Cold air in Canada waiting to spilll South

[CaptinCrunch]

From Quebec to Calgary the current temps range from 9 above to -36 below, and means southern Canada is filling with very cold polor air. Some of this very cold air has made it's way into the central plains as some forecasted lows in NEB are for temps to be near zero Wednesday night and high's Thursday in the upper teens. Over the next 10 days we will see waves of this polor air drop into the Northern and Central U.S as storm systems move across the middle and Southern U.S drawing down this colder air.

[aggiecutter]

the dam will break in about 10 days . when it does, the weather paradigm shift will be dramatic across the southern plains. One day it'll be 70 in Dallas. The next day it'll be in the 20's with wintry precip. I think the change will be that dramatic.

The 12z Ensembles look very cold for all the plains after 192hrs.

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 10412.html

[WhiteShirt]

the dam will break in about 10 days . when it does, the weather paradigm shift will be dramatic across the southern plains. One day it'll be 70 in Dallas. The next day it'll be in the 20's with wintry precip. I think the change will be that dramatic.

The 12z Ensembles look very cold for all the plains after 192hrs.

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 10412.html

What do you think it will be like for the Houston area? Thanks.

[CaptinCrunch]

the dam will break in about 10 days . when it does, the weather paradigm shift will be dramatic across the southern plains. One day it'll be 70 in Dallas. The next day it'll be in the 20's with wintry precip. I think the change will be that dramatic.

The 12z Ensembles look very cold for all the plains after 192hrs.

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 10412.html

What do you think it will be like for the Houston area? Thanks.

ABOUT THE SAME AS IT WAS AT CHRISTMAS AS FAR AS TEMPS GO, IT'S THE PRECIP THAT WILL BE THE WILDCARD.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Bring back the cold!

[PurdueWx80]

The Plains are pretty darn cold this morning, as cold as -39 in North Dakota and Minnesota!

[CaptinCrunch]

yes it is and like I said that cold air will come south!! NWS has said this morning that GFS modles under stated the cold air mass and cold front was faster moving in than expected. Temps are suppost to drop to the mid 30's by late afternoon today and a HARD freeze in the mid to lower 20's will be the case. by next week the warm weather will return to the Central Plains and Texas but it wont last long this time. Major changes are coming by 17th.

[jeff]

Will be watching very closely arctic air plunge starting around the 14th. Very cold temps will build over SW Canada and may plunge southward along the front range the week of the 17-21. Could be extremely cold.

[CaptinCrunch]

Jeff,

Yes by the 3rd week of January we may very well have to deal with the same thing that the central plains are dealing with now. The PV will drop into Southwestern Canada and down over the Northwest and may bring the coldest Temps in 100 years from Seattle WA. down to Portland OR. from there the PV looks to move eastward and sit over Southcentral Canada. There's a soild chance that a ridge will form over the pacific setting up the "McFarland Effect" over the Central Plains but this time more to the west and that will open the flood gate for us to see some of the coldest temps since December of 89.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Jeff,

Yes by the 3rd week of January we may very well have to deal with the same thing that the central plains are dealing with now. The PV will drop into Southwestern Canada and down over the Northwest and may bring the coldest Temps in 100 years from Seattle WA. down to Portland OR. from there the PV looks to east over Southern Canada. There's a soild chance that a ridge will form over the pacific setting up the "McFarland Effect" over the Central Plains but this tims more to the west and that will open the flood gate for us to see some of the coldest temps since December of 89.

If that happens, then I can deal another few days with this 80 degree and windy April like stuff we have right now.

Record snow and maybe record cold and all within a month. That would be cool!

[CaptinCrunch]

[sertorius]

The Euro 10 days shows the same thing-the cold air is spilling down into the central plains-the mrf from 240-360 shows a couple of plunges of cold air-however, it only lasts about 6 days per the mrf and there is moderation in between-by 372 hours, Kansas City is back in the 50's. Will be interesting to watch the euro the next 4-5 days and see what it shows-there def. seems to be a colder pattern that is a bit longer sustained comming late next week-what I mean, is that it may last 5-6 days instead of 2 like it has-although we will be cold in Lawrence the next 2 days, we will be back to 50 by Sunday/Monday-Hopefully this next shot can hang on for 5-6 days instead of 48 hours-will be interesting to watch.

[aggiecutter]

The mid-month air mass will be of Siberian orgin. Lots of records are liable to be broken from Bismark to Brownsville with that air mass--definately a bigticket item to keep an eye on.

The 12z operational GFS is beginning to pick-up on the cold air intrusion into Texas in about 10 days.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _228.shtml

[gboudx]

aggie/CC, is this something the models have been consistently picking up on? I've been out of touch with things weather related while I enjoyed a nice holiday break.

[Portastorm]

I'd like to believe this possibility ... but I remain a bit skeptical until the longer range modeling trends more consistent.

Hope you guys are right though.

Meanwhile this little ol' front today has made things interesting. At 1 p.m. we had a temperature spread of 22 degrees within a span of 12 miles of metropolitan Austin. Cool (literally!) stuff.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I hope the good ol' GFS is right this time. With the snow cover now in the plains, this Arctic Attack will have little chance to modify unlike the last one at Christmas. Still that was not a bad airmass for us down here.

[weatherfan]

So far from what I have been seeing this year has been a year for exstreams in the weather.First summer with all the historecal hurricanes that hit Florda and the south East.Now going into this winter.When end of December when we did get that sort cold outbreak it was very exstream.And now the warmth we are seeing this month is in some case in exstream porpotions.With heavey snows in the Ohio and mid west.Heck even parts of VA and the Eastern shore of Maryland has more snow then even the big citys this year and then big snows in Texas.It would it surpise me that when we do change this pattern late month and febuarey if the exstreams we have been seeing this year.That we see the exstreams but the oppersite of this month with the warmth to the cold next month.Most anlogs have faverd this outcome this year.Frist hafe what we are seeing now mid west and Ohio.Seacond hafe East coast and Northeast.Almost like a two parter this winter split in hafe but in different locations of the nation.Bottom line this is a everybody winter when its all said and done with.Because it could only take many in Febuary and March 1 or 2 major winter storms.And all at once many citys are normal to above.Just like Ohio and the mid west have seen in December and Januarey this year so far.So while it is depressing right now for those in the east.No one sould be writeing off winter by a long shot yet.Because as the old saying gos becareful what you wish for.Because you might yet just get it come next months.

[frankthetank]

I'd just like to see the sun again...

[aggiecutter]

I will repeat once again. This will be big-ticket item. The models are just now catching onto it---EURO, GFS Ensembles, and its operational model. With a lot of snow and ice on the ground in the northern and central plains, this air mass will modify very little before it reaches Texas the middle of next week.

[jkt21787]

Have to agree with you Aggie, with the snow and ice pack now over much of the plains states, there will be much less modifying with this airmass than the Xmas time fronts, not to mention the airmass already looks colder to begin with!

Too soon to tell whether this will be record-breaker cold, but this certainly has the most potential we have seen this winter so far. Let's hope the NAO goes negative and PNA goes postiive as several are suggesting.