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHWEST WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ORGANISATION INCREASED PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION ALSO INCREASED AND COOLED WITH FORMATION OF A CDO. BANDING TO EAST DEVELOPING WITH SOME CURVATURE. LLCC PLACED UNDER NORTHWEST EDGE OF DEVELOPING CDO. LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES EXPOSED TO WEST, WHICH IS ALMOST DEVOID OF ANY ORGANISED DEEP CONVECTION. SST AROUND 30C. CONVECTION WRAPS ABOUT 0.4 ON LOG10 YIELDING A DVORAK OF T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS. 05F IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF A 250HPA OUTFLOW AND IN AN AREA OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE. ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR OVER SYSTEM REMAINS WEAK AND DECREASING. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE 05F SOUTHWEST WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR TD05F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 05F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 050800 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

James, or a moderator, should change the heading to "TC 08P" or something allegoric.

[James]

It looks to be consolidating a little more now. I notice that the forecast track takes it towards Australia. Is there much chance of a landfall there? Or is it more likely to recurve away from the coast?

[SafeStorm.org]

We start working on tropical cyclone 08P. The goal is to calm it down and turn it back to the North-East.

Vladimir
SafeStorm.org

[Hurricanehink]

We start working on tropical cyclone 08P. The goal is to calm it down and turn it back to the North-East.

Vladimir
SafeStorm.org

??? Did I miss something?

[P.K.]

Q.: This is impossible. Do you really think I will trust all this?
A.: We address this web site to those experts, who can already see an unexpected significant deviation (or weakening) in storms and hurricanes tracks. And we post our announcements before the deviations are registered by the world trusted meteorological services.

Q.: Interesting. But how does it work?
A.: We use a special technique -- a kind of meditation.

Q.: I want to study your technique. Can you teach me?
A.: No. We do not take students now. Sorry.

Not really sure what to say about that. No point in me asking about this again (I've already done so on UKWW).

[James]

Can you provide a link to that? I wouldn't mind reading what you said.

[P.K.]

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/thread-view.asp?threadid=17724&posts=7 - Haven't had a reply yet. Bear in mind that Stu (He was on Channel 5 recently if you saw that tornado programme) chases hurricanes so he knows what he is talking about.

Edit - I'm sure he got asked on Net-Weather before as well but I can't remember what the reply was.

[James]

Thanks for the link!

[P.K.]

Feel free to post on Net-Weather. (Sometimes with these things I end up just talking to myself )

[James]

I might just do that. Safestorm has posted on most weather forums I can find. Sparked off quite a few topics.

[HURAKAN]

Kerry is back! Well, I mean, as a tropical cyclone; TC 08P has intensified into Tropical Cyclone Kerry with winds around 45 mph. The Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre is already paying close attention to the system which could pose a threat to Australia's East Coast.

[img]http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/65643.JPG [/img]

[Guest]

Hope it goes out to sea... Has anyone else here been to Australia? I lived in Canberra (Its the capital... NOT SYDNEY! lol) for three years. Gorgeous. We tried to visit as much of the country as we could, and it was amazing. We stayed at Club Med at Lindamin (or Lindamen... not sure) island in the Great Barrier Reef. Also stayed in Townsville while in the GBR area. The reef is absolutely amazing- the best in the world (coming from someone whos been to the Hawaiian and Carribean reefs). Hopefully the reefs don't get touched.